Greenberg on NFI
#1
Posted 21 February 2007 - 02:13 PM
Marketwatch
#2
Posted 21 February 2007 - 02:35 PM
Edited by xD&Cox, 21 February 2007 - 02:37 PM.
#3
Posted 21 February 2007 - 02:36 PM
Edited by hiker, 21 February 2007 - 02:41 PM.
#4
Posted 21 February 2007 - 02:41 PM
note 1 min volume candles just now on the move below $10...I bought a very small postion near 9.90.....
it has been riding the 20 ma on the 1 minute for a while now
does it have a hope of setting up a double bottom intraday?
now riding the 5 ma down on the 1 minute
Wow -- I wish you luck with this. Nimble VST trading is a skill I don't have.
IT, I believe this puppy has a real chance of going to zero. The herd must be culled, and NFI is one of its weakest members.
#5
Posted 21 February 2007 - 03:03 PM
Here's the scenario I expect to unfold as set forth by someone commenting on CR's blog:I think it is going to spread to home builders as the charts suggest. and I am really getting closer to short them big time.
In today's wild and crazy markets, hedge funds have been borrowing money from banks to take on CDO tranches-- they are a key part of the market liquidity. So you have levered holders of CDOs. If something goes wrong, the market could be flooded with low quality MBS/CDO, as the hedge funds (also 'marked to market') will be forced to sell, and effectively the new issue market for MBS will be shut down. At which point, only banks that keep mortgages on their balance sheet will be lending.
And we will be back to a world of 20% cash down, first mortgages only. The remaining banks will only lend as first mortagors to prime residential real estate, because they will not be able to shift the mortgages off balance sheet and so free up reserves for more lending. This is called a 'credit crunch'. The housing market will, accordingly, freeze up for some time.
That is the danger.
Home builders, of course, will feel the pain. But so will BKX, XBD, and RLX which can be shorted from their current perch at the very top of the cliff.