The VRTrader.com VR Platinum Newsletter Tuesday 7/12/05
"Tools for the High Performance Trader"
Copyright © 2005, All rights reserved.
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PORTFOLIO UPDATE | by Mark Leibovit
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VR Platinum Portfolio Update
Tuesday, July 12, 2005
Pre-Market
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LEIBOVIT FILES | by Mark Leibovit
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Opening Comments
The market continued to demonstrate its resiliency yesterday and for those
who are tracking it vis a vis our VR Forecaster (Annual Forecast Model) it
is even more comforting with such a high degree of correlation.
Meanwhile, the 'Summer Rally' persists, internal indicators confirm
(Nasdaq Advances/Declines in our work broke out to new yearly highs
yesterday), and volume is is healthy. Today, however, is 'Turnaround
Tuesday' and Friday is options expiration. Therefore, a retracement from
current levels, however modest, should not come as any great surprise, but
we're not bearish. The S&P 500 cash touched 1229.05 yesterday and we're
still targeting 1235.00 as a reasonable short-term to near-term upside
target and the Russell 2000/S&P 400 Midcap indexes continue to plow their
way into new cyclical bull market highs.
On a trading basis, we did a bit of lightening up yesterday for our
Platinum subscribers in our effort to 'ring the register'. Here, we're
inclined to sit on the sidelines unless we get a retracement in the market
or even consider a short to play that retracement. There are no new
recommendations this a.m. Short-term overbought/oversold indicators are
in overbought territory, but that doesn't preclude an important market
setback either as momentum still appears strong.
The Dollar Index generated a Negative Volume Reversal ™ pattern in our
work here signaling a trading top. Whether a bigger high is now in place
is unclear, but we know we've been reading quite a bit of bullish
commentary in recent days while recalling our upside target was around the
90.00 level several months ago. We'll just have to wait and see. We know
that the stock market 'loves' a weak Dollar and, so far, gold seems to
still respond to the upside when the Dollar Index falters.
Gold itself still appears to be setting the stage in our view for a more
significant advance in the weeks and months ahead and we've stuck our neck
out a bit suggesting we could see $500+ by year-end. Stay tuned.
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WATCHLIST
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[Reserved for Subscribers]
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LONGS
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PTF - Petrofund Energy Trust 14.62
COMPANY PROFILE:
WHY WE LIKE IT:
This is a Canadian trust that pays out well on dividends. It averaged
about a .12/share monthly dividend in 2004. It has bounced sharply higher
after finding support at its 200 day moving average
Petrofund Energy Trust (formerly NCE Petrofund) is an open-ended
investment trust whose primary source of income is from 99% net royalty
interests granted by its two wholly owned subsidiaries, PC and PVT
(formerly Ultima Ventures Trust). PC acquires, manages and disposes of
petroleum and natural gas rights and royalties and related property rights
and interests located primarily in western Canada. PC also holds the legal
interest to all properties beneficially owned by PVT. PVT receives 99% of
the net revenue from these properties, which it in turn pays out to
Petrofund in the form of the 99% net royalty noted above. In addition, PC
may acquire royalties or other property interests or securities of other
resource issuers. The Trust may also purchase directly or indirectly
securities of oil and gas companies, oil and gas properties and other
related assets. On June 16, 2004, PC acquired Ultima.
POTENTIAL TRIGGER:
Buy at market with a stop below the March 30 low at 13.40. This is one
that could provide good income AND price appreciation.
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DPII - Discovery Partners International 3.00
COMPANY PROFILE:
WHY WE LIKE IT:
DPII put in a bullish outside day on June 2 with high volume after a
prolonged decline. We are looking for a solid move to the upside here.
There are bullish divergences on momentum indicators also.
Discovery Partners International, Inc. (DPII) engages in the development
and provision of libraries of drug-like compounds, instruments, consumable
supplies, drug discovery services, computational tools to generate
compound libraries, and testing and screening services for various drugs.
It offers instruments and consumables that automate the process of making
and storing collections, or libraries of chemical compounds; and chemistry
services, that include compounds, medical chemistry, drug discovery
informatics, and compound repository services. DPI also provides screening
services. In addition, the company designs and conducts assays or tests
that generate information about the effect of chemical compounds on a drug
target. DPI sells its products and services to pharmaceutical and
biopharmaceutical companies in the United States, Europe, Japan, and
India. The company was founded as IRORI in 1995 and changed its name to
Discovery Partners International, Inc. in 1998. Discovery Partners
International is headquartered in San Diego, California.
