The VRTrader.com VR Platinum Newsletter Friday 8/19/2005
"Tools for the High Performance Trader"
Copyright © 2005, All rights reserved.
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PORTFOLIO UPDATE | by Mark Leibovit
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VR Platinum Portfolio Update
Friday, August 19, 2005
Pre-Market
New Changes
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this - Changed Stop From 25.25 To 25.75
NT - Changed Entry Range From 2.85-2.95 To 2.85-2.88
New Cancels
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VOD - Cancelled
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LEIBOVIT FILES | by Mark Leibovit
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Leibovit Files
Friday, August 19, 2005
Opening Comments
A cycle 'change point' due today along with options expiration may be a
contributing factor to a technical bounce, but the early August highs are
still pretty far away (with the exception of the Dow Industrials which
have been artificially buoyed in our opinion), so the burden of proof is
on the bulls. Our VR Forecaster Annual Forecast Model was correct when it
predicted back in January a late July to early August peak ahead of the
traditional September/October dousing. Some September see a last ditch
rally before the plug is pulled big time and perhaps that could happen
again, but we're reluctant to play the long side without clearcut upside
volume (Volume Reversals-tm), but we're watching. As we noted yesterday,
we covered our SPY short due to the lighter volume and lack of downside
conviction. Our short recommendation in GOOG, however, has been slowly
but surely paying off. Internal indicators (advances/declines as well as
highs/lows) have been negative as of late and leading indexes such as the
Russell 2000, Nasdaq Composite and S&P 400 Midcap have been leading the
market lower. Our best guess is that the market bounces here which will
present another shorting opportunity. Stay tuned.
Watching gold shares for possible re-entry on the long side, but also
watching the Dollar Index which has reversed to the upside following our
reported Positive Volume Reversal ™. Though we are uncomfortable tying
two markets together inversely, we still do not want to fight the tape and
what apparently is working, so until the Dollar signals lower and/or gold
and gold shares tell us decisively we need to get back on board, we're
watching from the sidelines.
Despite negative volume and a clear downtrend (higher interest rates), the
bond market (especially our short recommendation TLT) has surprised us on
the long side. Support was found at the 200 day moving average for one
and bearish sentiment concerning interest rates once again was at an
extreme (in hindsight) as a second point. If rates are going lower, it
may be a function of money rolling out of stocks into bonds ahead of the
expected Fall market correction in addition to any buy programs for bonds
by our Asian friends. If so, we may have to wait several weeks (or
months) for the resumption of the downtrend. For now, we're holding on to
the short side and watching.
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WATCHLIST
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[Reserved for Subscribers]
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LONGS
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IWOV - Interwoven Inc 7.51
COMPANY PROFILE:
WHY WE LIKE IT:
IWOV formed a Positive VR on Aigust 17 after a two week pullback and it
looks ready to mount a push higher.
Interwoven, Inc. provides enterprise content management (ECM) software and
services. Its products enable businesses to create, review, manage,
distribute, and archive critical business content, such as documents,
spreadsheets, emails and presentations, as well as Web images, graphics,
content, and applications code across the enterprise and its chain of
customers, partners, and suppliers. Interwoven’s ECM platform consists of
integrated software product offerings that deliver customers end-to-end
content lifecycle management, including collaboration, email management,
imaging, digital asset management, Web content management, document
management, and records management. The company also offers professional
services and strategic consulting services to the customers for the
deployment of the software and the integration of the applications with
third-party software. Interwoven’s products are deployed for business
initiatives, such as Intranet management, marketing content management,
collaborative portals, Web content management, records management, deal
management, matter-centric collaboration, and content provisioning. It
markets and licenses its software products and services through a direct
sales force, as well as through technology vendors, professional services
firms, and systems integrators in North America; and through its
subsidiaries in Europe and Asia Pacific. The company was founded in 1995
and is headquartered in Sunnyvale, California.
