The VRTrader.com VR Platinum Newsletter Monday 6/20/05
"Tools for the High Performance Trader"
Copyright © 2005, All rights reserved.
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PORTFOLIO UPDATE | by Mark Leibovit
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VR Platinum Portfolio Update
Monday, June 20, 2005
Pre-Market
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LEIBOVIT FILES | by Mark Leibovit
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Leibovit Files
Monday, June 20, 2005
Opening Comments
Economic Data & Events June 20-24:
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MONDAY, June 20:
Leading Indicators Index for May (10 am ET)
Treasury auctions 3&6-month bills
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TUESDAY, June 21:
First day of Summer!
Weekly Chain Store Sales (8:55 am ET)
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WEDNESDAY, June 22:
EIA Petroleum Status Report (10:30 am ET)
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THURSDAY, June 23:
Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 am ET)
Existing Home Sales for May (10 am ET)
Weekly Money Supply (4:30 pm ET)
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FRIDAY, June 23:
Durable Goods Orders for May (8:30 am ET)
New Home Sales for May (10 am ET)
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Well, folks we're rallying right into the Summer Solstice (June 21 -this
coming Tuesday). We outlined the probability of the 'Summer Rally'
beginning early (in May) and possibly ending early (on the Solstice). Many
stock indexes are sitting at or near recovery peaks with the S&P 400
Midcap into a new bull market high. Internal readings (advances to
declines) are positive and volume remains overall positive, but we're a
tad overbought following Friday's option expiration. We're inclined to
believe the 'Summer Rally' has the potential of carrying deeper into the
summer, but also believe we should see a retracement begin right away
between now and Tuesday. The S&P 500 has rallied six days in a row
consecutively (measured against intra-day highs) and the QQQQs and SMH
have lost upward momentum. These are hints for possible action this week
however minor it may turn out to be. However, broad-based Negative Volume
Reversals ™ and convincing negative breadth could make us more
negative.
Fundamentally, there was a binary tone to the week's business news, as
Boeing and Airbus collided in Paris, rival retailers Best Buy and Circuit
City parted company, and media conglomerate Viacom decided to split itself
in two.
A wideneing trade deficit and Crude Oil into new record highs (at nearly
$59.00 a barrel) seemingly had no negative impact on the equity markets.
Apparently, a jump in Consumer Confidence (which is usually coincident
with rises and falls in stock prices) was the focus of investor attention.
The market still seems to be climbing a Wall of Worry, i.e., apprehension
translates into higher stock prices - euphoria and overconfidence breed
bubbles. Speaking of bubbles, the financial press and commentators are re
lentless in this discussion of the supposed real estate bubble. It seems
the more they talk about it the bigger the bubble becomes. We're not
holding our breadth for it to pop. Housing stocks again hit new record
highs this past week as fundamentals still seem to be in control as
'investors' and/or genuine home-buyers prefer physical real estate over
intangible equities.
There is no doubt about it. Jim Roger's bullish commodity scenario came
back to life with a vengeance this past week as we saw Crude Oil,Gold soar
and Copper soar. The Commodity Research Bureau (CRB) Index touched 308.59
working toward its bull market peak of 323.22 set back on the week of
March 18.
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WATCHLIST
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[Available for Subscribers Only]
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LONGS
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PTF - Petrofund Energy Trust 14.62
COMPANY PROFILE:
WHY WE LIKE IT:
This is a Canadian trust that pays out well on dividends. It averaged
about a .12/share monthly dividend in 2004. It has bounced sharply higher
after finding support at its 200 day moving average.
Petrofund Energy Trust (formerly NCE Petrofund) is an open-ended
investment trust whose primary source of income is from 99% net royalty
interests granted by its two wholly owned subsidiaries, PC and PVT
(formerly Ultima Ventures Trust). PC acquires, manages and disposes of
petroleum and natural gas rights and royalties and related property rights
and interests located primarily in western Canada. PC also holds the legal
interest to all properties beneficially owned by PVT. PVT receives 99% of
the net revenue from these properties, which it in turn pays out to
Petrofund in the form of the 99% net royalty noted above. In addition, PC
may acquire royalties or other property interests or securities of other
resource issuers. The Trust may also purchase directly or indirectly
securities of oil and gas companies, oil and gas properties and other
related assets. On June 16, 2004, PC acquired Ultima.
