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[TTHQ Staff]

Todd Market Forecast Stock Market Update for the close on Thursday 06/09/05
www.toddmarketforecast.com

Available Mon- Friday after 6:00 p.m. Eastern, 3:00 Pacific.

DOW + 26 on 500 net advances

NASDAQ COMP. + 16 on 600 net advances

STOCK MARKET ANALYSIS:

The big event on Thursday was the testimony of Mr. Greenspan before a joint economic committee of Congress and he didn't say a great deal that was new and this is good. We are frequent critics of the Fed Chairman, but to his credit, he rarely says things that spook the financial markets.

Relief that his testimony is out of the way would be expected to provide fuel for a stock market rally, which it did, but the rally was rather restrained. Our suspicion is that a 3 1/2% spike in oil prices provided a headwind for the markets.

In the Wall Street Journal and other publications lately, there has been some opinion expressed that we are experiencing a cyclical bull market within the confines of a secular bear market and that once it's over, we will again see new multi year lows. There are many reasons why we think that such a scenario is nonsense, but consider this. The New York Composite Index, which is a measure of every stock on the NYSE, recently made an all time high. In our experience, important indices don't generally make all time highs during bear markets. More on this in the July newsletter.

After the close, Intel's mid quarter update provided good news as the chip maker guided higher and said things look good going forward. The stock was up in the after market.

NEWS AND FUNDAMENTALS:


Initial claims came in at 330k. The consensus was for 335k. The threat of a storm in the Gulf of Mexico caused oil to spike sharply higher.

On the stock front. H&R Block, Luby's and National Semiconductor reported higher than anticipated earnings and gained 11%. 9% and 9%. Brinker Int'l was upgraded by Prudential and rose 10%. Texas Industries guided higher and added 9%.

On the negative side, Avon Products announced that they would no longer be providing quarterly guidance and the stock lost 5%. Louisiana Pacific sank 5% after a downgrade by Smith Barney. Research in Motion, the maker of Blackberry, gave up 5% on litigation news.


BOTTOM LINE:

Our S&P and NASDAQ intermediate term systems are back on a buy signal as of the close on Thursday, April 21, 2005. Mutual fund investors are 100% invested in a growth fund or S&P 500 Index fund of their choice.

SPY and QQQQ traders are on the sidelines for now.

For new subscribers, the QQQQ and SPY are exchange traded funds or Spiders.

The former mimics the Nasdaq 100 and the latter mimics the S&P 500. ---- Additionally, an m.i.t. order means "market if touched" It means that your order becomes a market order if the price is touched.

OTHER MARKETS

We are on a buy signal for bonds since April 11, 2005

We are on a buy for the dollar and a sell for the Euro since March 22, 2005.

We are on a sell signal for gold since April 14, 2005.

We remain long term positive on all major world markets, including those of the U.S., Britain, Canada, Germany, France and Japan.

STEVE TODD