The VRTrader.com VR Platinum Newsletter Friday 5/20/05
"Tools for the High Performance Trader"
Copyright © 2005, All rights reserved.
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PORTFOLIO UPDATE | by Mark Leibovit
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VR Platinum Portfolio Update
Friday, May 20, 2005
11:00 AM EST
Traders are taking profits this morning as the indices are trading in the
red on this options expiration Friday. Volume is setting a healthy pace
and breadth is negative.
A round of buying has unfolded in the last few minutes to push the Nasdaq
closer to the unchanged level, while the Dow is still languishing firmly
in the red. The leadership being shown by tech the last few sessions
still appears to be intact. This market is not a friendly place for
shorts to be right now, as any sectors that show weakness quickly catch a
bid and are supported.
We will see how the internals look should a decent correction unfold to
look for signs that more than just simple profit taking is developing.
Nasdaq Adv/Dec 925/1678
NYSE Adv/Dec 1004/1852
Down volume leads up volume by 11:9 on the Nasdaq and by 8:5 on the NYSE.
June Gold is down 3.50 at 417.30.
July Crude Oil is up .01 at 48.75.
June US Dollar Index is up .56 at 86.66.
June T-Bonds are down 5/32 at 115 13/16.
New Fills
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DF - Short @ 38.24
AAPL - Long @ 37.34
AWA - Long @ 5.35
New Exits
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QTWW - Exited @ 3.44
DF - Exited @ 38.70
New Cancels
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XMSR - Cancelled
XMSR - Note: Very close to target before long entry achieved.
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WATCHLIST
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LONGS
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SIRF - SIRF Technology Holdings 11.95
COMPANY PROFILE:
WHY WE LIKE IT:
SIRF exploded out of a pullback on Friday, March 11 with very heavy
buying.
SiRF Technology Holdings Inc. is a supplier of global positioning system
(GPS) semiconductor solutions designed to provide location awareness
capabilities in high-volume mobile consumer and commercial applications.
The Company develops semiconductor solutions designed to utilize GPS to
enable location awareness in high-volume mobile consumer devices and
commercial systems. It markets and sells its products in four target
platforms: wireless handheld, automotive, portable computing devices and
dedicated or embedded consumer and commercial devices. The Company's
products have been integrated into such mobile consumer devices as mobile
phones, automobile navigation systems, personal digital assistants,
handheld navigation devices and GPS-based peripheral devices, as well as
into commercial systems, such as fleet management and road-tolling
systems. Its product lines are available to original equipment
manufacturer (OEM) customers in four forms: chipsets, modules, IP cores
and software.<BR>
<BR>
POTENTIAL TRIGGER:
Wait for a break of the downtrend line which is currently around 12. SIRF
will probably consolidate some here. Aggressive investors can start
accumulating shares now. Place your stop below the March 8 low of 10.51.
Looking for 16 - 18.
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PTF - Petrofund Energy Trust 14.62
COMPANY PROFILE:
WHY WE LIKE IT:
This is a Canadian trust that pays out well on dividends. It averaged
about a .12/share monthly dividend in 2004. It has bounced sharply higher
after finding support at its 200 day moving average.
Petrofund Energy Trust (formerly NCE Petrofund) is an open-ended
investment trust whose primary source of income is from 99% net royalty
interests granted by its two wholly owned subsidiaries, PC and PVT
(formerly Ultima Ventures Trust). PC acquires, manages and disposes of
petroleum and natural gas rights and royalties and related property rights
and interests located primarily in western Canada. PC also holds the legal
interest to all properties beneficially owned by PVT. PVT receives 99% of
the net revenue from these properties, which it in turn pays out to
Petrofund in the form of the 99% net royalty noted above. In addition, PC
may acquire royalties or other property interests or securities of other
resource issuers. The Trust may also purchase directly or indirectly
securities of oil and gas companies, oil and gas properties and other
related assets. On June 16, 2004, PC acquired Ultima.