POTENTIAL TRIGGER:
Buy at market with a stop below the March 30 low at 13.40. This is one
that could provide good income AND price appreciation.
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GNA - Gerdau Ameristeel 4.56
COMPANY PROFILE:
WHY WE LIKE IT:
We believe GNA is making its seven week cycle low in this area. It staged
a decent looking reversal up on May 17. Steel stocks are very much
oversold at this point and GNA looks like a coiled spring ready to bounce
back.
Gerdau Ameristeel Corporation is a large minimill steel producer in North
America, with annual manufacturing capacity of over 8.4 million tons of
mill finished steel products. Through its vertically integrated network of
15 minimills (including one 50%-owned minimill), 16 scrap-recycling
facilities and 42 downstream operations, Gerdau Ameristeel primarily
serves customers in the eastern two thirds of North America. The Company's
products are generally sold to steel service centers, steel fabricators or
directly to original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) for use in a variety
of industries, including construction, cellular and electrical
transmission, automotive, mining and equipment manufacturing. Gerdau
Ameristeel is an indirect subsidiary of, and controlled by, Brazilian
steelmaker, Gerdau S.A. The Company's operations are segmented into two
operating divisions: Minimills and Downstream operations.
POTENTIAL TRIGGER:
Buy at market with a stop below the May 17 low of 4.35. Target 6.00.
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WJCI - WJ Communications Inc 1.91
COMPANY PROFILE:
WHY WE LIKE IT:
WJCI has been rattling around its May 13 low for almost two weeks now. It
tested the low on May 25 and closed higher on above average volume. It is
also in the vicinity of a low made in October 2004. Momentum indicators
are showing a bullish divergence as well. WJCI could take off soon.
WJ Communications, Inc. is a radio frequency (RF) devices company
providing radio frequency products worldwide to communications equipment
companies and service providers. The Company designs, develops and
manufacture products for both current and next-generation wireless and
wireline networks, defense and homeland security systems and RF
identification systems (RFID). Its products comprise highly functional RF
semiconductors, components and integrated assemblies that seek to address
the RF requirements of these various systems. The portfolio of RF
technology products offered by the Company includes amplifiers, mixers,
transistors and multi-chip modules, and RFID readers and reader modules.
The Company sells its products principally to distributors and original
equipment manufacturers, including their manufacturing subcontractors.
POTENTIAL TRIGGER:
Buy at market with a stop below the May 25 low of 1.76. Target 3.50.
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DPII - Discovery Partners International 3.00
COMPANY PROFILE:
WHY WE LIKE IT:
DPII put in a bullish outside day on June 2 with high volume after a
prolonged decline. We are looking for a solid move to the upside here.
There are bullish divergences on momentum indicators also.
Discovery Partners International, Inc. (DPII) engages in the development
and provision of libraries of drug-like compounds, instruments, consumable
supplies, drug discovery services, computational tools to generate
compound libraries, and testing and screening services for various drugs.
It offers instruments and consumables that automate the process of making
and storing collections, or libraries of chemical compounds; and chemistry
services, that include compounds, medical chemistry, drug discovery
informatics, and compound repository services. DPI also provides screening
services. In addition, the company designs and conducts assays or tests
that generate information about the effect of chemical compounds on a drug
target. DPI sells its products and services to pharmaceutical and
biopharmaceutical companies in the United States, Europe, Japan, and
India. The company was founded as IRORI in 1995 and changed its name to
Discovery Partners International, Inc. in 1998. Discovery Partners
International is headquartered in San Diego, California.
POTENTIAL TRIGGER:
Buy at market with a stop below the June 2 low of 2.81. Target $4.00.
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SHORTS
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[Available for Subscribers Only]
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TIMER DIGEST MARKET SIGNALS
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For Thursday, June 16, 2005
STOCKS: Neutral
BONDS: Bearish
GOLD: Bullish
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CURRENT PORTFOLIO
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[Available for Subscribers Only]
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NEW PICKS
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Based on either Bullish or Bearish technical signals and the
Volume Reversal™ methodology, these stock picks look
primed to make a move. No trading system is 100% accurate and
care should be taken to consider market conditions before
entering any trade. Not all trades are suitable for all
investors and each investor should consider their own risk
profile before making a decision.
