4 replies to this topic

[hiker]

Edited by hiker, 19 September 2006 - 10:22 PM.

[PorkLoin]

Hiker, I wondered that too -- and the same for Arch Coal (also has had the share price cut in half) as well as CNX. These were overdone on the upside (said with the benefit of hindsight) and surely at some point they will be overdone on the downside. I say that because I find it implausible that coal consumption will go down or even not increase. Best, Doug

[hiker]

Doug - BTU is the one to focus on for a core holding in my opinion because it leads the low sulphur coal asset size.

so it closed below $35 for the first time since the summer 2005 ...when will this bottom? How soon? Before month-end? Wait to see if $56-58 crude oil is tested?

...note the volume candle today vs. the recent days when $35 was tested...the close on 9/12 was 35.07:



CNX -

Edited by hiker, 20 September 2006 - 05:39 PM.

[kc135a]

I was also spending some time on coal tonight.

Notice on the below weekly chart of ACI how it peaked May 2001, sold off into the week ending 9/28/01
to the red 200 week MA, and then rallied within a month to the light blue 50 week MA.

If you are into fractals that is a pretty good similarity. I sent this to a fellow on another board and he
computed the percentage drop from the 2001 high to low would be the same for this year from the high
to the 22 area.

Could be a good trade developing here after quarter end window dressing back up to the light blue
50 week MA.




KC

[PorkLoin]

BTU is the one to focus on for a core holding in my opinion because it leads the low sulphur coal asset size.

Hiker, I agree! I think Peabody is the best coal co. in the US. I'm surprised that BTU went down more on a percentage basis than CNX.

Elliott Wave-wise, looks to me like BTU could be finishing up the downtrend, and I'm watching closely. The Bear might be losing his punch. Will definitely wait for confirmation on this one -- heck, who knows -- a general stock market downdraft coupled with a continuing resource/energy decline could give us $25 or even $20, though I'd say it'd be a steal there.

Best,
Doug