4 replies to this topic

[greenie]

Many of my sentiment measures turned heavily bearish suggesting a bit of rally. 1. Blogger's polls at tickersense are now back to 42% bearish. This one turned bullish in January after staying bearish for the entire rally. 2. I got two emails from my friends with forwarded news of subprime mortgage stories. All previous forwards from them were on jokes or funny news. 3. Yesterday's Colbert report on comedy channel covered subprime problems, Chinese markets. XMSR/SIRI and S&P drop. Hmmmm... 4. If you go to yahoo finance (http://finance.yahoo.com/), the main video on the top page has the caption: "Bear market. What is going on?" It is highly visible. I think at least few days of rally or chop is necessary. Do we visit new highs? Yesterday's poll here suggests that is what least people expect.

[S.I.M.O.N.]

would you be surprised if the gap from last tuesday's "crash" got filled and the dow made a new all-time high? lets say in the next 2 months

[eminimee]

pnf...I would be surprise if it didn't....in fact I'll be surprised if we don't break 1500 in the next few months

[greenie]

would you be surprised if the gap from last tuesday's "crash" got filled and the dow made a new all-time high? lets say in the next 2 months

Although nothing in this business surprises me any more , yes, I would consider that as a low probability option.

You made some good calls late last year. What gives you high confidence that the gap will be filled? Is it just that the 2 wave often can retrace most of 1 down (as you wrote in your blog), or is there something more?

Thx,
G.

[S.I.M.O.N.]

would you be surprised if the gap from last tuesday's "crash" got filled and the dow made a new all-time high? lets say in the next 2 months

Although nothing in this business surprises me any more , yes, I would consider that as a low probability option.

You made some good calls late last year. What gives you high confidence that the gap will be filled? Is it just that the 2 wave often can retrace most of 1 down (as you wrote in your blog), or is there something more?

Thx,
G.

unless the mkt really cracks this month and the dow goes below 11500, i got a setup on the quartertly timeframe, similar to setup in 98 , signals can fail so take with a ton of salt. Personally i would not short this mkt for the next few years even if my life depended on it.