7 replies to this topic

[CLK]

All my daily indicators have bottmed and turning up, including NDX and SPX:VIX. Still long w/hedge. I'll admit the morning drop was a bit concerning.

[eminimee]

if your hedge kept you even on a 60 point ES drop the other day...it must be killing you with a rising market.

[CLK]

I converted that hedge to a long position yesterday.

[eminimee]

so when you say you are long with a hedge...what does that mean???? Sorry, I'm trying to understand. Maybe it would help if you told me what vehical was that hedge to converted to long....and what vehical you are using now as a hedge.

Edited by Teaparty, 01 March 2007 - 01:35 PM.

[CLK]

so when you say you are long with a hedge...what does that mean???? Sorry, I'm trying to understand. Maybe it would help if you told me what vehical was that hedge to converted to long....and what vehical you are using now as a hedge.

I closed my DJX short(which was my hedge from the top) and opened
DJX long and added an IWM short which basically gives me a straddle,
but I'm holding some stock that's moving up(too dangerous to post right now).

Just stressing the importance of hedging at times, especially during high volatility.

[fib_1618]

All my daily indicators have bottomed and turning up

Yup, just "hammering" out a 5th wave bottom from this morning.

Fib

[beta]

Just stressing the importance of hedging at times, especially during high volatility.

Agree. I would not be naked long right now, given today's clear breakout signal on QID.

Only way to play this is FADE EXTREMES BOTH WAYS. I am also long select plays (gold/uranium/China solar/HMC), with hedges.

I think we get one more shot @ QID in the 53's before it runs to 58-62, maybe as early as next week.

If we close at these levels, Im looking for a 100 pt+ run to sell longs into tomorrow.



_________________
... one clarification: QID "Breakout" assumes that it closes green on this high record volume. A negative close would take it back to the base @ 50-52's IMO. Will largely determine action for next 2 weeks.

Edited by beta, 01 March 2007 - 03:15 PM.

[arbman]

I went back and read this note of mine, so I am quoting here again, just to see whether I had any accurate prediction about the human psychology here. I don't think we are in a perfect wave-B spot, perhaps one more low later in March...

This is what makes this market very dangerous, depsite what appears to be the highly bearish bets, OEX P/C opened at 4.5 this morning and declined steadily to 2...

Anyhow, the dates are skewed by about 10-15 trading days now because of the early low... I clarified at this new post...

All of my indicators are pretty much rolling, there is this rising pessimism. The question is whether they will buy the next 1 or 2% decline? I think they will, the problem is whether the crowd will buy more or speculate more. The latter would be the recipe for a correction.

In May 2006, the same roll over in the internals and somewhat put accumulation into the Fed decision led to a sell off and the crowd immediately speculated for a reversal on the decline heavily and the correction just kept going and became a downtrend afterwards.

If the people start to flip and speculate in the next decline all that sloshing liquidity in the bull side, there is a good chance that the decline can get legs. There is nothing better than a crowd buying the corrections and selling the rallies for the big brokers...

My liquidity measures show that a trading range until May with wide swings and bearish bias until a real correction begins in May or so that should go until the middle of the summer at least. Nothing has changed in my 10-12% correction view for the first 2-3 quarters in 2007...

- kisa

Edited by kisacik, 01 March 2007 - 03:34 PM.