MUY BUENO DAY AMIGOS!
#11
Posted 02 June 2006 - 04:52 AM
#12
Posted 02 June 2006 - 07:41 AM
#13
Posted 02 June 2006 - 07:47 AM
#14
Posted 02 June 2006 - 08:54 AM
Watch out !!
Check this thread for example:
http://www.traders-t...showtopic=49454
It's the illiquidity, stupid !
#15
Posted 02 June 2006 - 09:07 AM
The future is 90% present and 10% vision.
#16
Posted 02 June 2006 - 09:32 AM
Bill Cara's Blog
#17
Posted 02 June 2006 - 10:43 AM
historically, when large number of people agreed with Senor, there was another large leg down.
Watch out !!
Check this thread for example:
http://www.traders-t...showtopic=49454
Greenie, early March 06 was the last major BUYing bottom in miners. I recall you were quite skeptical then and making fun of the "bottom catchers" from the sidelines. What's your position now ?
FWIW, took off my TIE @ 40. Still sticking w/ my target of 42-45 before this run is over, but it tends to frontrun other metals and is up against resistance here. Think it retraces to 37-38, then another move to 42-45. P&F target now says 50+
Would like to see XAU stick above 146, keeps hitting resistance at 144-145. Fibo retrace targets are 148-152, and until those are cleanly taken out, another leg down in the metals IS possible.
Edited by beta, 02 June 2006 - 10:44 AM.
#18
Posted 02 June 2006 - 01:07 PM
Lot's of reasons.
If this is a "decades-long" bull market, which I thinki it is, it's WAY too soon for an endless run without a big pause. They are healthy, but this pullback is just not enough so far, give the run we've had. All the Johny-come-latelys have not been shaken out.
Chart-wise, gold and stocks have all turned down, and should run back to their 200 dma. They always do. And we got so far from the moving average, it always spells trouble.
I want to buy gold stocks, but why buy gold stocks now, when they are pricy in terms of gold? (I sold all my gold stocks when gold shot up to 720, and the stocks stopped going up. And the XAU was way too big compared to the price of gold.) When gold is 5-6 times the price of the XAU, then I'll be very interested again. looking forward to it. That ratio is heading the wrong way now, but it will turn with a vengence.
Anyway, maybe BS is right. But then, his position seems to be "60/40 the correction is over", so of course he's right either way. That's not really a prediction at all . . .
My position is the correction is not over for many months, and we will see the XAU at 110 before we see it at 175. And I'll be buying hand over fist at that point.
Time will tell.
Good luck all.
#19
Posted 03 June 2006 - 12:26 PM
Greenie, early March 06 was the last major BUYing bottom in miners. I recall you were quite skeptical then and making fun of the "bottom catchers" from the sidelines. What's your position now ?
FWIW, took off my TIE @ 40. Still sticking w/ my target of 42-45 before this run is over, but it tends to frontrun other metals and is up against resistance here. Think it retraces to 37-38, then another move to 42-45. P&F target now says 50+
Would like to see XAU stick above 146, keeps hitting resistance at 144-145. Fibo retrace targets are 148-152, and until those are cleanly taken out, another leg down in the metals IS possible.
Hi Beta,
Please check the March archieves. I turned bullish 10 days after that, when the true bottom came in March. After I commented on the bottom-catchers, XAU dropped sharply by another 5% in what was C down of the ABC correction.
Right now, I am 100% long gold miners, but not leveraged. I think the bottom has passed. Both my breadth and trin data support continuation of the rally. In fact breadth is getting better and better in every decline. Also sentiment (Hulbert) suggests that the bottom has passed. I am not taking full leverage before seeing how the market reacts at the upper resistance (XAU gap right above us). BGO is trying to close the gap, and how it does so will tell us a lot about the rest of miners.
In any case, I believe this will be the most explosive phase in gold and miners. Staying out is the biggest risk at this point.
Best to you,
G.
Best,
G.
It's the illiquidity, stupid !