6 replies to this topic

[redfoliage2]

SPX is at a distance above the 50 dma, which has consistently caused corrections during the 7-month up run. I don't think there will be an exception this time. Moreover, indicators such as STO, CCI are showing negative divergences (ND). RSI also showing ND but to a milder degree. Sorry, if this may offend those bulls calling for a non-stop run:
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX...8862&r=8134

Edited by redfoliage2, 08 February 2007 - 08:30 AM.

[redfoliage2]

SPX is at a distance above the 50 dma, which has consistently caused corrections during the 7-month up run. I don't think there will be an exception this time. Moreover, indicators such as STO, CCI are showing negative divergences (ND). RSI also showing ND but to a milder degree. Sorry, if this may offend those bulls calling for a non-stop run:
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX...8862&r=8134

McClellan Oscillator just turned down from recent cycle top:
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NYM...58672&r=581

Edited by redfoliage2, 08 February 2007 - 08:52 AM.

[jjc]

SPX is at a distance above the 50 dma, which has consistently caused corrections during the 7-month up run. I don't think there will be an exception this time. Moreover, indicators such as STO, CCI are showing negative divergences (ND). RSI also showing ND but to a milder degree. Sorry, if this may offend those bulls calling for a non-stop run:
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX...8862&r=8134

Ok redfoliage I bite. How do you measure the distance to 50 dma? # of points or sigma from MA? or
dB ... mdB?

[redfoliage2]

SPX is at a distance above the 50 dma, which has consistently caused corrections during the 7-month up run. I don't think there will be an exception this time. Moreover, indicators such as STO, CCI are showing negative divergences (ND). RSI also showing ND but to a milder degree. Sorry, if this may offend those bulls calling for a non-stop run:
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX...8862&r=8134

Ok redfoliage I bite. How do you measure the distance to 50 dma? # of points or sigma from MA? or
dB ... mdB?

You may measure the distance by counting points, but I use a ruler for convenience. It's compared with the previous distances. The current one is a little more than the average run. BTW: yesterday we saw the intra-day reversal, which indicates power players exiting once that distance meets the target. With little doubt, I expect SPX will test the 50 dma befoe long.

Edited by redfoliage2, 08 February 2007 - 09:14 AM.

[spielchekr]

I've been thinking of doing this poll: "The next 2% day will be: 1) up 2) down" Just haven't gotten around to it. Anyone else want to set up?

Edited by spielchekr, 08 February 2007 - 09:18 AM.

[Gary Smith]

SPX is at a distance above the 50 dma, which has consistently caused corrections during the 7-month up run. I don't think there will be an exception this time. Moreover, indicators such as STO, CCI are showing negative divergences (ND). RSI also showing ND but to a milder degree. Sorry, if this may offend those bulls calling for a non-stop run:
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX...8862&r=8134

Can't comment on your indicators as they aren't my thing but if ever the time is ripe for a decline I think you could well be spot-on. Yesterday the market came back impressively from a late day sell-off. Today it looks pretty ugly for the open based on the futures. I think they will try to bring them up from the down open and fail today and we actually get a broad-based decline as reflected in the advance-decline line. As you say, there seems to be too many bulls getting too entrenched in this non-stop bull run scenario. Perhaps this morning's ever increasing news of the sub-prime fiasco will be what it takes. I'm still a bull but think we need to derail that type of thinking and today could be a good start. On the other hand, if I am wrong and they close this thing up today, then even I will be amazed at the resilience of this thing.

[redfoliage2]

SPX is at a distance above the 50 dma, which has consistently caused corrections during the 7-month up run. I don't think there will be an exception this time. Moreover, indicators such as STO, CCI are showing negative divergences (ND). RSI also showing ND but to a milder degree. Sorry, if this may offend those bulls calling for a non-stop run:
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX...8862&r=8134

Can't comment on your indicators as they aren't my thing but if ever the time is ripe for a decline I think you could well be spot-on. Yesterday the market came back impressively from a late day sell-off. Today it looks pretty ugly for the open based on the futures. I think they will try to bring them up from the down open and fail today and we actually get a broad-based decline as reflected in the advance-decline line. As you say, there seems to be too many bulls getting too entrenched in this non-stop bull run scenario. Perhaps this morning's ever increasing news of the sub-prime fiasco will be what it takes. I'm still a bull but think we need to derail that type of thinking and today could be a good start. On the other hand, if I am wrong and they close this thing up today, then even I will be amazed at the resilience of this thing.

Although the dip buyers (or weak shorters) pushed it back a little bit late in the day, the reversal from the HOD was a valid one. I expect SPX will test 50 dma before too long like it did with previous runs. But the seasonality is not in favor of bulls this time like it did last year.