POTENTIAL TRIGGER:
Buy at market with a stop below the July 15 low of 6.78. Looking for
9.50.
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SHORTS
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Sorry, no Short Watchlist to Report
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TIMER DIGEST MARKET SIGNALS
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For Friday, August 12, 2005
STOCKS: Neutral
BONDS: Bearish
GOLD: Bullish
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CURRENT PORTFOLIO
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[Reserved for Subscribers]
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NEW PICKS
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Based on either Bullish or Bearish technical signals and the
Volume Reversal™ methodology, these stock picks look
primed to make a move. No trading system is 100% accurate and
care should be taken to consider market conditions before
entering any trade. Not all trades are suitable for all
investors and each investor should consider their own risk
profile before making a decision.
Format:
Symbol - Company Name
Buy @ = this is the strategic range picked by the VR staff.
Target: = estimated destination of equity during life of play.
Stop: = recommended* stop loss considering equity volatility.
*stop losses should be placed according to your own risk
tolerance.
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RISK MANAGEMENT STRATEGY
When a stock declines/rallies 1 point or more from the price at
which bought or sold short, we will raise/lower stop to cost. This
will limit the potential loss on a trade. For each additional 1
point move, a further adjustment is made.
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CURRENT BULLISH STOCK PICKS
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HIET - 1/28/2005 - Long @ 1.03 Target: 1.70 Stop: 0.30
MDM - 7/13/2005 - Long @ 2.55 Target: 3.50 Stop: 1.50
AW - 7/28/2005 - Long @ 8.62 Target: 10.00 Stop: 7.79
KO - 7/29/2005 - Long @ 44.25 Target: 48.50 Stop: 38.00
WEL - 8/2/2005 - Long @ 1.40 Target: 2.50 Stop: 0.98
this - 8/10/2005 - Long @ 25.75 Target: 27.25 Stop: 25.75
IPIX - 8/10/2005 - Long @ 3.70 Target: 5.25 Stop: 3.05
AWA - 8/15/2005 - Buy @ 6.95-7.05 Target: 9.00 Stop: 6.05
DWA - 8/15/2005 - Buy @ 23.90-24.00 Target: 32.00 Stop: 22.45
NT - 8/15/2005 - Buy @ 2.85-2.88 Target: 4.50 Stop: 2.50
OZN - 8/15/2005 - Long @ 1.52 Target: 2.25 Stop: 1.19
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CURRENT BULLISH INDEX PICKS
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[Reserved for Subscribers]
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CURRENT BEARISH STOCK PICKS
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GOOG - 7/29/2005 - Short @ 27.30 Target: 257-267 Stop: 317.51
BCR - 8/8/2005 - Short @ 65.25 Target: 57.75-58.25 Stop: 67.71
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CURRENT BEARISH INDEX PICKS
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TLT - 8/10/2005 - Short @ 91.57 Target: 88.00 Stop: 97.05
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EXITED BULLISH STOCK PICKS FOR THE PREVIOUS 30 DAYS
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AEM - Picked(7/6/2005): 12.57 Exited(7/28/2005): 12.08 Result: -0.49
SWC - Picked(7/6/2005): 7.44 Exited(8/17/2005): 8.19 Result: 0.75
