16 replies to this topic

[da_cheif]

http://www.siliconin...?msgid=23342764
http://www.siliconin...subjectid=52296

[.Blizzard]

Interesting but... How (in %) is this index related to the Real Estate Market?

[eminimee]

Cheif ...did you see this request?...possible?
thanks
If possible ..could you post it here in this thread..or a new one.
http://www.traders-t...showtopic=67218

[arbman]

Cheif, this is 2004 all over, imho. This time the uncertainty that will resolve will be the short term Fed rates (down) at the second half of the year instead of an election. BTW, BDI is a lagging indicator, imho. The two largest corrections in 2004 and 2005 started when the BDI was at the top of their ranges... - kisa

[da_cheif]

Cheif ...did you see this request?...possible?
thanks
If possible ..could you post it here in this thread..or a new one.
http://www.traders-t...showtopic=67218

i missed that.......ill see if i can find a new one

Cheif, this is 2004 all over, imho. This time the uncertainty that will resolve will be the short term Fed rates (down) at the second half of the year instead of an election.

BTW, BDI is a lagging indicator, imho. The two largest corrections in 2004 and 2005 started when the BDI was at the top of their ranges...

- kisa

non of that is part of the stock market equation...of that i am certain

[Russ]

"As they say on CNBC, what does this mean for you? In this article from late last year, Howard Simons charted the index against the Dow Jones World Equity Stock Market Index and U.S. Treasury 10-year notes. His conclusion: "It's a very good leading indicator." Movements in the Baltic Index tend to precede movements in global stock markets. But the index also tends to presage higher interest rates. When more stuff is being shipped around the world, it needs to be financed. And that creates a greater demand for credit"
If you notice the BDI in 2000, the world stock index had gone down quite a bit but BDI was still going up, showing that the stock markets were the leading indicator for that slump in the economy.
Article Link:Freight Indices Steam Toward Recovery:
http://www.thestreet...c/10059743.html
Article Link: The Best Economic Indicator you've never heard of - http://www.slate.com/id/2090303/

Edited by Russ, 06 March 2007 - 11:30 AM.

[eminimee]

thanks Cheif..

[arbman]

non of that is part of the stock market equation...of that i am certain

Which one the rates or the BDI? I thought you are trying to imply something about the BDI. For the rates, I don't know how you measure the liquidity, but the operators have control over the market about 30-35% of the time, just enough to position themselves usually, the remaining 65% of the stock market IT moves come from the liquidity or the bond market.

The liquidity was drying prior to the top, you always ignored, but look at what was happening to the mortgage sector and the commercial credit growth to get a clue. Too bad, you don't want to learn anything new, you just want to teach, yet we learned from you. I made a killing when you were showing the sky and bashing my ideas just the same, btw. Therefore I suspect there is more downside...

- kisa

[Russ]

Edit to above, system won't let me edit more than once. In the case of the panic sell-off of 1998 the BDI was a leading indicator. Right now the BDI peaked in early 2005, so was that a leading indicator that the economy was starting to run on fumes?

[da_cheif]

non of that is part of the stock market equation...of that i am certain

Which one the rates or the BDI? I thought you are trying to imply something about the BDI. For the rates, I don't know how you measure the liquidity, but the operators have control over the market about 30-35% of the time, just enough to position themselves usually, the remaining 65% of the stock market IT moves come from the liquidity or the bond market.

The liquidity was drying prior to the top, you always ignored, but look at what was happening to the mortgage sector and the commercial credit growth to get a clue. Too bad, you don't want to learn anything new, you just want to teach, yet we learned from you. I made a killing when you were showing the sky and bashing my ideas just the same, btw. Therefore I suspect there is more downside...

- kisa

i implied nothing when it comes to the relationship between the bdi and the stock market........what it did point out tho was that those looking at an economic slowdown was at odds with what the bdi was pointing to.......the fact is however that if you put the bdi chart up against the weekly ad line of the primary market......you will see that they were indeed in synch.....with what most stocks were doing from march 2000.......as you will recall the weekly ad line started its meltup from its march 2000 low