POTENTIAL TRIGGER:
Buy at market with a stop below the June 2 low of 2.81. Target $4.00.
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ALDN - Aladdin Knowledge Systems 21.46
COMPANY PROFILE:
WHY WE LIKE IT:
With the repeated announcements of credit card information theft from
companies charged with protecting our information, we took a look at
the most promising companies that might be contracted if the data storage
companies sought outside electronic security help. Aladdin Knowledge
Systems has a bullish looking chart formation and has been consolidating
at a high level for the past seven months. We are expecting a breakout
and this one should provide a handsome return over the long term. ALDN
gapped down March 20 but recovered nicely on high volume in what looks
like a shakeout move.
Aladdin Knowledge Systems, Ltd. provides solutions for software digital
rights management and Internet security. Its products include the
universal serial bus-based eToken device for user authentication and
e-commerce security; eSafe, a line of integrated content security
solutions that protect networks against malicious, inappropriate, and
nonproductive Internet-borne content; and HASP (hardware against software
privacy), HASP DocSeal, and Hardlock that includes both software and
hardware to protect its customers? software against unauthorized copying
and illegal use. The company products also include Privilege, a software
licensing and protection platform that enables secure software
distribution via compact disk, electronic software distribution, or
peer-to-peer networks. It offers its products primarily to software
developers and distributors. The company markets its products primarily in
Israel, the United States, Europe, and southeast Asia. Aladdin Knowledge
Systems was founded by Jacob Margalit in 1985. The company is
headquartered in Tel Aviv, Israel.
POTENTIAL TRIGGER:
Buy at market with a stop at 13.00. We are looking for ALDN to challenge
the March 2000 high of 44.75
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CNXT - Conexant Systems, Inc. 1.72
COMPANY PROFILE:
WHY WE LIKE IT:
CNXT is part of a group that has seen some solid buying the last few
weeks. CNXT posted a Positive VR on Friday, July 8. With the Nasdaq
breaking through 2100 and semiconductors leading the way, we feel that
CNXT could see solid gains
Conexant Systems, Inc. engages in designing, developing, and selling
semiconductor solutions for broadband communications, enterprise networks,
and the digital homes worldwide. Its semiconductor solutions include
semiconductor devices, software, and reference designs. The company offers
modem chipsets and software for desktop and notebook PC applications, as
well as fax machines, multifunction peripherals, point-of-sale terminals,
set-top boxes, gaming consoles, and Internet terminals. It also provides
media processing solutions, including various broadcast audio and video
decoders and encoder devices. It markets and sells its products to
original equipment manufactures and electronic components distributors, as
well as to third-party electronic manufacturing service providers. The
company was incorporated as Rockwell Semiconductor Systems, Inc. in 1996
and changed its name to Conexant Systems, Inc. in 1998. Conexant is
headquartered in Newport Beach, California
POTENTIAL TRIGGER:
Buy at market with a stop below the June 15 low of 1.40. Looking for
3.50.
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CKCM - Click Commerce Inc 22.90
COMPANY PROFILE:
WHY WE LIKE IT:
CKCM looks to be coming out of a three week pullback with a Positive VR on
Friday, July 8. The Internet Software & Services group seems to be
awakening after a four week pullback.
Click Commerce, Inc. supplies collaborative commerce and compliance
automation software and related services. It offers channel management
solution that provides an integrated channel management and collaborative
e-commerce solution; compliance automation solutions to improve the
approval processes by connecting research departments through
administrative extranets; supply chain execution solutions that include
supplier enablement, fulfillment coordination, service logistics, reverse
logistics, and shipment execution solutions; warehouse execution solution
that supports a range of logistics network configurations; and data
synchronization and secure communications solutions that allow companies
to communicate business information with their trading partner community
through the Internet. The company also provides various professional
services in connection with its software, including hosting, site
administration, implementation services, training, maintenance, and
customer support. Click Commerce provides its solutions to various
enterprises and institutions in the manufacturing, high tech, financial
services, retail, healthcare, and higher education industries worldwide
through its direct sales force. The company was founded by Michael W.
