5 replies to this topic

[NAV]

I think this one should be no different. Panics based on known fundamental issues like Yen carry trade, Subprime mortgage problems, Foreclosures, interest rate hikes in emerging markets et al - helping to build the wall of worry ! . When the markets reacts based on what joe and his brother knows as opposed to start discounting the future, it's a buying opportunity with 90% odds. Based on my weekly indicators, we should carve some kind of a "W" bottom over the next 1-2 weeks. I still beleive SPX will make all time highs sometime this year. In the ST, this technical bounce should carry us into SPX 1415-1418, before another retest of yesterday's bottom.

[PorkLoin]

NAV, was it even a "panic"? Percentagewise, and in terms of the number of days, I see nothing big yet. Glad to see you mention a test of the lows -- seems to me that if anything we ought to get that test, or even a break of the lows, as in an overall ABC from the high. Best, Doug

[NAV]

NAV, was it even a "panic"? Percentagewise, and in terms of the number of days, I see nothing big yet. Glad to see you mention a test of the lows -- seems to me that if anything we ought to get that test, or even a break of the lows, as in an overall ABC from the high.

Best,

Doug

Doug,

The non-linear response from 1460 can only be characterized as panic, when viewed in relation to the volatility preceding the move. In percentage terms, yes it's just a plain vanilla 5-6% correction so far. But the volume MCO, Breadth MCO, TRIN et al shows panicky characteristics.

Edited by NAV, 06 March 2007 - 08:29 PM.

[Russ]

"Panics invariably resolve upwards" I agree, however in 1929 it took until 1955 to get back to where it had been, about 25 years.

[da_cheif]

however in 2000 it took the nyse only a few months.....

[Russ]

No doubt about that, 2002 will look pretty small way down the road. Give it another 25 years or so and we could get another 90% bear.