Format:
Symbol - Company Name
Buy @ = this is the strategic range picked by the VR staff.
Target: = estimated destination of equity during life of play.
Stop: = recommended* stop loss considering equity volatility.
*stop losses should be placed according to your own risk
tolerance.
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CURRENT BULLISH STOCK PICKS
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HIET - 1/28/05 - Long @ 1.03 Target: 1.70 Stop: 0.30
WEL - 2/18/05 - Long @ 1.18 Target: 1.75 Stop: 0.80
GLFD - 5/6/05 - Long @ 2.75 Target: 3.25 Stop: 2.20
KO - 5/16/05 - Long @ 43.75 Target: 48.00 Stop: 41.50
FBR - 5/19/05 - Long @ 13.47 Target: 15.00-16.00 Stop: 11.85
HMY - 5/31/05 - Long @ 7.25 Target: 9.00 Stop: 7.25
PAL - 6/2/05 - Long @ 4.90 Target: 5.90 Stop: 3.89
AWA - 6/10/05 - Buy @ 5.55-5.65 Target: 7.00 Stop: 4.05
CDE - 6/10/05 - Long @ 3.30 Target: 4.00-4.05 Stop:3.30
BGO - 6/13/05 - Long @ 2.29 Target: 2.70-2.75 Stop: 1.69
CHINA - 6/13/05 - Long @ 3.30 Target: 5.00-6.00 Stop: 2.35
GG - 6/13/05 - Buy @ 14.10-14.20 Target: 17.00 Stop: 12.00
SWC - 6/13/05 - Long @ 7.20 Target: 9.00 Stop: 7.20
WYNN - 6/13/05 - Long @ 53.10 Target: 58.00-59.00 Stop: 53.10
BLDP - 6/16/05 - Buy @ 3.90-3.95 Target: 5.40-5.50 Stop: 3.39
MDG - 6/16/05 - Buy @ 17.45-17.50 Target: 19.00 Stop: 16.40
N - 6/16/05 - Buy @ 39.40-39.60 Target: 42.00 Stop: 37.00
STEM - 6/16/05 - Buy @ 3.89-3.91 Target: 5.00 Stop: 3.70
X - 6/16/05 - Long @ 40.61 Target: 47.00 Stop: 40.61
LLY - 6/17/05 - Long @ 58.52 Target: 64.00 Stop: 56.50
AA - 6/20/05 - Buy @ 27.60-27.70 Target: 30.50 Stop: 26.00
BHP - 6/20/05 - Buy @ 26.60-26.80 Target: 31.50 Stop: 23.40
BW - 6/20/05 - Buy @ 14.60-14.65 Target: 18.00 Stop: 13.00
LZB - 6/20/05 - Buy @ 14.20-14.30 Target: 16.50 Stop: 11.49
NEM - 6/20/05 - Buy @ 38.80-38.90 Target: 43.00 Stop: 35.00
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CURRENT BULLISH INDEX PICKS
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[Available for Subscribers Only]
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CURRENT BEARISH STOCK PICKS
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[Available for Subscribers Only]
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CURRENT BEARISH INDEX PICKS
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[Available for Subscribers Only]
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EXITED BULLISH STOCK PICKS FOR THE PREVIOUS 30 DAYS
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RNO - Picked(5/18/04): 1.24 Exited(5/23/05): 1.23 Result: -0.01
LUV - Picked(5/5/05): 15.10 Exited(6/10/05): 14.40 Result: -0.70
SIL - Picked(5/16/05): 11.74 Exited(5/23/05): 11.75 Result: 0.01
AEM - Picked(5/17/05): 11.18 Exited(5/23/05): 11.01 Result: -0.17
UCL - Picked(5/18/05): 54.85 Exited(5/24/05): 55.45 Result: 0.60
ALVR - Picked(5/19/05): 9.50 Exited(5/31/05): 9.20 Result: -0.30
HMY - Picked(5/19/05): 6.75 Exited(5/23/05): 7.40 Result: 0.65
AAPL - Picked(5/20/05): 37.34 Exited(5/24/05): 39.45 Result: 2.11
AWA - Picked(5/20/05): 5.35 Exited(6/8/05): 6.44 Result: 1.09
ASA - Picked(5/24/05): 34.69 Exited(5/31/05): 35.60 Result: 0.91
