18 replies to this topic

[pigeon]

I love you Senor! Let me join in the chorus of congratulations for buying at the exact bottom after having sold at the exact top!

[Jnavin]

Well now, wait a second. Senor does excellent work and I love the guy, but the "exact bottom" was last week not yesterday. He missed it. Not that it will matter in the long run, but just in the interest of accuracy.

[senorBS]

Amigo I appreciate the sentiment but I did not sell at the exact top, sold trading position near HUI 375 for modest gains. I do have nice entries (in GDX) on recent decline but not exact bottom either. Muy bueno early gold and silver trading this morning - grande norte Senor hopes. PURE BS Senor

[greenie]

historically, when large number of people agreed with Senor, there was another large leg down.

Watch out !!

Check this thread for example:

http://www.traders-t...showtopic=49454

[Tor]

Look, on the level I have the utmost respect for Senor and personally am very grateful to him for sharing his views, like the others here. However, I must try and form my own views, like everyone here must IMO. I personally think we will see some more testing right here. By that I mean the 48-50 level. All FWIW. I base this on the chart pattern, but overall still think NEM is forming a bull flag on the weeklies. Good trading to all (and good weekend to all!).

[Mike]

Here's a link to an interesting blog hosted by Bill Cara. Several blog posts down there's one titled "A glittering PM day ahead, Fri., June 2, 2006, 6:52 AM" Also read his "About Us" to learn more about him.

Bill Cara's Blog

[beta]

historically, when large number of people agreed with Senor, there was another large leg down.

Watch out !!

Check this thread for example:

http://www.traders-t...showtopic=49454

Greenie, early March 06 was the last major BUYing bottom in miners. I recall you were quite skeptical then and making fun of the "bottom catchers" from the sidelines. What's your position now ?

FWIW, took off my TIE @ 40. Still sticking w/ my target of 42-45 before this run is over, but it tends to frontrun other metals and is up against resistance here. Think it retraces to 37-38, then another move to 42-45. P&F target now says 50+



Would like to see XAU stick above 146, keeps hitting resistance at 144-145. Fibo retrace targets are 148-152, and until those are cleanly taken out, another leg down in the metals IS possible.

Edited by beta, 02 June 2006 - 10:44 AM.

[dougie]

Well your last Gold call was June 2005 near the bottom and you urged folks to buy puts!

Lot's of reasons.
If this is a "decades-long" bull market, which I thinki it is, it's WAY too soon for an endless run without a big pause. They are healthy, but this pullback is just not enough so far, give the run we've had. All the Johny-come-latelys have not been shaken out.
Chart-wise, gold and stocks have all turned down, and should run back to their 200 dma. They always do. And we got so far from the moving average, it always spells trouble.
I want to buy gold stocks, but why buy gold stocks now, when they are pricy in terms of gold? (I sold all my gold stocks when gold shot up to 720, and the stocks stopped going up. And the XAU was way too big compared to the price of gold.) When gold is 5-6 times the price of the XAU, then I'll be very interested again. looking forward to it. That ratio is heading the wrong way now, but it will turn with a vengence.
Anyway, maybe BS is right. But then, his position seems to be "60/40 the correction is over", so of course he's right either way. That's not really a prediction at all . . .
My position is the correction is not over for many months, and we will see the XAU at 110 before we see it at 175. And I'll be buying hand over fist at that point.
Time will tell.
Good luck all.

[greenie]

Greenie, early March 06 was the last major BUYing bottom in miners. I recall you were quite skeptical then and making fun of the "bottom catchers" from the sidelines. What's your position now ?

FWIW, took off my TIE @ 40. Still sticking w/ my target of 42-45 before this run is over, but it tends to frontrun other metals and is up against resistance here. Think it retraces to 37-38, then another move to 42-45. P&F target now says 50+



Would like to see XAU stick above 146, keeps hitting resistance at 144-145. Fibo retrace targets are 148-152, and until those are cleanly taken out, another leg down in the metals IS possible.

Hi Beta,

Please check the March archieves. I turned bullish 10 days after that, when the true bottom came in March. After I commented on the bottom-catchers, XAU dropped sharply by another 5% in what was C down of the ABC correction.

Right now, I am 100% long gold miners, but not leveraged. I think the bottom has passed. Both my breadth and trin data support continuation of the rally. In fact breadth is getting better and better in every decline. Also sentiment (Hulbert) suggests that the bottom has passed. I am not taking full leverage before seeing how the market reacts at the upper resistance (XAU gap right above us). BGO is trying to close the gap, and how it does so will tell us a lot about the rest of miners.

In any case, I believe this will be the most explosive phase in gold and miners. Staying out is the biggest risk at this point.

Best to you,
G.


Best,
G.