7 replies to this topic

[eminimee]

gap up in the morning a run.....running stops after 4pm....gulp....I'm long 73 with a tight stop at 69.75...too tight I know...but I have a gut feeling of what's going on. Famous last words. EDIT: moving stop to 68.50

Edited by Teaparty, 05 March 2007 - 04:13 PM.

[endisnear]

cmon man...don't leave us hangin..whats going on? i think you're right..were in for a scorch of epic proportions.

[greenie]

gap up in the morning a run.....running stops after 4pm....gulp....I'm long 73 with a tight stop at 69.75...too tight I know...but I have a gut feeling of what's going on. Famous last words.

EDIT: moving stop to 68.50

You may be correct. When I have a good day and I am happy (my number of posts could be an indicator), the market takes me to the cleaners next day

Edited by greenie, 05 March 2007 - 04:20 PM.

[eminimee]

I think they gap it up because of where OEX closed...I don't think we drop below the last low. Scorch..maybe...but certainly not the bottom by any means yet.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$OEX&p=30&yr=0&mn=0&dy=5&i=p37580335287&a=89174413&r=7945.png

[hiker]

looking only at the data on those two charts, TEA....they seem to argue shorting bounces not buying a minor low retest....I know you may be looking at other views of this data....

Ted shows a horizontal support just below today's low for OEX -

http://www.tic-tac-d...RINDEXPAGE.html

Edited by hiker, 05 March 2007 - 04:54 PM.

[arbman]

tman, this is how I think it will happen...



Btw, the 0.382 retracement is at 628, I would think it will undershoot it with this momentum, the daily momentum just got insane into the closing, it is some sort of capitulation, but I think it is the beginning of the capitulation yet...

The 200 dma is at 621...

- kisa

Edited by kisacik, 05 March 2007 - 05:02 PM.

[eminimee]

Well.......another .50 below the globex low and I'm out .....I did well today just scalping both ways......I think my confidence level is getting a little too "up there" with the money made over the last week .......It's times like these you have to ask yourself...are you taking a position because of good risk/reward or taking one because you can afford to lose. That's not good. Reality check needed..... PS: kisacik, what's your downside target on oex?

Edited by Teaparty, 05 March 2007 - 05:40 PM.

[arbman]

I think 50 dma @ 621 is a good place for OEX to play a bounce at the moment. They need to bid the index well there, if they want to stop SPX at its 200 dma later... The semis bounced well in AH, I think there will be a gap and crap setup tomorrow morning, we might get a little rally but I highly doubt that a bottom that will last more than 2 days is in the making yet. SPX probably needs to go to 1345-1350 (200 dma and 40wk ma) region for a substantial bounce. Any bounce in between is probably to sell, I am trying to keep it simple. It is a 8% correction and probably good enough for a low for now. When the SPX went to the 200 dma last summer, the OEX ended up breaking below its 200 dma. So, 50% retracement at 616 is probably where OEX will stop too... These are preliminary since we didn't even see a bounce of significance yet, the trend and momentum is clearly down and there isn't even a slow down in the momentum indicated yet... - kisa