5 replies to this topic

[eminimee]

If indeed that's what it is....we may get the W.

TRAN may have put in a top.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$OEX&p=15&yr=0&mn=2&dy=27&i=p55825739825&a=89308538&r=6159.png

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$TRAN&p=W&yr=10&mn=6&dy=0&i=p47243343293&a=34410261&r=2904.png

[bobalou]

HI T,I should think the oex could go deeper then you have pointed out, the last I looked at my bs ,the oex was weaker then the spx, and then the nas.now ,we could have the window right,but the #s ?.we are in window dressing, low window,and should look to play the bounce..

Edited by bobalou, 27 February 2007 - 07:01 AM.

[Tokyo]

If indeed that's what it is....we may get the W.

TRAN may have put in a top.

this is S&P500 (cash) 4-hour Ichimoku since last summer.
Since the price have moved above the cloud top on 25th July 2006, it stayed above the cloud except only once in early January 2007 (light blue arrow)



I will make this chart a bit bigger



If S&P500 wants to avoid a fall, the price has to stay above the cloud = 1441.59 (light blue arrow)
if it goes below the top of the cloud, the bottom of the cloud is 1428.48 (pink arrow).

also if you use the Chiko line (yellow), once the price moves below 1441.59, the next big support will be at 1426.44 (lower lilac arrow).
if the price stays above 1441.59, the first top target will be 1446, then 1448.25

Tea
do 1428.48 and/or 1426.44 mean anything on EW point of view? (I have no knowledge of EW)

thanks

[eminimee]

Tokoyo...no...1428 area means nothing as far as ewave goes...at least not to me. That's not to say it may end up being something. What I do have at 1432 is the top of what I think is the 1st wave of and ED and also the bottom of the 4th. The TL shown just underneath better hold if we need the last leg of the 3 wave 5th.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&i=p07339324012&a=79053340&r=7613.png

[Tokyo]

Tokoyo...no...1428 area means nothing as far as ewave goes...at least not to me. That's not to say it may end up being something. What I do have at 1432 is the top of what I think is the 1st wave of and ED and also the bottom of the 4th. The TL shown just underneath better hold if we need the last leg of the 3 wave 5th.

Thanks, Tea

yes 1432 means something on Ichimoku, too.

This is the weekly Ichimoku (S&P500 cash)



This week's Tenkan line (pink line) is at 1432.77 (purple arrow)
Since July 2006, only once the weekly candle penetrated below that Tenkan line during the week of 29th Jan (light blue line)
I sold heavily at the bottom and stopped out miserably that week


As you may know, China market fell 9+% today. what I want to know is if this is the begining of unwind of the Yen/Chf carry trades. European market went down but not as much as China did. Gold is lower but not collapsing. Have to watch carefully on CRB index today, too

I may be very wrong, but as far as USD/Yen and Cross/Yens are going lower, US indices will folllow them (lower)
that is my take.
let's see

thanks for your help, Tea

[eminimee]

re yen carry trade. In my opinion...it may get unwound to a degree and that will help in the upcoming correction...but all it will do is get "reset" and put back on again. I seriously don't think it comes totally unwound on an interest rate move from .25 to .50.