*Interview with Ike Iossif on August 18.
Timer Digest has Tim Ord ranked #5 for one year ending 6/3/05 and #2 in Gold for 2004.
For 30 to 90 days horizon: Short SPX (S&P cash) 8/5/05 at 1226.42. Short Nasdaq7/29/05 at 2184.83.
For monitoring purposes Long XAU, 87.96 on 4/21/04
Longer Term Trend monitoring purposes: flat.
What to expect now:
We have displayed the NYSE daily graph along with its McClellan Oscillator and Summationindexes (courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com). On 8/10 the S&P made an intradayhigh at 1245 on volume of 1.67 billion shares (that's huge volume). Most highvolume days are re-tested and once re-tested they turn into resistance zones. Therefore, if the S&P rally back to test the 8/10 high at the 1245 range and volumecomes in 8% or less on the re-test, another sell signal will be triggered. We already havea sell signal on the monthly charts. On the last page of this report we attemptedto compare the same set up at the March high with the Summation index making a lower highand the NYSE making a higher high. Even though the signal may be triggered on theNYSE the signal will be valid for the S&P, especially if the S&P rally back to the1245-resistance zone and volume comes in lighter. We would then have a double sellsignal. For the intermediate term we think the current bounce is a bounce in a downtrendand the S&P may work lower into October and could hit a downside target of 1140 range. We will look to re-short the S&P near the 1245 range.
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Nasdaq Composite:
The Nasdaq has a similar setup as the S&P. The Nasdaq also has a highvolume day on 8/10 at the 2185 range and we anticipate the 8/10 high will be tested. The Volume on 8/10 came in at 1.84 billion shares and a re-test of that level on 8%lighter volume will trigger another sell signal. We already have a sell signal onthe monthly charts both in July and August on price volume relationships. Also the"Price relative to SPX" method is on a sell signal. We have kept orshorts on the Nasdaq in that so many sell signal were triggered. If the 8/10 highof 2185 range is tested on volume of 1.69 billion shares or less, and then close below the8/10 high another short term sell signal will be triggered. In general, we theNasdaq should work lower into the first week of October near the 1900 range. We areshort the Nasdaq at 2184.83.
GOLD Market:
"Timer Digest" has ranked Tim Ord as the #2 gold timer for 2004.
Short term trade, Long BGO (4/19/05) at 2.37. This trade is separate from ourlong-term position in BGO. We bought EGO (gold Issue) at 2.23 (5/26/05). We bought PMU(5/27/05) at .50 and bring our average price to .81.
Below is the XAU displayed with the "Price Relative to Gold" ratio. The"Red Line" drawn on "Price Relative to Gold" down from the November2005 has been "Jumped" and is bullish. The "Price Relative toGold" is now against the larger "Blue Line" down from the November 2004high. This "Jump" through this "Blue Line" will implythat the "Price Relative to Gold" will exceed the November high of 2004 above.275. Notice how the "PR to G" in 2002 exceeded the high of 2001 and"PR to G" in 2003 exceeded the previous high of 2002. Therefore, we would expectthe current rally to approach .30 or better. The strongest part of the Gold issuerally may be right in front of us.
We double our positions in BGO on (7/30/04) at 2.34 and we now have an average price at2.70. Long CBJ for an average of price of 2.75. Long NXG average of 2.26. We bought PMU(5/27/05) at .50 and bring our average price to .81.
The McClellan Oscillator closed today's at +71 and turned up the NYSE Summation index.
The “Percent Volume” Indicator closed .64 and in the bearish level.
The "5 day ARMS" closed today at 4.37 and near the bearish level.
Conclusion: Looking to re-short the SPX near the 1245 range. Short Nasdaq on 7/29 at2184.83.
Longer Term Trend monitoring purposes: Flat.