POTENTIAL TRIGGER:
Buy at market with a stop below the March 30 low at 13.40. This is one
that could provide good income AND price appreciation.
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DHF - Dreyfus High Yield Strategies Fund 4.41
COMPANY PROFILE:
WHY WE LIKE IT:
DHF has tested its March 23 low and rebounded with a positive VR.
POTENTIAL TRIGGER:
Buy at market with a stop below the March 23 low at 4.23. We are not
looking to get rich off of this one. Looking for 4.70.
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GNA - Gerdau Ameristeel 4.56
COMPANY PROFILE:
WHY WE LIKE IT:
We believe GNA is making its seven week cycle low in this area. It staged
a decent looking reversal up on May 17. Steel stocks are very much
oversold at this point and GNA looks like a coiled spring ready to bounce
back.
Gerdau Ameristeel Corporation is a large minimill steel producer in North
America, with annual manufacturing capacity of over 8.4 million tons of
mill finished steel products. Through its vertically integrated network of
15 minimills (including one 50%-owned minimill), 16 scrap-recycling
facilities and 42 downstream operations, Gerdau Ameristeel primarily
serves customers in the eastern two thirds of North America. The Company's
products are generally sold to steel service centers, steel fabricators or
directly to original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) for use in a variety
of industries, including construction, cellular and electrical
transmission, automotive, mining and equipment manufacturing. Gerdau
Ameristeel is an indirect subsidiary of, and controlled by, Brazilian
steelmaker, Gerdau S.A. The Company's operations are segmented into two
operating divisions: Minimills and Downstream operations.
POTENTIAL TRIGGER:
Buy at market with a stop below the May 17 low of 4.35. Target 6.00.
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SHORTS
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Sorry, no Short Watchlist to Report
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TIMER DIGEST MARKET SIGNALS
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For Thursday, May 19, 2005
STOCKS: Bullish
BONDS: Neutral
GOLD: Neutral
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CURRENT PORTFOLIO
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[Reserved for Subscribers]
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NEW PICKS
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Based on either Bullish or Bearish technical signals and the
Volume Reversal™ methodology, these stock picks look
primed to make a move. No trading system is 100% accurate and
care should be taken to consider market conditions before
entering any trade. Not all trades are suitable for all
investors and each investor should consider their own risk
profile before making a decision.
Format:
Symbol - Company Name
Buy @ = this is the strategic range picked by the VR staff.
Target: = estimated destination of equity during life of play.
Stop: = recommended* stop loss considering equity volatility.
*stop losses should be placed according to your own risk
tolerance.
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RISK MANAGEMENT STRATEGY
When a stock declines/rallies 1 point or more from the price at
which bought or sold short, we will raise/lower stop to cost. This
will limit the potential loss on a trade. For each additional 1
point move, a further adjustment is made.
