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Elliott Wave in URRE


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#1 PorkLoin

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Posted 25 October 2006 - 05:47 PM

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The Big Plunge came, and as far as weekly bars I think it looks good here.

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Got long near the end of the plunge via willingness to let the falling knife stick right in my head. Dumb luck, nothing more -- I usually don't even watch stuff intraday. From there, URRE traced out a textbook five-wave rally to red point 1 as I have it labled. The fifth wave was clearly weaker on momentum, so I sold at the level of the top of what I was counting as the third wave. I noted these trades in the thread below, titled "Uranium, $53.25..."

Then down to green point A which could have been a completed correction itself. Yet no, the market needed more, and we later went through a Fibonacci .618 retracement of the rally from 1.80 to 3.25, making a larger green ABC. Got long on a limit order at the 62% level.

And it's rallied again, so far so good, but there are some cross-currents here. Up-hours the last couple days have had much more volume than when going down, but price is not accelerating like it should be if this is a third wave, and many uranium stocks have been very strong the last two days. The 3.20 - 3.25 level resistance is close by above, and the downtrend line of the last 7 months on the weekly chart isn't too far off. If it's not a 123... from the low on October 12 but rather ABC, then C would equal the length of A (a common relationship) at 3.36

If it got through 3.25, would it stop at 3.36, though? I doubt it -- I'd think it would head for $4, and you can see why on the weekly chart. At 3.70 the move from the low of Oct. 12 would equal the rally up to the high of Sept. 29. But this thing isn't rallying like it "should."

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Perhaps we're making a longer, more complex correction here, as above. That's just one possible count. The Plunge was a big shock to the market, and maybe we need more time to recover and settle down. I'm going to put in an order to sell 1/3 of the position at 3.36, and just see what happens with the rest, for now. What was going like an idealized Elliott Wave count now has me wondering....


Best,

Doug

#2 PorkLoin

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Posted 26 October 2006 - 12:10 PM

Filled on selling the 1/3 position @ 3.36 High of the day so far is 3.39 All's well so far.

#3 PorkLoin

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Posted 01 November 2006 - 11:28 AM

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This has been quite a rally back. The downtrend line could be drawn differently, like from the mid-June high, and it would have a less steep slope. URRE would still be getting right up to it, and the gap on the day of the Plunge is getting filled.

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The :redbull: is stomping. Thus far it looks like another straightforward impulsive move up from the October 12 low. The $4 area is probably going to be tough to get through, per the daily chart. Bearishly, the whole rally could be a larger ABC, 5-3-5 counting as I did with the hourly chart above. I doubt it though, considering the action of uranium stocks in general lately.

From the low it could also be a series of 1s and 2s, very bullish. For now I don't know and I'm content to hold it and sit and watch what happens, as with most other uranuim issues.


Best,

Doug

#4 PorkLoin

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Posted 11 November 2006 - 02:51 PM

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Wow - who would have thought it would get over $6 so fast? Friday's spike sure looks like some type of top and I'm going to watch what happens Monday and probably sell half my remaining position.


Doug

Edited by PorkLoin, 11 November 2006 - 02:55 PM.