P. S. Just realized that the word 'arsenal' comes from two words - 'arse' and 'anal'.
about bear traps
Started by
greenie
, Mar 13 2007 11:47 AM
5 replies to this topic
#1
greenie
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Posted 13 March 2007 - 11:47 AM
Folks, the market has changed after Feb 27th - recognize it. Before that, we had a long topping period, when the market dropped sharply, trapped a bunch of bears and then slowly came back up. This time, we are in real bear market - no traps any more. If at all, it is the time to trap bulls looking for bear traps.
The big people who would try to trap the bears (Goldman Sucks, Merrill bull, Bull Stearns) are running fast to cover their arses being hit by subprime tornedoes. Trapping bears is the last thing in their mind.
All in my humble opinion. I may have to eat crow at the end of the day for saying this
P. S. Just realized that the word 'arsenal' comes from two words - 'arse' and 'anal'.
P. S. Just realized that the word 'arsenal' comes from two words - 'arse' and 'anal'.
It is not the doing that is difficult, but the knowing
It's the illiquidity, stupid !
It's the illiquidity, stupid !
#2
fib_1618
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Posted 13 March 2007 - 12:09 PM
Don't you love 9 month lows?Folks, the market has changed after Feb 27th - recognize it. Before that, we had a long topping period, when the market dropped sharply, trapped a bunch of bears and then slowly came back up. This time, we are in real bear market - no traps any more. If at all, it is the time to trap bulls looking for bear traps.
Fib
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#3
arbman
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Posted 13 March 2007 - 12:30 PM
The best and vicious rallies also come in the bear markets Greenie, folks have the right to book and look to short again, even if they believe the trend is still down unless the market crashes and looking how much pain it was able to absorb so far, I doubt it... At the moment, I think the decline is impulsive enough to sustain through the close today, I would fade the bounces for now...
#4
LeroyB3
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Posted 13 March 2007 - 12:36 PM
This time, we are in real bear market
According to what verifiable metric? If price dropping 5% is your definition of the beginning a "real" bear market, there sure have been a lot of bear markets from 02-07.
Best,
LB
#5
Cirrus
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Posted 13 March 2007 - 12:49 PM
I just don't see the Fed and FCBs willing to allow liquidity to drop low enough for a bear market and substantially weaker economy. Right now they have to be careful of the US housing market and mortgaging banking sector. They simply can't afford a wipeout that takes out the US consumer. They will sacrifice some inflation to prevent a severe housing recession any day IMHO. That's what I think you'll see.
#6
Cirrus
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Posted 13 March 2007 - 12:49 PM
I just don't see the Fed and FCBs willing to allow liquidity to drop low enough for a bear market and substantially weaker economy. Right now they have to be careful of the US housing market and mortgaging banking sector. They simply can't afford a wipeout that takes out the US consumer. They will sacrifice some inflation to prevent a severe housing recession any day IMHO. That's what I think you'll see.
