S&P 500 CASH
SPX CASH: DailyProjected Support and Resistance levels: High - 1164; Low - 1153
JUNE SP:
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JUNE SP:
SPX CASH:
SPX CASH:
Current SPX Index Positions:
Mid-term (6-8 weeks) = NEUTRAL
Short-term (1 day-3 weeks) = 100% BEARISH from 1157.16 (avg price)
From previous outlook: "The SPX continued to push higher offof Friday’s bullish reversal bar, hitting an intraday high of 1162.87 and alsoclosing at or near the highs for the day - which we know should lead to some additionalupside movement in Tuesday’s session. The problem here was volume, which came in atonly 1.55 billion shares and is a 17% contraction from Friday’s levels and can be abearish indication for the short-term, though I will note that this will probably be lessreliable ahead of Tuesday’s fed meeting.
At today’s close the 20 day cycle has confirmed a downside projectionto 1121.66 - 1129.12 SPX CASH, which is good through the closing of trading on May 11,2005. Of note is that this projection only has a 68% probabilities of being hit - andwould also be invalidated by a daily close above 1165.30 SPX CASH. Since we are only about3 points away from this price level at today’s close, it is ‘iffy’ whetheror not it will actually be taken out on a closing basis - but the statistical notes fromthis cycle are suggesting that it will be taken out on an intraday basis, as normal upphases with this component have seen rallies of 2.7% or better, which would equal 1166.82SPX CASH here."
Current analysis: Last night I noted that the odds favored higherhighs would be seen in today’s session - but that the weak volume figures seen onMonday were a short-term bearish indication overall. Also noted was the fact that the 1166area might be tried on this swing up, as the greater majority of 20day cycle up phaseshave not peaked before the 8 trading day mark and before rallying 2.7% or more off theirbottoms. Today the SPX hit 1166.89 at the session peak, which is right at a 2.7% rally offthe 1136.15 swing low for this component. Looking at volume, today’s rally to ahigher high on the daily chart came on a volume of 1.67 billion shares, which is a6% increase from Monday’s figures and probably indicates that we are not done withthe 1166-1173 area here for the short-term. Even said, today’s overall volume isstill lighter than the volume numbers seen on 4/29 and are light overall for any period -which is more indicative of a countertrend affair.
The problem with that is that we are flirting with the VTL-3 line on ourdaily chart (we reversed off this line in today’s session), and a daily close abovethis line - if seen - is our indication that the combo of the larger cycles have bottomedand have turned up. To close above this VTL line would require a daily close above the1168-1169 area for Wednesday’s session, something of note going into tomorrow. Inother words, if the current rally is going to stall at or near current resistance(1166-1173) then tomorrow looks to be key day to do it, otherwise the probabilities for aclose above trendline resistance are growing each day.
NASDAQ 100 CASH
Daily Projected Support andResistance levels: High, 1442 - Low, 1424
5-Day Projected Support and Resistance levels: High, 1433 - Low, 1381
Monthly Projected Support and Resistance levels: High, 1462 - Low, 1353
Current NDX Index Positions:
Mid-Term (6-8 weeks) = 25% BULLISH from 1417.00 (4/28/05)
Short-term (1 day - 3 weeks) = 60% BEARISH from 1436.00 (intraday today)
From previous outlook: "The NDX is likely to try another runat 1433-1436 resistance in Tuesday’s session. As per last night, if the upper end ofthis range holds the action on a closing basis, then the odds will favor some downsideinto later in the week for another try at the 1394 swing low from last week - which thevolume analysis from last night suggests is going to be seen again at some point - eventhough a test of short-term resistance looks likely to be seen first."
Current analysis: The NDX tested noted resistance at the 1433-1436area in today’s session, hitting an intraday high here of 1436.60 on a late-afternoonprice peak before consolidating slightly lower into the closing bell. Volume here came inat 1.83 billion shares, which is a 15% expansion from Monday’s levels and suggeststhat today’s high is going to be re-tested or exceeded again in Wednesday’ssession. As per recent notes here, if the 1433-1436 area holds the current upside on aclosing basis, then the odds are going to favor a test of last week’s 1394 swing lowat some point later in the week. Having said that, with today’s closing volume actionI am not going to be surprised by a test of the 1440-1448 ‘make or break’resistance region at some point on Wednesday. Why? Number one is the fact thattomorrow’s daily projected resistance high is now at 1442, and secondly is the factthat today’s move to a higher high on the daily chart came on increasing volume.Whether we will close above first resistance (1433-1436) is an unknown for now, but evenwith that some test of last week’s lows are likely to be seen at some point inthe not-too-distant future, as that 1394 low was also made on confirming volume.We’ll see how Wednesday’s session plays out and then take another look at ittomorrow night.
Jim Curry
Market Turns Advisory
Email: jcurry@cycle-wave.com
Disclaimer - The financial markets are risky. Investing is risky. Pastperformance does not guarantee future performance. The foregoing has been prepared solelyfor informational purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy or sell anysecurity. Opinions are based on historical research and data believed reliable, but thereis no guarantee that future results will be profitable. The methods used to form opinionsare highly probable and as you follow them for some time you can gain confidence in them.The market can and will do the unexpected, use the sell stops provided to assist in riskavoidance. Not responsible for errors or omissions. Copyright 2005, Jim Curry.
