5 replies to this topic

[Jnavin]

HGT

Now showing a positive momentum divergence on the weekly -- between the high-volume May low and the recent October low. P&F chart remains constructive. What about a stop loss at 24? Thinly-traded.

Edited by Jnavin, 20 October 2006 - 03:02 PM.

[PorkLoin]

John, looks pretty good to me if one is willing to bet on natural gas having had a bottom. The monthly chart needs some real oomph to turn it around but the weekly and daily look decent. Going clear back to the beginning, I like this chart. Last four weeks of NG pricing look bullish to me but I don't know if I'd call THE bottom yet. COT Commercials are still bigtime short, unlike for oil. Yeah -- $24 is some prominent support. Best, Doug

[fauxpas13]

Sir Loin:

Wrt earlier thread...the reason I liked the ng Sep bottom as completed 'c', rather than a '3 of c' is based on my own opinion that third waves do not have wedge/ending diag type 5ths (much less truncated 5ths...a comment I saw somewhere on someone's chart of something). For trading, they might as well all be labeled U and D...for up or down...lol. Looks to me like the U in nat gas has further to run...that ugly candle in Nov contract was a successful backtest of the channel breakout.

[Jnavin]

What's about to unfold: a lower low on natural gas that completes the sell-off, but HGT fails to go lower than 24 while ng is completing the wave structure. Something like that.

[PorkLoin]

I know Stockcharts' "continuous contract" chart isn't the same as the futures, especially a given month, but to me this thing looks bullish here. It's rallied enough to well overlap the July low. I'd like to see the individual contracts do it, like get December above 9, but you can't have everything and that's a lot of rally to miss while waiting anyway. A big three-wave decline with clear positive divergence at the September low.

Worthy Fauxpas, December certainly may have made a major bottom there. I doubt we'll have to wait too long to see if it's 123... or ABC off the Sept. low. My gut feeling looking at your chart is that the Aug. - Sept. decline only looks like three waves, not a completed "five," but I'm also not saying we need a month-long or more fourth wave. All in all might be a double zig-zag down from the December high on the continuation chart, with the Aug - Sept. decline being a final ABC.



Right now I'm pretty neutral but bullishly hopeful and still quite invested. Stocks are high for NG and the COT isn't looking good now but we'll see.

Mister John, certainly could go that way -- pretty easy for the December contract to make a new low or double bottom if we still need to finish the decline, and very easy for the later months. For the NG stocks to show relative strength would be no surprise here.

Best,

Doug

[fauxpas13]

Doug - funny you should mention above 9.00...as a break back above last 2 days high in Dec will put a 9.40-9.45 target in play wrt COT, dif markets have dif type commercials participating and some markets highly correlate with the commercials' positions while others don't...in the usual sense the COT is viewed by traders, one would have thought the kind of commercial interest seen now in your ng chart would've been there in Jan 06 with it trading above 15, no? Could simply be producers only became concerned about hedging risk and locking in prices against further price erosion once the market moved back under 7, as opposed to "betting" on those further declines...how it looks to me from when they started taking much of any interest .