For 30 to 90 days horizonShortSPX (S&P cash) 8/5/05 at 1226.42.Short Nasdaq 7/29/05 at 2184.83.
Short term Trade: Flat
For monitoring purposes XAU: Long XAU, 87.96 on4/21/04.
Longer Term Trendmonitoring purposes: Flat.
We have"800" phone update that cost $2.00 a min. and billed to a credit card. Call (1-970-224-3981) for sign up. We updateEastern time at 9:45; 11:30; 1:30; 3:30 and 4:00. Question? Call me (402) 486-0362.
What to expect now.
Today the S&P traded below 8/18low and than closed above it and did so on lighter volume. This condition suggests the S&P is running out of energy to the downsidefor the short term and implies the market may attempt a bounce. A high volume day was recorded on 8/10 at the 1243 range. High volume days are usually tested.
The volume on 8/10 came in at 1.67 billion shares. Toget through the 1243 range the volume would need to be near 1.67 billion shares. A test of the 1243 range on 10% less volume would trigger a bearish signal. Therefore, if there is bounce near term and the S&P does reach the1243 range and volume is 10% less, it would re-confirm the downtrend. Our intermediate term downside target is the April low near the 1140 range. We are short the S&P at 1226.42.
You're invited toThe Ord Oracle two day (
NASDAQMarket:
We have updated the daily graph ofthe Nasdaqwith "Price relative to SPX" indicator. (Courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com). Onthe "Price Relative to SPX" we have drawn an up-trend line from the May low andas of yesterday's close this indicator is still below that line and remains in the"Sell signal Mode". On thevolume part of this graph, notice that volume has contracted some over the last few daysas the market worked modestly lower. Thiscondition suggest that energy is running out to the downside and the market may attempt abounce near term. A high volume day wasrecorded on 8/10 (volume can in at 1.84 billion shares). High volume days are usually tested. Thehigh on 8/10 came in at 2186 range and the Nasdaq could attempt at bounce there beforeheading lower. If the 2186 range is tested onlighter volume, than we may add to our short position. Our downside target for the intermediate term is April low near the 1890range. We are short the Nasdaq at 2184.83.
GOLD Market:
Shortterm trade, Long BGO (4/19/05) at 2.37. Thistrade is separate from our long-term position in BGO.
We have displayed a seasonal chart of Goldfor the last 33 years (courtesy of www.seasonalcharts.com).What we are attempting to illustrate is that goldshould pick near current levels and have one of the strongest year periods going intoOctober. Therefore for the next severalweeks, gold issues should do much better. Patienceis needed and it will be well worth the wait once the next rally gets under way.We double our positions in BGO on(7/30/04) at 2.34 and we now have an average price at 2.70. Long CBJ for an average ofprice of 2.75. Long NXG average of 2.26. We bought PMU (5/27/05) at .50 and bring ouraverage price to .81.
For examples in how "Ord-Volume" works, visit
