5 replies to this topic

[fauxpas13]

[fauxpas13]

May be last chart post for awhile

[fauxpas13]

Should've added, a clear break of 10/13 low needed as strong indication larger correction/consolidation underway as opposed to minor pullback within ongoing 5th leg up from 10/11

[hiker]

we'll miss your quality work here...thanks for sharing with us lately. you think it unlikely that nat gas will move above $7 before year-end?....I see your b/o level above Peace, Steve

Edited by hiker, 17 October 2006 - 05:45 AM.

[fauxpas13]

wrt to nat gas - 6.80 was last swing high so could see it not only taking that out but 7.00 as well...in the very short term...if get follow-thru on today's channel b/o...here's chart I posted at Wollieworld last week with inset of updated action for Friday, Monday...have the decline from Dec 2005 as a-b-c-x-a-b-c





Thank you for the nice words. I haven't been trading individual stocks for some time but your posts are superb as usual, enjoy looking at many. May post, just tired recently so nonessential gets cut first

[PorkLoin]

Fauxpas, I too appreciate your posts. That ABCXABC could well be the deal, and it may not matter too much in the long run -- going from 15+ to under 5 surely constitutes "a bear market," though it's not impossible it will go farther.

We had clear negative divergence at last Dec's high and had a positive one at the recent low. I've seen long-term (as in many years) Elliott Wave counts for natural gas, but I don't see much point in them. Commodities often have "self-contained" bull and bear markets, and relating to the action of many years ago as a continuous wave count often seems silly to me.

The $4 to $4.50 area was interesting way back in 1996 and 1997, but better to focus on more recent events as you've done, IMO. Now we've got pretty substantial lows in 2003, 2004 and 2006, and the chart looks half-decently bullish with that MACD. Bearishly, I guess it could be argued that we're just in a big downward channel, though. COT right now looks quite bullish for crude oil but the Commercials haven't eased up on their net shorts in natural gas.

I like the look of your five-wave count off the September low but am also wondering if maybe we need five large waves down from the August high to complete the move, as in a big "C." I reckon we won't have to wait too long to find out.


Best,

Doug