The Dow finished the week up 331 points while the Nasdaq 100 NDX gained 57. All 34 sectors were up. Action for the week was plus 1842. The Bears caved in. The rally in the Nasdaq took hold and the NDX scurried to the top of the broad based index ranking.
Expiration week always adds a little fuel to the fire and our short term numbers are very overbought indicating the need for a rest this coming week. The Bears of a few weeks ago are now talking about highs for the year and a break out of the trading range to the upside. We said last month the huge volatility was an indication of a change in market direction. In this case from down to up and that is playing out. We applaud the leadership of the Nasdaq last week but still feel the most bullish case is a quiet market and of course a quiet FOMC. Greenspan will squeeze all the inflation risk he can out of the economic sponge before his retirement in January 2006.
Rydex funds- Took more than a 5% profit on the long Dow and NDX funds.
Short term - Overbought
INTERMEDIATE TERM TRENDS -- NDX, DJIA & SPX Up
INTERMEDIATE OSCILLATOR -- Oversold Buy April 18th
REIT’s- The top ranked sector with many of these stocks hitting all time highs. Surprisingly some of the dividend yields are still at 6% which may explain the rally. You have to think rents will outpace the FOMC’s ability to raise interest rates to buy into this sector. Some of the lower dividends may actually provide a better total return.
Semiconductor SOX- Fell back into the middle of the ranking even with a big run up in price last week. The leaders are still Marvell MRVL, Texas Instruments TXN and Freescale Semiconductor FSL’B. With stocks at the top of a trading range there is no clear break out yet.
Oil Patch XOI, XNG, OSX- Found some support last week. The earnings built up over the last year are not going to disappear even if oil drops to $35 a barrel. These stocks should be good for a trade here.
Consumer CMR- Vaulted to the top ten ranking with good earnings reports and softer oil prices. Pepsi PEP, Gillette G and Altria MO are hitting relative highs. Walmart WMT and AIG are near yearly lows.
Pharmaceuticals DRG- Running into some profit taking but still in the top ten ranking. We will see if this sector has enough new support to carry it through this week.SUBSCRIPTION INFO
A sample copy of the entire SectorVue newsletter via email may be obtained by calling 703/242 1076 or email sectorvue@cox.net . Requests for a sample fax must include full name and voice phone number. Subscriptions are $500 per quarter for individuals $750 per quarter for offices. Rydex alerts priced separately. This report is for educational purposes only and do not constitute "investment advice".
| as of May 20th,2005 | ||||||
| Broad Based | Symbol | Close | Wkly chg | %Ovrb/s | ||
| Nasdaq 100 | NDX | 1528.06 | 57.43 | 46 | ||
| Midcap | MID | 662.93 | 26.87 | 22 | ||
| SP 500 | SPX | 1189.28 | 35.23 | 15 | ||
| Institutional | XII | 588.02 | 15.99 | 12 | ||
| SP 100 | OEX | 565.75 | 15.59 | 9 | ||
| Small Cap | SML | 319.09 | 14.13 | 1 | ||
| Dow Jones Industrial | DJIA | 10471.91 | 331.79 | -1 | ||
| Volatility | VIX | 13.14 | -3.18 | -14 | ||
| Thirty Year Rate | TYX | 44.38 | -0.46 | -62 | ||
| Dow Commodities | &AIG | 146.08 | -1.25 | -64 | ||
| Rank | Sectors | Chg Rank | Symbol | Close | Wkly Chg | %Ovrb/s |
| 1 | REIT | 2 | NLR | 124.79 | 5.61 | 83 |
| 2 | Biotech | -1 | BTK | 548.25 | 15.52 | 75 |
| 3 | Wireless | 7 | WMH | 55.89 | 2.34 | 74 |
| 4 | Internet | 2 | DOT | 194.07 | 9.56 | 69 |
| 5 | Defense Industry | -1 | DFI | 934.75 | 29.84 | 63 |
| 6 | Consumer | 13 | CMR | 590.92 | 17.31 | 53 |
| 7 | Gaming | 15 | SGV | 152.5 | 10.15 | 52 |
| 8 | Computer | -3 | XCI | 698.91 | 23.66 | 50 |
| 9 | Pharmaceutical | -7 | DRG | 331.83 | 1.47 | 39 |
| 10 | Networking | -1 | NWX | 213.41 | 10.99 | 37 |
| 11 | Computer Software | 1 | GSO | 161.60 | 8.09 | 35 |
| 12 | Dividend Yield | 3 | DVY | 61.24 | 1.84 | 33 |
| 13 | Banking | 0 | BKX | 99.63 | 3.26 | 33 |
| 14 | Insurance | -7 | KIX | 136.3 | 3.74 | 27 |
| 15 | Utility | -4 | UTY | 400.13 | 8.62 | 25 |
| 16 | Semiconductor | -8 | SOX | 425.23 | 17.00 | 25 |
| 17 | Airline | 9 | XAL | 48.68 | 4.34 | 24 |
| 18 | Technology | -4 | TXX | 577.78 | 26.05 | 20 |
| 19 | Housing | 6 | HGX | 488.06 | 30.62 | 16 |
| 20 | Broker/Dealer | -4 | XBD | 146.32 | 6.65 | 14 |
| 21 | Telecom | -1 | XTC | 677.07 | 26.57 | 10 |
| 22 | Investment Mgmt | -5 | SMQ | 421.23 | 16.35 | 7 |
| 23 | Service | 0 | GSV | 130.16 | 3.42 | 4 |
| 24 | Retail | -3 | IRH | 93.72 | 4.84 | 3 |
| 25 | Transportation | -1 | IYT | 65.12 | 3.88 | 1 |
| 26 | Disk Drive | -8 | DDX | 105.63 | 3.79 | -19 |
| 27 | Cyclical | 0 | CYC | 719.99 | 33.42 | -19 |
| 28 | Cable | 0 | SCQ | 323.16 | 7.60 | -27 |
| 29 | Natural Gas | 2 | XNG | 313.32 | 11.75 | -29 |
| 30 | China | -1 | CZH | 94.4 | 1.53 | -39 |
| 31 | Basic Materials | -1 | XLB | 27.89 | 0.88 | -39 |
| 32 | Oil Service | 2 | OSX | 128.04 | 3.08 | -52 |
| 33 | Gold/Silver | 0 | XAU | 80.73 | 1.74 | -53 |
| 34 | Oil | -2 | XOI | 796.84 | 9.52 | -55 |