Ferro, Jr. It was incorporated in 1996 as Click Interactive, Inc. and
changed its name to Click Commerce, Inc. in 1999. Click Commerce is
headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.
POTENTIAL TRIGGER:
Buy at market with a stop below the May 17 low of 17.00. Upside target is
30.
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SHORTS
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[Reserved for Subscribers]
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TIMER DIGEST MARKET SIGNALS
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For Friday, July 01, 2005
STOCKS: Bullish
BONDS: Neutral
GOLD: Bullish
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CURRENT PORTFOLIO
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[Reserved for Subscribers]
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NEW PICKS
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Based on either Bullish or Bearish technical signals and the
Volume Reversal™ methodology, these stock picks look
primed to make a move. No trading system is 100% accurate and
care should be taken to consider market conditions before
entering any trade. Not all trades are suitable for all
investors and each investor should consider their own risk
profile before making a decision.
Format:
Symbol - Company Name
Buy @ = this is the strategic range picked by the VR staff.
Target: = estimated destination of equity during life of play.
Stop: = recommended* stop loss considering equity volatility.
*stop losses should be placed according to your own risk
tolerance.
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RISK MANAGEMENT STRATEGY
When a stock declines/rallies 1 point or more from the price at
which bought or sold short, we will raise/lower stop to cost. This
will limit the potential loss on a trade. For each additional 1
point move, a further adjustment is made.
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CURRENT BULLISH STOCK PICKS
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HIET - 1/28/05 - Long @ 1.03 Target: 1.70 Stop: 0.30
WEL - 2/18/05 - Long @ 1.18 Target: 1.75 Stop: 0.80
CHINA - 6/13/05 - Long @ 3.30 Target: 5.00-6.00 Stop: 2.35
BHP - 6/20/05 - Long @ 26.80 Target: 31.50 Stop: 26.80
BW - 6/20/05 - Long @ 14.65 Target: 18.00 Stop: 14.65
LZB - 6/20/05 - Long @ 14.30 Target: 16.50 Stop: 14.30
GG - 6/30/05 - Long @ 16.00 Target: 18.00 Stop: 15.27
AEM - 7/6/05 - Long @ 12.57 Target: 15.00 Stop: 10.75
KGC - 7/6/05 - Long @ 6.10 Target: 7.25 Stop: 4.60
SWC - 7/6/05 - Long @ 7.41 Target: 11.00 Stop: 6.00
WYNN - 7/6/05 - Long @ 48.60 Target: 58.00 Stop: 51.60
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CURRENT BULLISH INDEX PICKS
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IBB - 7/8/05 - Buy @ 69.55-69.65 Target: 75.00 Stop: 69.00
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CURRENT BEARISH STOCK PICKS
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[Reserved for Subscribers]
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CURRENT BEARISH INDEX PICKS
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TLT - 7/6/05 - Short @ 94.63 Target: 88.00-89.00 Stop: 97.01
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EXITED BULLISH STOCK PICKS FOR THE PREVIOUS 30 DAYS
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GLFD - Picked(5/6/05): 2.75 Exited(6/27/05): 2.30 Result: -0.45
KO - Picked(5/16/05): 43.75 Exited(6/23/05): 43.34 Result: -0.41
FBR - Picked(5/19/05): 13.47 Exited(6/23/05): 14.20 Result: 0.73
HMY - Picked(5/31/05): 7.25 Exited(6/23/05): 8.25 Result: 1.00
NEM - Picked(6/2/05): 38.09 Exited(6/17/05): 40.33 Result: 2.24
PAL - Picked(6/2/05): 4.90 Exited(6/23/05): 4.90 Result: 0.00
