2 replies to this topic

[SilentOne]

Well, I'll start this thread with just one chart. If you are wondering if we saw a ST spike top in golds lately, take a close look at the RSI and MACD. They both hit max levels on this run. The key is on the next pullback. We need to get oversold quickly, find support and then crack new highs. If not, well there is always next year for goldbugs.



The chances that we saw a top of some kind are very high. The only question is how long will it last.

I am not sure about the implied cycles here and if they are valid. But note the 21 month intervals mark bottoms, not tops. So do we get the blow off move and breakout this fall and then find a low early next year, or do we start it from this level?? No idea right now.

And BTW, Big M is bearish the PM metals for the next few days at least, so sit back and relax and see what the metals do.

cheers,

john

[SilentOne]

Tech Talk has removed the gold sector from the favoured list:

The period of seasonal strength has ended. The weakest month of the year for gold and gold stocks is the month of October
Fundamental prospects in the short term are “ problematic”. Third quarter earnings reports by major gold producers generally will record good year-over-year gains, but likely will be lower than consensus due to higher energy and chemical costs.
Momentum indicators (e.g. MACD) for gold, gold indices and big cap gold stocks are overbought and likely will record short term sell signals sometime this week.

http://dvtechtalk.co...er/October3.htm

October is definitely a weak month for gold.



And it doesn't look to sh#*hot for silver either.



cheers,

john

[SilentOne]

Here is why gold and silver do not show well on seasonal charts. The bear market of the 80s and 90s killed the sector most Octobers. Now some would say we are in a major PM bull market (me), so it will be different this time around ...

The XAU In October

From Cliff, not my favorite gold TA technician.

cheers,

john