Posted 07 July 2005 - 08:36 AM
*Interviewwith Ike Iossif on June 24 http://www.marketviews.tv/freeservices/archives1/Guests/Ord/pg1.htm
"TimerDigest"has Tim Ord ranked #5for one year ending 6/3/05 and #2in Gold for 2004.
For30 to 90 days horizon:Flat.
Short term Trade: Flat.
Formonitoring purposes:Long XAU, 87.96 on 4/21/04.
LongerTerm Trend monitoring purposes: flat.
Whatto expect now:
A"Sign of Weakness" appeared on June 23 and 24. Whena "SOW" appears right after a high is made, it implies the trend has turned downfor the short term. Most of the time are-test of the recent high is made. What weare looking for here is a re-test of the recent high set at the 1220 range. If this re-test comes in or 10% lighter volume asell signal will be triggered. If the sellsignal is triggered our downside target will be where a gap formed between May 17 and 18near the 1175 range. No clear signal yetand staying flat.
Checkout our article in the July Issue of Stock and Commodities magazine, page 76. It's a good explanation how I look at the market.
Tolearn more on "Ord-Volume" visitwww.ord-oracle.com.
NasdaqComposite:
The Nasdaq ran intoresistance at the 2100 on 6/23 and hit a high of 2106.57which was the highest level at the resistance zone dating back to February. June 23 also had the highest volume at the 2100level dating back to February. When a markethits above a previous high on higher volume it implies that high will be tested if notexceeded again. Therefore the 6/23 highwill be tested if not exceeded sometime in the future. The test of the 6/23 high will tell a very telling story. If the 6/23 high is tested on 10% lighter volume,it will trigger a bearish signal. The volumeon 6/23 came in at 2.00 billion shares. Toget through the 6/23 high, volume would need to be equal or higher than 2.00 billionshares. The 50-day average volume on theNasdaq is running about 1.62 billion shares. Therefore,to reach 2.00 billion shares would be quite a feat near term. Most high volume highs are tested and we expectthe 6/23 high volume high will be tested near term and trigger a sell signal. If a sell signal does develop our down sidetarget will be the 2020 range. The 2020 rangeshould hold as support and where the market may attempt another rally phase. This trading range could last into August.
GOLDMarket:
"TimerDigest" has ranked Tim Ord as the #2 gold timer for 2004.
Short termtrade, Long BGO (4/19/05) at 2.37. This tradeis separate from our long-term position in BGO. We bought EGO (gold Issue) at 2.23(5/26/05). We bought PMU (5/27/05) at .50 and bring our average price to .81.
Below we havedisplayed a graph of the XAU (Courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com). We have drawn a trend-line down from theNovember 2004 high. The XAU is building atrading range right below this trend line. Thistrading range may represent "Cause" which means building strength to breakthrough. If the XAU gets through this trend-line, (which we expect it will) our nextupside target will be the March 2005 high at the 103 range. The 103 area may produce a consolidation phase thatcould last several weeks. However, beforethis year is out, we expect the XAU to exceed the last year high of 113. For the short-term picture we have drawn on the"Price relative to Gold" chart at the bottom of the page a "Blue up-trendLine". As long as the "Blueup-trend line" is not broken the short-term trend will remain up. We have also drawn on the "Price Relative toGold" chart a "Red down-trend line" which represents the intermediate termpicture. Notice the "Price Relative toGold" is right up against this "Red down-trend line" now. If the "Price Relative to Gold" breaksthrough this "Red-line" it will confirm the impulse wave to the upside and implythe Xau will rally to December 2004 high if not higher.
We double ourpositions in BGO on (7/30/04) at 2.34 and we now have an average price at 2.70. Long CBJfor an average of price of 2.75. Long NXG average of 2.26. We bought PMU (5/27/05) at .50and bring our average price to .81.
The McClellanOscillator closed today's at +12 and neutral for the short term.
The “PercentVolume” Indicator closed .51 and neutral.
The "5 dayARMS" close today at 6.33 and bullish for the short term.
Conclusion: Aconsolidation into August is possible
LongerTerm Trend monitoring purposes: Short SPX on 4/12/05 at1187.76. CoveredShort SPX on 5/17/05 at 1173.80 for gain of 1.2%.