AWA - Picked(6/10/05): 5.65 Exited(7/11/05): 6.36 Result: 0.71
CDE - Picked(6/10/05): 3.30 Exited(6/23/05): 3.55 Result: 0.25
BGO - Picked(6/13/05): 2.29 Exited(6/23/05): 2.40 Result: 0.11
SWC - Picked(6/13/05): 7.20 Exited(6/23/05): 7.80 Result: 0.60
WYNN - Picked(6/13/05): 53.10 Exited(6/20/05): 52.80 Result: -0.30
N - Picked(6/16/05): 39.60 Exited(6/23/05): 39.60 Result: 0.00
X - Picked(6/16/05): 40.61 Exited(6/20/05): 40.61 Result: 0.00
LLY - Picked(6/17/05): 58.52 Exited(6/23/05): 58.38 Result: -0.14
AA - Picked(6/20/05): 27.70 Exited(6/23/05): 27.70 Result: 0.00
NEM - Picked(6/20/05): 38.90 Exited(6/23/05): 39.49 Result: 0.59
TZOO - Picked(6/22/05): 33.80 Exited(6/27/05): 34.70 Result: 0.90
MU - Picked(6/23/05): 10.85 Exited(6/24/05): 10.48 Result: -0.37
KO - Picked(6/29/05): 42.86 Exited(6/30/05): 42.05 Result: -0.81
X - Picked(6/29/05): 35.25 Exited(7/11/05): 37.26 Result: 2.01
GOLD - Picked(6/30/05): 14.36 Exited(7/1/05): 13.70 Result: -0.66
PAAS - Picked(6/30/05): 15.15 Exited(7/5/05): 14.22 Result: -0.93
KOOL - Picked(7/5/05): 4.35 Exited(7/11/05): 4.84 Result: 0.49
GTW - Picked(7/6/05): 3.35 Exited(7/11/05): 3.97 Result: 0.62
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EXITED BULLISH INDEX PICKS FOR THE PREVIOUS 30 DAYS
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IWD - Picked(6/28/05): 67.06 Exited(6/30/05): 66.86 Result: -0.20
IWR - Picked(6/28/05): 81.95 Exited(6/30/05): 82.36 Result: 0.41
XLF - Picked(6/28/05): 29.52 Exited(6/30/05): 29.52 Result: 0.00
IWM - Picked(7/5/05): 64.72 Exited(7/11/05): 66.88 Result: 2.16
RTH - Picked(7/5/05): 97.87 Exited(7/11/05): 99.31 Result: 1.44
SMH - Picked(7/5/05): 34.28 Exited(7/11/05): 36.00 Result: 1.72
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EXITED BEARISH STOCK PICKS FOR THE PREVIOUS 30 DAYS
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BRCM - Picked(5/31/05): 35.99 Exited(6/13/05): 35.26 Result: 0.73
GOOG - Picked(6/9/05): 284.72 Exited(6/14/05): 279.47 Result: 5.25
INTC - Picked(6/10/05): 27.12 Exited(6/13/05): 27.03 Result: 0.09
AAPL - Picked(6/13/05): 36.40 Exited(6/16/05): 37.92 Result: -1.52
BRCM - Picked(6/15/05): 34.66 Exited(6/16/05): 35.45 Result: -0.79
EXPD - Picked(6/23/05): 51.11 Exited(6/28/05): 49.50 Result: 1.61
CNF - Picked(6/24/05): 43.98 Exited(6/28/05): 43.80 Result: 0.18
ANN - Picked(6/30/05): 24.44 Exited(7/1/05): 23.93 Result: 0.51
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EXITED BEARISH INDEX PICKS FOR THE PREVIOUS 30 DAYS
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QQQQ - Picked(6/8/05): 37.88 Exited(6/13/05): 37.87 Result: 0.01
EFA - Picked(6/9/05): 52.18 Exited(6/15/05): 52.34 Result: -0.16
BBH - Picked(6/22/05): 169.19 Exited(6/23/05): 167.91 Result: 1.28
XLE - Picked(6/22/05): 45.10 Exited(6/23/05): 45.48 Result: -0.38
IWM - Picked(6/23/05): 63.04 Exited(6/28/05): 62.72 Result: 0.32
SPY - Picked(6/23/05): 120.17 Exited(6/28/05): 119.43 Result: 0.74
DIA - Picked(6/30/05): 103.09 Exited(7/1/05): 103.16 Result: -0.07
SPY - Picked(6/30/05): 119.33 Exited(7/1/05): 119.52 Result: -0.19
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DISCLAIMER
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This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service only. The information provided herein is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and staff of VRTrader.com may own, buy or sell securities presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional before trading in any security. The information provided has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. VRTrader.com staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to factors beyond our control.
Copyright © 2005 VRTrader.com.
