The VRTrader.com VR Platinum Newsletter Monday 6/6/05
"Tools for the High Performance Trader"
Copyright © 2005, All rights reserved.
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LEIBOVIT FILES | by Mark Leibovit
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Leibovit Files
Monday, June 06, 2005
Opening Comments
Economic Calendar June 6-11:
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Monday, June 6:
No reports.
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Tuesday, June 7:
3:00 pm - Consumer Credit for April
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Wednesday, June 8:
10:00 am - Wholesale Investories for April
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Thursday, June 9:
8:30 am - Initial Job Claims for June 4
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Friday, June 10
8:30 am - Export Prices for May
8:30 am - Import Prices for May
8:30 am - Trade Balance April
2:00 pm - Treasury Budget May
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A 'cyclical change point' due Friday and/or today and midweek's 'Weird
Wally Wednesday' phenomenon may be coincident with a market retracement
this week, but it may be modest in view of the current 'Summer Rally'
which gained some upward momentum last week. Blue Chip indexes lost
upside momentum after Tuesday while Nasdaq carried momentum into Thursday
and the Russell 2000 and S&P 400 Midcap extened strength into Friday.
Last week also saw a near parabolic rise in market favorite Google (GOOG)
result in a downside reversal on Friday.
Stepping back, there is no clear sign the market has peaked on an
intermediate basis, but there are short-term clues that we may now see a
retracement before moving higher. Ideally, we correct for part of this
coming week.
Friday's employement numbers supposedly raised concerns that with the
economy flashing mixed signals in recent weeks we may indeed be heading
into a slowdown. The contrary view, of course, is that we've been
climbing a Wall of Worry and any 'bad news' simply reconfirms the uptrend
and any subsequent sell-off provides a buying opportunity. We're
somewhere in the middle here, unwilling to buy stocks without a greater
retracement, but unwilling to get short without extremely tight stops.
The Dollar Index saw volume slow into Tuesday's 88.41 recovery high
leading us to believe that we could see more downside action this coming
week ahead of further gains. If true, gold and gold shares may see more
upward resiliency.
We've received numerous emails asking whether we support a short trade in
high-flyer Google (GOOG). While there has been no significant downside
volume in the stock, it does appear to be suffering from some vertigo at
current prices. Short-term downside objective could be to 265.00. We're
not officially recommending it as a short candidate, but it's awfully
tempting.
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PORTFOLIO UPDATE | by Mark Leibovit
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VR Platinum Portfolio Update
Monday, June 06, 2005
Pre-Market
New Buy/Short
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BBH - Short @ Market. Target: 163.00. Stop: 172.55
BBH - Note: Key Reversal Friday on increasing volume is our technical trigger.
EFA - Short @ Market. Target: 152.60-153.00. Stop: 157.30
IWM - Short @ Market. Target: 119.75-120.00. Stop: 124.85
RTH - Short @ Market. Target: 91.00-91.50. Stop: 95.65
New Changes
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XMSR - Changed Entry Range From 32.50-32.60 To 32.00-32.15
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LONGS
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PTF - Petrofund Energy Trust 14.62
COMPANY PROFILE:
WHY WE LIKE IT:
This is a Canadian trust that pays out well on dividends. It averaged
about a .12/share monthly dividend in 2004. It has bounced sharply higher
after finding support at its 200 day moving average.
Petrofund Energy Trust (formerly NCE Petrofund) is an open-ended
investment trust whose primary source of income is from 99% net royalty
interests granted by its two wholly owned subsidiaries, PC and PVT
(formerly Ultima Ventures Trust). PC acquires, manages and disposes of
petroleum and natural gas rights and royalties and related property rights
and interests located primarily in western Canada. PC also holds the legal
interest to all properties beneficially owned by PVT. PVT receives 99% of
the net revenue from these properties, which it in turn pays out to
Petrofund in the form of the 99% net royalty noted above. In addition, PC
may acquire royalties or other property interests or securities of other
resource issuers. The Trust may also purchase directly or indirectly
securities of oil and gas companies, oil and gas properties and other
related assets. On June 16, 2004, PC acquired Ultima.
POTENTIAL TRIGGER:
Buy at market with a stop below the March 30 low at 13.40. This is one
that could provide good income AND price appreciation.
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GNA - Gerdau Ameristeel 4.56
COMPANY PROFILE:
WHY WE LIKE IT:
We believe GNA is making its seven week cycle low in this area. It staged
a decent looking reversal up on May 17. Steel stocks are very much
oversold at this point and GNA looks like a coiled spring ready to bounce
back.
