3 replies to this topic

[tsharp]

fwiw, it's been my practice to attempt to interpret the SPX and Dow to as close to the same fractal page as possible; to that end, at this juncture, it appears to me that they both could be heading substantially higher from these levels, if in fact, wave-( b ) was a runner.

if this was the case, '07 could also be up most of the year (as per Armstrong's 97-98 up-cycle), with potential targets for the SPX well above the mid-1300s.

another thing to consider, is that if this interpretation comes to fruition, Wave-IV (Intermediate) could also end up being a runner, which would likely be quite bullish for the bigger picture, i.e. next decade or so... twt:

(update from an earlier post this year -- Armstrong & Benner Cycles):


Current Dow:


Current SPX:

[arbman]

Good to see you and your work! Thanks for sharing! As always very intriguing...

[deacon]

TS u da man with the great stuph i like the grail trades, 20 period ema touch with adx above 30 we are bouncing today off the 20ema 120min chart mighty juicy grails below at the 20ema daily, if we can set up a little a-b-c -UP with a dip down to them minyan guy says: The last day of November, the SPX has finished lower 8 of the last 10 years, by an average of -.62% and the percentage of positive closes remains below 50% if we go out 20, 30 years. the "December Effect" Source: Ryan Jones (Statistics through December 2003) December 1st: "When buying on the open and exiting on the close on the 1st day of December, the market has produced a total of 54 S&P 500 points over the last 14 years while winning 70% of the time. That is 25% of the total of 213 points during the entire month of December on just one day. This is also consistent with the fact that buying the first day of the month on all months has shown strong profits as well."

[deacon]

December Tends To Be An Up Month, If The Market Is Up The Preceding 11 Months "We found out that 27 of the 42 years we tested were up through November. For those 27 years, 78% (21 out 27) of the Decembers wound up closing higher by December 31. And 2.01% was the average gain for those up Decembers. Clearly, there would been an edge if you bought stocks during Decembers that were preceded by a market that was higher for the year at the of November. It's good to keep in mind that, if you were unaware of this research, your edge would have been diminished. The average gain for all 42 Decembers during the entire test period was 1.54%. While there was an upward bias for Decembers overall, the performance of Decembers in which the S&P 500 was up by the end of the November, was significantly better." from tradingmarkets dot