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Market Turns Advisory 9/2/5


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#1 TTHQ Staff

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Posted 02 September 2005 - 09:56 AM



S&P 500 CASH


SPX CASH:
DailyProjected Support and Resistance levels: High - 1230; Low - 1218

SEPT SP:
DailyProjected Support and Resistance levels: High - 1231; Low - 1219

SPX CASH:
5-DayProjected Support and Resistance levels: High - 1217; Low - 1192

SEPT SP:
5-Day ProjectedSupport and Resistance levels: High - 1219; Low - 1194

SPX CASH:
MonthlyProjected Support and Resistance levels: High - 1270; Low - 1208

SPX CASH:
YearlyProjected Support and Resistance levels: High - 1292; Low - 1135

Current SPX Index Positions:

Mid-term (6-8 weeks) = 25% BULLISH from 1206.49

Short-term (1 day-3 weeks) = NUETRAL

From previous outlook:
"Reversing the action of down volumefrom yesterday’s session, volume today came in at 1.79 billion shares - which isactually a 23% expansion from Tuesday’s numbers and for now overrules the down-volumenotes from yesterday and basically says that today’s high should be taken out to theupside again in the coming days. Though today’s action certainly looks promising forthe 45 and 90 day up phases to be in force, we would need to see additional confirm ofthis in the coming days, with the best confirmation being a daily close above VTLresistance, which right now stands just



Current analysis:
The volume notes from last night indicated thathigher highs would be in store for today’s session, which we got with the tag of1227.29 - which was just shy of VTL resistance and also the 1228 dailyprojected resistance high. Volume again came in near the 1.7 billion share range, withjust a slight contraction from Wednesday’s numbers but is not enough to be a problemfor the time being. As per the notes from last night, we have a possible low in place forthe larger 45 and 90 day cycles, with now confirmed lows for at least the smaller 10 and20 day components. At the bare minimum, if only the smaller daily cycles have bottomed -and the lows for the larger 45 and 90 day components were still out there - then theexpectation would be for prices to make a test of the 1233-1235 region on the SPX. Withtime, the probabilities do not favor a peak before 9/9/05, and thus dips into support inthe next week should be used as opportunities on the buy side. Having said the aboveagain, I think that the odds are even or better that the larger 45 and 90 day cycles didin fact bottom at the swing low from Tuesday’s session. First, it was in the normaltime window for a low - and secondly, it came right in line with the August 30th
turn in the Bradley indicator. Adding to that,the breadth and volume action coming off Tuesday’s swing bottom have been very goodand indicate that higher highs are out there for now. Lastly, the combo of the larger180/360 day cycles is not expected to peak until the month of October, so again theprobabilities have to be viewed as even-or-better that the low for this series of largerdown cycles is in place. For the market to prove this assessment incorrect obviously wouldtake a breach of the 1201.07 swing low, key number then in the days and weeks ahead. Fornow, watch for first support to any move lower at the 1212-1218 region, which may continueto contain any minor drops as we make a try at higher levels between now and September 9th.

NASDAQ 100 CASH


Daily Projected Support and Resistance levels: High -
1583; Low - 1568

5-Day Projected Support and Resistance levels: High - 1573; Low - 1538

Monthly Projected Support and Resistance levels: High - 1680; Low - 1545


Current NDX Index Positions:

Mid-Term (4-8 weeks) = 30% BULLISH from 1573.59

Short-term (1 day - 3 weeks) = NEUTRAL

From previous outlook:
"Today’s break and close above the1573 weekly projected resistance high should also now indicate that at least the 10 daycycle up phase is in force on this index - and now with at least the very good possibilitythat the combo of the 20, 45 and 90 day cycle lows are also in place. Volume today came inat 1.7 billion shares, which is a good 14% expansion from yesterday’s levels andindicates higher highs should still beout there for the short-term. If a 10/20/45/90 daycombo low is in place on this index, then the next logical magnet for price would the‘swing resistance’ bar on the daily chart, which is still at the 1590-1602region at today’s close. Prior resistance at the 1572-1573 area would then now act asfirst support to any move lower in the short-term."



Current analysis
: The NDX also made higher swing highs in today’ssession, hitting an intraday peak of 1587.82 and holding the downside at Wednesday’s1573 daily projected support low. Volume here was also right at the 1.7 billion sharesrange, which is again about equal with Wednesday’s figures and confirms the move upthus far. As with the SPX, the probabilities favor a continued push to the upside in thedays ahead, with this index looking best for a 20/45/90 day combo low in place at the 1551low from Tuesday’s session. If correct, then the next stop should be the 1600 levelon this index, and should ideally not peak out before 9/9/05 at the earliest - valid ofcourse as long as Tuesday’s swing low holds the downside.

On our daily chart above, both the 10 and 20 day oscillators are back inoverbought area already, which is probably not going to be a problem for the  short-term - but it does say that  the upside in the coming days is going tobe more of a ‘labored’ affair, with the initial thrust off the bottom havingbeen seen in Wednesday’s session. If true, then the coming days are going to see alot of consolidation action, but with each of these expected to give way to higher highsinto at least 9/9/05 or later. Look for support at the 1558-1570 region to hold off thedown as the index makes a go at the 1600 round figure.

Jim Curry

Market Turns Advisory


Email:
jcurry@cycle-wave.com

Disclaimer - The financial markets are risky. Investing is risky. Pastperformance does not guarantee future performance. The foregoing has been prepared solelyfor informational purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy or sell anysecurity. Opinions are based on historical research and data believed reliable, but thereis no guarantee that future results will be profitable. The methods used to form opinionsare highly probable and as you follow them for some time you can gain confidence in them.The market can and will do the unexpected, use the sell stops provided to assist in riskavoidance. Not responsible for errors or omissions. Copyright 2005, Jim Curry.