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[Rock]

A few weeks ago I mentioned that the monthly HUI reads "sell". I made no forecast but I now have a renewed respect for the monthly charts. Looking at HUI monthly now, it of course is in full blast plunge. I want to know when the next major leg to much higher highs will start, not shorter term trades here, so I began looking at the whole bull from 2001. The 1st leg up lasted 18 months and corrected for 13. The 2nd leg must be measured back to the beginning of the bull and lasted 36 months. It has now corrected around 17. This correction must get in the neighborhood of 26 months which would take us to next Feb. (give or take 1 or 2 mo.) before new HUI highs. Imagine that! It makes me sick. That's why I think it's plausible. I could list a dozen or more writers declaring an immenent rally. I think there is too much enthusiasm, anticipation, greed. By next winter nearly all eagerness will be dead, I think we're (I) being fooled by the market. Trading rallies yes, new highs not soon. Further I note that each of the 3 big rallies ( 02, 03, 04) lasted 5, 7, and 6 months. We could easily run up till next Christmas and still not see new highs. I , therefor , am going to try to trade the rallies with suspicion rather than expecting THE BIG ONE. Which obviously is how one should always trade. By the way, this rally/ correction time ratio puts the US equity bottom at 2007. 1929 is 8 years up 3 down so 2000 was 18 up anticipating 7 down. Your disappointed greed monger, Paul

[colion]

I , therefor , am going to try to trade the rallies with suspicion rather than
expecting THE BIG ONE.  Which obviously is how one should always trade.

I also think that we could get a bounce in here. But I don't think it will amount to much before resuming its march to the 153 area.