My concern is the small sample.
Imagine if you only had sentiment data from 1998-2000. Your picture would be very biased by one direction. Up.
Your date is from the great 2 years of the 4 year cycle. The bounce after the crash.
2 years from now we may know much more! Data over the 4 year cycle is needed.
Thanks for sharing.
Scott.
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Traders-Talk Polls
Started by
mortiz
, Sep 09 2006 06:52 AM
12 replies to this topic
#11
Posted 09 September 2006 - 12:49 PM
#12
Posted 09 September 2006 - 12:55 PM
Actually I'm only half right.
I'd like more data over the whole cycle, but the best 2 years are ahead, not behind us!
Sorry.
Scott
#13
Posted 12 September 2006 - 01:40 PM
Randy's original links here:
Since the daily position polls and bullish-bearish polls have been offered, I have jotted down the daily numbers... couple comments about these polls:
1) The data measures sentiment, so the question is: how "extreme" is "extreme"?
2) These polls are not money-on-the-table indicators, they are votes which may or may not reflect the actual money-on-the-table status of the participants.
First the daily Bull-Bear poll since late 2003. The blue curve is a 5 day SMA of the (Bulls)/(Bulls + Bears) percentage
![Posted Image](http://img90.imageshack.us/img90/5724/ttbullbearpolljn4.png)
Next is the "Position Poll" results since its inception in the spring of 2004. Partial and Fully long- Partial and Fully short position votes are grouped as bullish or bearish positions respectively. A 5 day SMA of each group is derived, then the blue curve is determined by: Bull 5 day MA - Bear 5 Day MA
![Posted Image](http://img136.imageshack.us/img136/7199/ttpositionpollia1.png)
FWIW
Randy N.
Since the daily position polls and bullish-bearish polls have been offered, I have jotted down the daily numbers... couple comments about these polls:
1) The data measures sentiment, so the question is: how "extreme" is "extreme"?
2) These polls are not money-on-the-table indicators, they are votes which may or may not reflect the actual money-on-the-table status of the participants.
First the daily Bull-Bear poll since late 2003. The blue curve is a 5 day SMA of the (Bulls)/(Bulls + Bears) percentage
![Posted Image](http://img90.imageshack.us/img90/5724/ttbullbearpolljn4.png)
Next is the "Position Poll" results since its inception in the spring of 2004. Partial and Fully long- Partial and Fully short position votes are grouped as bullish or bearish positions respectively. A 5 day SMA of each group is derived, then the blue curve is determined by: Bull 5 day MA - Bear 5 Day MA
![Posted Image](http://img136.imageshack.us/img136/7199/ttpositionpollia1.png)
FWIW
Randy N.
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