Ecomony about to take off
#1
Posted 24 December 2006 - 09:14 AM
-.6
-1.0
-.5
-.1
-.1
+.3
+1.2
+1.6
+1.5
+1.8
+2.8
+3.4
http://www.businesscycle.com/
ECRI monitors over 100 proprietary cyclical indexes for major economies covering more than 85% of world GDP. We regularly interpret this data to form a sophisticated cyclical forecast which is available by subscription.
As The Economist magazine recently noted, "ECRI is perhaps the only organization to give advance warning of each of the past three recessions; just as impressive, it has never issued a false alarm."
OTOH
... bear markets ... almost always begin when the rate of growth in real GDP is at or still close to its peak ... and continue as the rate of growth continues to slow.* By the time Real GDP is approaching “zero” growth or an actual decline (“recession”), most of the economic damage has been done, it is far too late for businesses to adjust, and the bear market is largely over.
http://www.aheadofth....com/04-01.html
Defenders of the status quo are always stronger than reformers seeking change,
UNTIL the status quo self-destructs from its own corruption, and the reformers are free to build on its ashes.
#2
Posted 24 December 2006 - 11:55 AM
#3
Posted 24 December 2006 - 12:47 PM
#4
Posted 24 December 2006 - 12:57 PM
ECRI weekly leading indicator growth starting from 9/29
-.6
-1.0
-.5
-.1
-.1
+.3
+1.2
+1.6
+1.5
+1.8
+2.8
+3.4
http://www.businesscycle.com/
ECRI monitors over 100 proprietary cyclical indexes for major economies covering more than 85% of world GDP. We regularly interpret this data to form a sophisticated cyclical forecast which is available by cription.
As The Economist magazine recently noted, "ECRI is perhaps the only organization to give advance warning of each of the past three recessions; just as impressive, it has never issued a false alarm."
OTOH
... bear markets ... almost always begin when the rate of growth in real GDP is at or still close to its peak ... and continue as the rate of growth continues to slow.* By the time Real GDP is approaching “zero” growth or an actual decline (“recession”), most of the economic damage has been done, it is far too late for businesses to adjust, and the bear market is largely over.
http://www.aheadofth....com/04-01.html
M3 is going NORTE muy grande, I'd say the spigots are wide open and a rising tide of money =
http://www.nowandfut...slides/m3b.html
BS is beautiful
Senor
#5
Posted 24 December 2006 - 01:09 PM
And in light of the fact that homeownership is now >5% above its long-term historical mean, the significance of the current downturn should be considerably amplified.
#6
Posted 24 December 2006 - 01:34 PM
#7
Posted 24 December 2006 - 02:20 PM
#8
Posted 24 December 2006 - 03:09 PM
In the narrowest, most literal, and least interesting sense of the word: of course, the future will be "different" from the past. Now if you have some substantive insight into why the impact of housing on the economy should be discounted during the year ahead, perhaps you'll be so kind as to share it with us. But if the only point of your reply was to cavil about my choice of words . . . . well, moved by the spirit of the season, I'll refrain from responding in kind.It is always different. This time is no exception.
Charles
#9
Posted 24 December 2006 - 03:27 PM
#10
Posted 24 December 2006 - 03:27 PM