Gerdau Ameristeel Corporation is a large minimill steel producer in North
America, with annual manufacturing capacity of over 8.4 million tons of
mill finished steel products. Through its vertically integrated network of
15 minimills (including one 50%-owned minimill), 16 scrap-recycling
facilities and 42 downstream operations, Gerdau Ameristeel primarily
serves customers in the eastern two thirds of North America. The Company's
products are generally sold to steel service centers, steel fabricators or
directly to original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) for use in a variety
of industries, including construction, cellular and electrical
transmission, automotive, mining and equipment manufacturing. Gerdau
Ameristeel is an indirect subsidiary of, and controlled by, Brazilian
steelmaker, Gerdau S.A. The Company's operations are segmented into two
operating divisions: Minimills and Downstream operations.
POTENTIAL TRIGGER:
Buy at market with a stop below the May 17 low of 4.35. Target 6.00.
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CALM - Cal-Maine Foods Inc 6.02
COMPANY PROFILE:
WHY WE LIKE IT:
Cal-Maine has seen an extended, relentless decline over the last couple of
months. It formed a bullish outside bar on Wednesday, May 25. Momentum
indicators are also showing a bullish divergence.
Cal-Maine Foods, Inc., is primarily engaged in the production, cleaning,
grading, packaging and distribution of fresh shell eggs for sale to shell
egg retailers. The Company had sales of approximately 605 million dozen
shell eggs during the fiscal year ended May 29, 2004 (fiscal 2004). It
primarily markets shell eggs in the southwestern, southeastern,
mid-western and mid-Atlantic regions of the United States. The Company
markets its shell eggs through its distribution network to a diverse group
of customers, including national and regional grocery store chains, club
stores, foodservice distributors and egg product manufacturers. The
Company also produces and markets value-added specialty shell eggs in the
United States. Specialty shell eggs include reduced cholesterol, cage free
and organic eggs.
POTENTIAL TRIGGER:
Buy at market with a stop below the May 25 low of 5.72. Target 9.00.
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WJCI - WJ Communications Inc 1.91
COMPANY PROFILE:
WHY WE LIKE IT:
WJCI has been rattling around its May 13 low for almost two weeks now. It
tested the low on May 25 and closed higher on above average volume. It is
also in the vicinity of a low made in October 2004. Momentum indicators
are showing a bullish divergence as well. WJCI could take off soon.
WJ Communications, Inc. is a radio frequency (RF) devices company
providing radio frequency products worldwide to communications equipment
companies and service providers. The Company designs, develops and
manufacture products for both current and next-generation wireless and
wireline networks, defense and homeland security systems and RF
identification systems (RFID). Its products comprise highly functional RF
semiconductors, components and integrated assemblies that seek to address
the RF requirements of these various systems. The portfolio of RF
technology products offered by the Company includes amplifiers, mixers,
transistors and multi-chip modules, and RFID readers and reader modules.
The Company sells its products principally to distributors and original
equipment manufacturers, including their manufacturing subcontractors.
POTENTIAL TRIGGER:
Buy at market with a stop below the May 25 low of 1.76. Target 3.50.
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DPII - Discovery Partners International 3.00
COMPANY PROFILE:
WHY WE LIKE IT:
DPII put in a bullish outside day on June 2 with high volume after a
prolonged decline. We are looking for a solid move to the upside here.
There are bullish divergences on momentum indicators also.
Discovery Partners International, Inc. (DPII) engages in the development
and provision of libraries of drug-like compounds, instruments, consumable
supplies, drug discovery services, computational tools to generate
compound libraries, and testing and screening services for various drugs.
It offers instruments and consumables that automate the process of making
and storing collections, or libraries of chemical compounds; and chemistry
services, that include compounds, medical chemistry, drug discovery
informatics, and compound repository services. DPI also provides screening
services. In addition, the company designs and conducts assays or tests
that generate information about the effect of chemical compounds on a drug
target. DPI sells its products and services to pharmaceutical and
biopharmaceutical companies in the United States, Europe, Japan, and
India. The company was founded as IRORI in 1995 and changed its name to
Discovery Partners International, Inc. in 1998. Discovery Partners
International is headquartered in San Diego, California.
POTENTIAL TRIGGER:
Buy at market with a stop below the June 2 low of 2.81. Target $4.00.
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TIMER DIGEST MARKET SIGNALS
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For Thursday, June 02, 2005
STOCKS: Neutral
BONDS: Neutral
GOLD: Neutral
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CURRENT PORTFOLIO
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[Reserved for Subscribers]
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NEW PICKS
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Based on either Bullish or Bearish technical signals and the
Volume Reversal methodology, these stock picks look
primed to make a move. No trading system is 100% accurate and
care should be taken to consider market conditions before
entering any trade. Not all trades are suitable for all
investors and each investor should consider their own risk
profile before making a decision.
Format:
Symbol - Company Name
Buy @ = this is the strategic range picked by the VR staff.
Target: = estimated destination of equity during life of play.
Stop: = recommended* stop loss considering equity volatility.
*stop losses should be placed according to your own risk
tolerance.
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RISK MANAGEMENT STRATEGY
When a stock declines/rallies 1 point or more from the price at
which bought or sold short, we will raise/lower stop to cost. This
will limit the potential loss on a trade. For each additional 1
point move, a further adjustment is made.