AEM - Picked(5/25/05): 11.58 Exited(5/31/05): 11.70 Result: 0.12
COMS - Picked(5/25/05): 3.45 Exited(6/8/05): 3.66 Result: 0.21
FLML - Picked(5/25/05): 18.20 Exited(6/8/05): 18.82 Result: 0.62
NEM - Picked(5/25/05): 36.29 Exited(5/31/05): 36.75 Result: 0.46
UIS - Picked(5/25/05): 7.24 Exited(6/8/05): 6.90 Result: -0.34
SIRI - Picked(6/1/05): 5.81 Exited(6/10/05): 5.81 Result: 0.00
NEM - Picked(6/2/05): 38.09 Exited(6/17/05): 40.33 Result: 2.24
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EXITED BULLISH INDEX PICKS FOR THE PREVIOUS 30 DAYS
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XLE - Picked(5/18/05): 39.66 Exited(5/24/05): 40.37 Result: 0.71
DIA - Picked(5/19/05): 104.15 Exited(5/23/05): 104.63 Result: 0.48
IBB - Picked(5/19/05): 67.50 Exited(5/23/05): 66.95 Result: -0.55
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EXITED BEARISH STOCK PICKS FOR THE PREVIOUS 30 DAYS
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MTH - Picked(5/26/05): 72.61 Exited(6/1/05): 75.25 Result: -2.64
BRCM - Picked(5/31/05): 35.99 Exited(6/13/05): 35.26 Result: 0.73
AAPL - Picked(6/1/05): 39.90 Exited(6/3/05): 37.96 Result: 1.94
GOOG - Picked(6/9/05): 284.72 Exited(6/14/05): 279.47 Result: 5.25
INTC - Picked(6/10/05): 27.12 Exited(6/13/05): 27.03 Result: 0.09
AAPL - Picked(6/13/05): 36.40 Exited(6/16/05): 37.92 Result: -1.52
BRCM - Picked(6/15/05): 34.66 Exited(6/16/05): 35.45 Result: -0.79
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EXITED BEARISH INDEX PICKS FOR THE PREVIOUS 30 DAYS
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DIA - Picked(5/23/05): 104.63 Exited(5/23/05): 105.21 Result: -0.58
IWM - Picked(5/23/05): 121.35 Exited(5/23/05): 121.75 Result: -0.40
QQQQ - Picked(5/25/05): 37.68 Exited(5/26/05): 38.01 Result: -0.33
SPY - Picked(5/25/05): 119.10 Exited(5/26/05): 120.05 Result: -0.95
DIA - Picked(6/1/05): 104.64 Exited(6/1/05): 105.45 Result: -0.81
OIH - Picked(6/1/05): 93.28 Exited(6/1/05): 93.60 Result: -0.32
IWM - Picked(6/5/05): 123.46 Exited(6/7/05): 124.85 Result: -1.39
RTH - Picked(6/5/05): 94.35 Exited(6/7/05): 95.65 Result: -1.30
BBH - Picked(6/6/05): 168.95 Exited(6/9/05): 165.95 Result: 3.00
EFA - Picked(6/6/05): 156.62 Exited(6/7/05): 157.30 Result: -0.68
QQQQ - Picked(6/8/05): 37.88 Exited(6/13/05): 37.87 Result: 0.01
SMH - Picked(6/8/05): 34.52 Exited(6/9/05): 35.25 Result: -0.73
EFA - Picked(6/9/05): 52.18 Exited(6/15/05): 52.34 Result: -0.16
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DISCLAIMER
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This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service only. The information provided herein is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and staff of VRTrader.com may own, buy or sell securities presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional before trading in any security. The information provided has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. VRTrader.com staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to factors beyond our control.
Copyright © 2005 VRTrader.com.
