3 replies to this topic

[arbman]

My guess would be more down sooner or later, this entire decline must be driven by the BoJ, first the yen carry trades were liquidated in China, then here... These 1:10 leveraged yen carry trades must be very dangerous for the markets. In the mean time, the US markets are learning whether their derivatives markets will be also bullet proof... The reason: despite this liquidation, the USD did not even bounce well. I don't think this is well understood in relation to the markets. So let me write it down again: THE USD DID NOT BOUNCE STRONGLY TODAY. It means the Fed is still stuck after today and the yield curve is more screwed up. A bounce, yes, more bull market before the two gets fixed, no. - kisa

[redfoliage2]

My guess would be more down sooner or later, this entire decline must be driven by the BoJ, first the yen carry trades were liquidated in China, then here... These 1:10 leveraged yen carry trades must be very dangerous for the markets. In the mean time, the US markets are learning whether their derivatives markets will be also bullet proof...

The reason: despite this liquidation, the USD did not even bounce well. I don't think this is well understood in relation to the markets. So let me write it down again:

THE USD DID NOT BOUNCE STRONGLY TODAY.

It means the Fed is still stuck after today and the yield curve is more screwed up.

A bounce, yes, more bull market before the two gets fixed, no.

- kisa

I could not agree more. I noticed early morning that Yen was up nearly 1%, I knew it meant a stock market plunge worldwide was imminent.

[Jnavin]

Yes indeed. Probably lost a few hedge funds today too.

[arbman]

By my definitions, the market has crashed today. My definition of crash is more than 4 standard deviation move within 21 days. This price only definition is common to all of the previous stock market crashes.

Edited by kisacik, 27 February 2007 - 04:04 PM.