TRBS - Picked(7/13/2005): 30.95 Exited(8/4/2005): 29.76 Result: -1.19
KGC - Picked(7/21/2005): 6.23 Exited(7/26/2005): 5.89 Result: -0.34
NEM - Picked(7/22/2005): 38.76 Exited(8/9/2005): 38.76 Result: 0.00
PDG - Picked(7/22/2005): 15.35 Exited(7/28/2005): 13.71 Result: -1.64
CPHD - Picked(7/25/2005): 8.50 Exited(8/10/2005): 7.25 Result: -1.25
NAV - Picked(7/25/2005): 34.30 Exited(8/4/2005): 34.60 Result: 0.30
IOM - Picked(7/27/2005): 2.88 Exited(8/3/2005): 3.18 Result: 0.30
CCJ - Picked(7/28/2005): 49.25 Exited(7/29/2005): 47.45 Result: -1.80
BEAS - Picked(7/29/2005): 9.20 Exited(8/4/2005): 9.38 Result: 0.18
ZILA - Picked(7/29/2005): 3.45 Exited(8/10/2005): 3.45 Result: 0.00
CKCM - Picked(8/1/2005): 26.75 Exited(8/3/2005): 25.90 Result: -0.85
GRA - Picked(8/3/2005): 8.61 Exited(8/17/2005): 9.25 Result: 0.64
AEM - Picked(8/4/2005): 12.85 Exited(8/17/2005): 13.10 Result: 0.25
GLG - Picked(8/4/2005): 18.15 Exited(8/15/2005): 19.15 Result: 1.00
HMY - Picked(8/12/2005): 8.78 Exited(8/17/2005): 8.57 Result: -0.21
NEM - Picked(8/12/2005): 40.70 Exited(8/17/2005): 40.22 Result: -0.48
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EXITED BULLISH INDEX PICKS FOR THE PREVIOUS 30 DAYS
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DIA - Picked(7/27/2005): 106.33 Exited(8/1/2005): 106.28 Result: -0.05
QQQQ - Picked(7/28/2005): 39.75 Exited(8/1/2005): 39.57 Result: -0.18
GLD - Picked(8/1/2005): 43.11 Exited(8/17/2005): 43.95 Result: 0.84
QQQQ - Picked(8/2/2005): 40.04 Exited(8/4/2005): 39.88 Result: -0.16
SPY - Picked(8/2/2005): 124.33 Exited(8/4/2005): 124.27 Result: -0.06
RTH - Picked(8/10/2005): 101.96 Exited(8/16/2005): 99.20 Result: -2.76
SPY - Picked(8/10/2005): 124.28 Exited(8/16/2005): 122.35 Result: -1.93
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EXITED BEARISH STOCK PICKS FOR THE PREVIOUS 30 DAYS
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AWA - Picked(8/1/2005): 8.44 Exited(8/11/2005): 8.02 Result: 0.42
BCR - Picked(8/4/2005): 64.40 Exited(8/5/2005): 63.58 Result: 0.82
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EXITED BEARISH INDEX PICKS FOR THE PREVIOUS 30 DAYS
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TLT - Picked(7/6/2005): 94.63 Exited(7/28/2005): 93.86 Result: 0.77
ICF - Picked(7/22/2005): 74.31 Exited(7/26/2005): 75.26 Result: -0.95
RTH - Picked(7/22/2005): 101.06 Exited(7/27/2005): 102.59 Result: -1.53
DIA - Picked(7/26/2005): 106.01 Exited(7/27/2005): 106.30 Result: -0.29
TLT - Picked(8/1/2005): 92.22 Exited(8/8/2005): 91.82 Result: 0.40
DIA - Picked(8/4/2005): 106.13 Exited(8/8/2005): 105.63 Result: 0.50
IYT - Picked(8/4/2005): 67.85 Exited(8/8/2005): 66.91 Result: 0.94
DIA - Picked(8/8/2005): 105.29 Exited(8/9/2005): 106.34 Result: -1.05
IYT - Picked(8/8/2005): 66.71 Exited(8/9/2005): 67.00 Result: -0.29
TLT - Picked(8/8/2005): 91.61 Exited(8/9/2005): 91.73 Result: -0.12
SPY - Picked(8/16/2005): 122.17 Exited(8/18/2005): 122.51 Result: -0.34
XLE - Picked(8/16/2005): 49.57 Exited(8/17/2005): 48.00 Result: 1.57
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DISCLAIMER
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This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of VRTrader.com may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. VRTrader.com
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.
Copyright © 2005 VRTrader.com.