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CURRENT BULLISH STOCK PICKS
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RNO - 5/18/04 - Long @ 1.24 Target: 2.00 Stop:
1.15
HIET - 1/28/05 - Long @ 1.03 Target: 1.70 Stop:
0.60
WEL - 2/18/05 - Long @ 1.18 Target: 1.75 Stop:
0.80
LUV - 5/5/05 - Long @ 15.10 Target: 16.40 Stop:
14.40
MDM - 5/5/05 - Buy @ 1.60-1.70 Target: 3.00 Stop:
1.25
GLFD - 5/6/05 - Long @ 2.75 Target: 3.25 Stop:
2.20
GM - 5/6/05 - Buy @ 27.75-28.25 Target: 34.70 Stop:
24.60
KO - 5/16/05 - Buy @ 44.60-44.70 Target: 48.00 Stop:
41.50
RMBS - 5/16/05 - Buy @ 14.25-14.35 Target: 17.00-18.00 Stop:
13.75
SIL - 5/16/05 - Long @ 11.74 Target: 14.00 Stop:
11.50
AEM - 5/17/05 - Long @ 11.18 Target: 13.00 Stop:
8.00
UCL - 5/18/05 - Long @ 54.85 Target: 58.00 Stop:
53.44
ALVR - 5/19/05 - Long @ 9.50 Target: 12.00 Stop:
9.20
FBR - 5/19/05 - Long @ 13.47 Target: 15.00-16.00 Stop:
11.85
HMY - 5/19/05 - Long @ 6.75 Target: 8.25-8.40 Stop:
5.95
AAPL - 5/20/05 - Long @ 37.34 Target: 40.75 Stop:
33.00
AWA - 5/20/05 - Long @ 5.35 Target: 8.00-9.00 Stop:
4.00
FNM - 5/20/05 - Buy @ 55.50-55.60 Target: 59.50 Stop:
53.00
STEM - 5/20/05 - Buy @ 3.30-3.50 Target: 4.50 Stop:
2.55
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CURRENT BULLISH INDEX PICKS
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HHH - 5/17/05 - Buy @ 53.45-53.55 Target: 57.00-58.00 Stop:
52.95
XLE - 5/18/05 - Long @ 39.66 Target: 42.00 Stop:
37.90
DIA - 5/19/05 - Buy @ 104.10-104.15 Target: 107.40 Stop:
103.85
IBB - 5/19/05 - Long @ 67.50 Target: 70.00 Stop:
65.90
IYW - 5/19/05 - Buy @ 44.20-44.25 Target: 47.00 Stop:
43.20
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CURRENT BEARISH STOCK PICKS
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N/A
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CURRENT BEARISH INDEX PICKS
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N/A
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EXITED BULLISH STOCK PICKS FOR THE PREVIOUS 30 DAYS
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RAD - Picked(3/11/05): 3.95 Exited(4/21/05): 3.89 Result: -0.06
IPT - Picked(3/31/05): 0.73 Exited(4/27/05): 0.60 Result: -0.13
AEM - Picked(4/11/05): 14.43 Exited(5/9/05): 13.07 Result: -1.36
JBLU - Picked(4/11/05): 19.90 Exited(4/21/05): 20.12 Result: 0.22
ERICY- Picked(4/12/05): 28.90 Exited(4/22/05): 31.06 Result: 2.16
STEM - Picked(4/13/05): 3.40 Exited(4/28/05): 3.02 Result: -0.38
NEM - Picked(4/18/05): 40.72 Exited(4/21/05): 40.91 Result: 0.19
IPSU - Picked(4/20/05): 13.60 Exited(4/22/05): 13.78 Result: 0.18
this - Picked(4/22/05): 27.30 Exited(4/27/05): 26.55 Result: -0.75
JBLU - Picked(4/22/05): 20.05 Exited(4/27/05): 19.22 Result: -0.83
IFX - Picked(4/25/05): 9.22 Exited(4/26/05): 8.83 Result: -0.39
AMHC - Picked(4/26/05): 37.90 Exited(5/6/05): 38.46 Result: 0.56
AMLN - Picked(4/26/05): 18.25 Exited(4/29/05): 17.04 Result: -1.21
IPSU - Picked(4/26/05): 13.50 Exited(5/5/05): 12.90 Result: -0.60
AEXCA- Picked(5/2/05): 30.60 Exited(5/3/05): 28.95 Result: -1.65
IVAN - Picked(5/2/05): 2.36 Exited(5/6/05): 2.44 Result: 0.08
LUFK - Picked(5/2/05): 31.20 Exited(5/3/05): 30.40 Result: -0.80
