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[TTHQ Staff]

[b]Todd Market Forecast Stock Market Update for the close on Thursday 06/30/05
www.toddmarketforecast.com


Available Mon- Friday after 6:00 p.m. Eastern, 3:00 Pacific.

DOW - 99 on 250 net declines

NASDAQ COMP. - 12 on 400 net declines

STOCK MARKET ANALYSIS:

The Fed disappointed Wall Street by raising rates, but not giving a clue as to when they would stop the increases and the investment community immediately had a tantrum. If the Dow had lost just one more point, it would have moved over 100 points in four of the last six sessions. Now that's volatility.

Believe it or not, there were actually some things to like about the action. First, volume was higher, but not by very much. Also, breadth showed only 250 net declines. This shows that there is still internal strength. Nasdaq breadth wasn't all that negative either.

From a short term standpoint, the Dow marginally broke the low of June 27, but the S&P 500 is still holding this support zone. Also, the Nasdaq and smaller cap indices such as the Russell 2000 are solidly above that level. This suggests a positive non confirmation.

Our best estimate is that the decline will be arrested around current levels, but if the averages break down from here, we doubt any further drop will carry very far before it turns back to the upside.


NEWS AND FUNDAMENTALS:

Chicago PMI was reported at 53.6 which was less than the expected 54.0. Initial claims were 310k, lower than the anticipated 325k. Personal income rose 0.2%. the consensus was for a rise of 0.3%. Finally, the core deflator came in unchanged. It was expected to rise 0.1%. The rise for the entire year is 1.6%. Inflation? What inflation?

On the stock front, Cnet Networks is looking for a buyer. The stock rose 10%. Cray Inc. added 4% on news of two new government contracts. Msc Industrial and World Wrestling Federation jumped 8% and 10% on earnings.

On the negative side, Brookstone Inc. lost 7% on disappointing same store sales. Diebold, Harmonic Inc and Palm Source guided lower and sank 11%, 7% and 10%.


BOTTOM LINE:

Our S&P and NASDAQ intermediate term systems are back on a buy signal as of the close on April 21, 2005. Mutual fund investors are 100% invested in a growth fund or S&P 500 Index fund of their choice.

SPY and QQQQ traders are on the sidelines for now.

For new subscribers, the QQQQ and SPY are exchange traded funds or Spiders.

The former mimics the Nasdaq 100 and the latter mimics the S&P 500. ---- Additionally, an m.i.t. order means "market if touched" It means that your order becomes a market order if the price is touched.

OTHER MARKETS

We are on a buy signal for bonds since April 11, 2005.

We are on a buy for the dollar and a sell for the Euro since March 22, 2005.

We are on a sell signal for gold since April 14, 2005.

We remain long term positive on all major world markets, including those of the U.S., Britain, Canada, Germany, France and Japan.

STEVE TODD

A SHORT BIOGRAPHY


Editor and publisher of the Todd Market Forecast, a monthly stock market newsletter with an included nightly hotline. Steve Todd has a degree in history with a minor in mathematics. This should be a good combination for stock market analysis.

Steve has published articles on the economy and stock market in the following publications: Barron’s, Stock Market Magazine, Futures Magazine, The National Educator, and others.

His stock market commentary is heard on the following stations: CNBC, Bloomberg, CNNfn, Associated Press Radio, Business Radio Network, CKNW in Vancouver, British Columbia, KFWB, Los Angeles and ROBTV in Toronto, Ontario.

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