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CURRENT BULLISH STOCK PICKS
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[Reserved for Subscribers]
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CURRENT BULLISH INDEX PICKS
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[Reserved for Subscribers]
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CURRENT BEARISH STOCK PICKS
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[Reserved for Subscribers]
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CURRENT BEARISH INDEX PICKS
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[Reserved for Subscribers]
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EXITED BULLISH STOCK PICKS FOR THE PREVIOUS 30 DAYS
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RNO - Picked(5/18/04): 1.24 Exited(5/23/05): 1.23 Result: -0.01
AEM - Picked(4/11/05): 14.43 Exited(5/9/05): 13.07 Result: -1.36
ASA - Picked(5/4/05): 35.00 Exited(5/9/05): 35.05 Result: 0.05
HL - Picked(5/4/05): 4.83 Exited(5/9/05): 4.82 Result: -0.01
PDG - Picked(5/4/05): 13.50 Exited(5/9/05): 13.88 Result: 0.38
QTWW - Picked(5/9/05): 3.68 Exited(5/20/05): 3.44 Result: -0.24
GRU - Picked(5/10/05): 18.25 Exited(5/11/05): 16.45 Result: -1.80
IWOV - Picked(5/13/05): 7.50 Exited(5/16/05): 7.25 Result: -0.25
SIL - Picked(5/16/05): 11.74 Exited(5/23/05): 11.75 Result: 0.01
AEM - Picked(5/17/05): 11.18 Exited(5/23/05): 11.01 Result: -0.17
UCL - Picked(5/18/05): 54.85 Exited(5/24/05): 55.45 Result: 0.60
ALVR - Picked(5/19/05): 9.50 Exited(5/31/05): 9.20 Result: -0.30
HMY - Picked(5/19/05): 6.75 Exited(5/23/05): 7.40 Result: 0.65
AAPL - Picked(5/20/05): 37.34 Exited(5/24/05): 39.45 Result: 2.11
ASA - Picked(5/24/05): 34.69 Exited(5/31/05): 35.60 Result: 0.91
AEM - Picked(5/25/05): 11.58 Exited(5/31/05): 11.70 Result: 0.12
NEM - Picked(5/25/05): 36.29 Exited(5/31/05): 36.75 Result: 0.46
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EXITED BULLISH INDEX PICKS FOR THE PREVIOUS 30 DAYS
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XLE - Picked(5/18/05): 39.66 Exited(5/24/05): 40.37 Result: 0.71
DIA - Picked(5/19/05): 104.15 Exited(5/23/05): 104.63 Result: 0.48
IBB - Picked(5/19/05): 67.50 Exited(5/23/05): 66.95 Result: -0.55
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EXITED BEARISH STOCK PICKS FOR THE PREVIOUS 30 DAYS
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RYL - Picked(5/10/05): 62.84 Exited(5/16/05): 60.25 Result: 2.59
DF - Picked(5/20/05): 38.24 Exited(5/20/05): 38.70 Result: -0.46
MTH - Picked(5/26/05): 72.61 Exited(6/1/05): 75.25 Result: -2.64
AAPL - Picked(6/1/05): 39.90 Exited(6/3/05): 37.96 Result: 1.94
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EXITED BEARISH INDEX PICKS FOR THE PREVIOUS 30 DAYS
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OIH - Picked(5/5/05): 93.05 Exited(5/11/05): 91.13 Result: 1.92
SPY - Picked(5/5/05): 117.11 Exited(5/11/05): 117.11 Result: 0.00
VNQ - Picked(5/9/05): 55.05 Exited(5/9/05): 55.60 Result: -0.55
QQQQ - Picked(5/11/05): 35.41 Exited(5/12/05): 36.06 Result: -0.65
QQQQ - Picked(5/12/05): 36.09 Exited(5/13/05): 36.25 Result: -0.16
SPY - Picked(5/12/05): 117.23 Exited(5/16/05): 116.14 Result: 1.09
IBB - Picked(5/16/05): 66.65 Exited(5/18/05): 67.14 Result: -0.49
DIA - Picked(5/23/05): 104.63 Exited(5/23/05): 105.21 Result: -0.58
IWM - Picked(5/23/05): 121.35 Exited(5/23/05): 121.75 Result: -0.40
QQQQ - Picked(5/25/05): 37.68 Exited(5/26/05): 38.01 Result: -0.33
SPY - Picked(5/25/05): 119.10 Exited(5/26/05): 120.05 Result: -0.95
DIA - Picked(6/1/05): 104.64 Exited(6/1/05): 105.45 Result: -0.81
OIH - Picked(6/1/05): 93.28 Exited(6/1/05): 93.60 Result: -0.32
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DISCLAIMER
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This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
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VR Platinum Newsletter, Monday 6/6/05
Started by
TTHQ Staff
, Jun 06 2005 10:53 AM
No replies to this topic