S&P 500 CASH
SPX CASH: DailyProjected Support and Resistance levels: High - 1230; Low - 1218
SEPT SP: DailyProjected Support and Resistance levels: High - 1231; Low - 1219
SPX CASH: 5-DayProjected Support and Resistance levels: High - 1217; Low - 1192
SEPT SP: 5-Day ProjectedSupport and Resistance levels: High - 1219; Low - 1194
SPX CASH: MonthlyProjected Support and Resistance levels: High - 1270; Low - 1208
SPX CASH: YearlyProjected Support and Resistance levels: High - 1292; Low - 1135
Current SPX Index Positions:
Mid-term (6-8 weeks) = 25% BULLISH from 1206.49
Short-term (1 day-3 weeks) = NUETRAL
From previous outlook:
Current analysis: The volume notes from last night indicated thathigher highs would be in store for todays session, which we got with the tag of1227.29 - which was just shy of VTL resistance and also the 1228 dailyprojected resistance high. Volume again came in near the 1.7 billion share range, withjust a slight contraction from Wednesdays numbers but is not enough to be a problemfor the time being. As per the notes from last night, we have a possible low in place forthe larger 45 and 90 day cycles, with now confirmed lows for at least the smaller 10 and20 day components. At the bare minimum, if only the smaller daily cycles have bottomed -and the lows for the larger 45 and 90 day components were still out there - then theexpectation would be for prices to make a test of the 1233-1235 region on the SPX. Withtime, the probabilities do not favor a peak before 9/9/05, and thus dips into support inthe next week should be used as opportunities on the buy side. Having said the aboveagain, I think that the odds are even or better that the larger 45 and 90 day cycles didin fact bottom at the swing low from Tuesdays session. First, it was in the normaltime window for a low - and secondly, it came right in line with the August 30
NASDAQ 100 CASH
Daily Projected Support and Resistance levels: High -
5-Day Projected Support and Resistance levels: High - 1573; Low - 1538
Monthly Projected Support and Resistance levels: High - 1680; Low - 1545
Current NDX Index Positions:
Mid-Term (4-8 weeks) = 30% BULLISH from 1573.59
Short-term (1 day - 3 weeks) = NEUTRAL
From previous outlook:
Current analysis: The NDX also made higher swing highs in todayssession, hitting an intraday peak of 1587.82 and holding the downside at Wednesdays1573 daily projected support low. Volume here was also right at the 1.7 billion sharesrange, which is again about equal with Wednesdays figures and confirms the move upthus far. As with the SPX, the probabilities favor a continued push to the upside in thedays ahead, with this index looking best for a 20/45/90 day combo low in place at the 1551low from Tuesdays session. If correct, then the next stop should be the 1600 levelon this index, and should ideally not peak out before 9/9/05 at the earliest - valid ofcourse as long as Tuesdays swing low holds the downside.
On our daily chart above, both the 10 and 20 day oscillators are back inoverbought area already, which is probably not going to be a problem for the short-term - but it does say that the upside in the coming days is going tobe more of a labored affair, with the initial thrust off the bottom havingbeen seen in Wednesdays session. If true, then the coming days are going to see alot of consolidation action, but with each of these expected to give way to higher highsinto at least 9/9/05 or later. Look for support at the 1558-1570 region to hold off thedown as the index makes a go at the 1600 round figure.
Jim Curry
Market Turns Advisory
Email: jcurry@cycle-wave.com
Disclaimer - The financial markets are risky. Investing is risky. Pastperformance does not guarantee future performance. The foregoing has been prepared solelyfor informational purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy or sell anysecurity. Opinions are based on historical research and data believed reliable, but thereis no guarantee that future results will be profitable. The methods used to form opinionsare highly probable and as you follow them for some time you can gain confidence in them.The market can and will do the unexpected, use the sell stops provided to assist in riskavoidance. Not responsible for errors or omissions. Copyright 2005, Jim Curry.