HDI - Picked(5/3/05): 47.50 Exited(5/6/05): 49.00 Result: 1.50
ASA - Picked(5/4/05): 35.00 Exited(5/9/05): 35.05 Result: 0.05
HL - Picked(5/4/05): 4.83 Exited(5/9/05): 4.82 Result: -0.01
PDG - Picked(5/4/05): 13.50 Exited(5/9/05): 13.88 Result: 0.38
QTWW - Picked(5/9/05): 3.68 Exited(5/20/05): 3.44 Result: -0.24
GRU - Picked(5/10/05): 18.25 Exited(5/11/05): 16.45 Result: -1.80
IWOV - Picked(5/13/05): 7.50 Exited(5/16/05): 7.25 Result: -0.25
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EXITED BULLISH INDEX PICKS FOR THE PREVIOUS 30 DAYS
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NYC - Picked(4/20/05): 64.46 Exited(4/22/05): 64.36 Result: -0.10
QQQQ - Picked(4/26/05): 35.65 Exited(4/26/05): 35.35 Result: -0.30
SPY - Picked(5/2/05): 116.45 Exited(5/4/05): 117.01 Result: 0.56
HHH - Picked(5/5/05): 53.80 Exited(5/6/05): 54.71 Result: 0.91
SPY - Picked(5/5/05): 116.85 Exited(5/6/05): 117.64 Result: 0.79
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EXITED BEARISH STOCK PICKS FOR THE PREVIOUS 30 DAYS
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SHLD - Picked(4/20/05): 135.74 Exited(4/21/05): 131.75 Result: 3.99
PHM - Picked(4/21/05): 69.50 Exited(4/21/05): 69.71 Result: -0.21
FWRD - Picked(4/22/05): 24.20 Exited(4/25/05): 24.33 Result: -0.13
GR - Picked(4/27/05): 37.62 Exited(4/28/05): 38.90 Result: -1.28
PHM - Picked(4/27/05): 71.85 Exited(4/28/05): 72.60 Result: -0.75
DHI - Picked(4/28/05): 29.67 Exited(4/29/05): 30.24 Result: -0.57
PHM - Picked(4/28/05): 69.17 Exited(4/29/05): 70.91 Result: -1.74
RYL - Picked(5/10/05): 62.84 Exited(5/16/05): 60.25 Result: 2.59
DF - Picked(5/20/05): 38.24 Exited(5/20/05): 38.70 Result: -0.46
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EXITED BEARISH INDEX PICKS FOR THE PREVIOUS 30 DAYS
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DIA - Picked(4/20/05): 100.30 Exited(4/21/05): 101.14 Result: -0.84
QQQQ - Picked(4/20/05): 34.84 Exited(4/21/05): 35.16 Result: -0.32
SPY - Picked(4/27/05): 114.86 Exited(4/29/05): 115.40 Result: -0.54
XLE - Picked(4/27/05): 41.91 Exited(5/2/05): 40.60 Result: 1.31
QQQQ - Picked(4/29/05): 34.62 Exited(4/29/05): 34.89 Result: -0.27
OIH - Picked(5/4/05): 89.54 Exited(5/4/05): 89.54 Result: 0.00
XLE - Picked(5/4/05): 40.31 Exited(5/4/05): 40.64 Result: -0.33
OIH - Picked(5/5/05): 93.05 Exited(5/11/05): 91.13 Result: 1.92
SPY - Picked(5/5/05): 117.11 Exited(5/11/05): 117.11 Result: 0.00
VNQ - Picked(5/9/05): 55.05 Exited(5/9/05): 55.60 Result: -0.55
QQQQ - Picked(5/11/05): 35.41 Exited(5/12/05): 36.06 Result: -0.65
QQQQ - Picked(5/12/05): 36.09 Exited(5/13/05): 36.25 Result: -0.16
SPY - Picked(5/12/05): 117.23 Exited(5/16/05): 116.14 Result: 1.09
IBB - Picked(5/16/05): 66.65 Exited(5/18/05): 67.14 Result: -0.49
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DISCLAIMER
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This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of VRTrader.com may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
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staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
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Copyright © 2005 VRTrader.com.
About Mark Lebovit
