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[VermeerUK]

Hi all If the global selling/volitility in the markets carries on into April then i'll probably have some change of opinion about the Yen carry-trade having started a major reversal a couple of weeks back...(but not! before April). Two reasons why i expected support for the Yen this month,and probably further support into mid-summer(July/August) also,imho. Reason #1....Japans fiscal year end is March 31,so tis obvious da big boys from the land o' the rising sun who borrowed cheap Yen to buy all things global would cash in some of their global chips for their end o' year balance sheets. Plus "actions speak louder than words".....I still haven't seen/heard anything from Japans government/BOJ that says the cheap borrowing cycle of the Yen these past few years has definately come to an end(FINISHED!) Yes exports are doing ok....but the Japanese consumer is still sluggish.....hence there's not even a hint of a hawkish stance regarding possible future rate-rises coming out of Japan.....Like i said we aint even getting "words" let alone any "action" where rates are concerned in Japan Reason #2.....I'm expecting some obvious run o' the mill..(but nothing major!) support for the Yen for the next few months because there are two elections on the horizon in Japan in the near future.......The first ones in April are i believe local municiple elections....The second round of elections are in July this year,and these are the much more important 'upper-house elections. Like i said before bring on April and lets see how the Yens acting then.....before i start to have a rethink regarding Japan. Just my OWN! basic thinking,that's all By the by.....I aint talking a 'Yen' (or any other) trade up here......Where currencies are concerned i'm what you might call as "Flat as a budgies t*t" at the mo'...... On a technical level regarding $/Yen....i personally can't see a major reversal taking place(Yen strengthening) this year until we at least have at least one re-test of the 1.20+ level first,imvho Regards & Be lucky V.

[VermeerUK]

Should've added>> The bottom-line is The Japanese Government and/or the Bank of Japan will tell the world when the Yen 'carry-trade' is definately over by their words and actions,and not before,imho. Regards.V