6 replies to this topic

[SemiBizz]

Just making sure we keep our signals straight. Some folks probably think this is over. Probably the same ones that thought I was crazy with the bullish spring call last night... Next Stop 11800.

[hiker]

11800 is also the value of the 260-day ema

[Jnavin]

SB's take fits my e-wave take.

[paulstan]

Well done, Semi -- what's your take at this juncture? . . . further up, or do you think we get a gap up and then resume the downtrend?

[SemiBizz]

Well done, Semi -- what's your take at this juncture? . . . further up, or do you think we get a gap up and then resume the downtrend?

The comparison candle is 3/6. Today on the DJIA, we made a new low on 10+% MORE VOLUME. That suggests weakness and another test to come. The high of that candle is 12220, on 10% better volume we failed to test it today... Whichever way we open tomorrow is probably going to be the wrong way is my best guess. The volume patterns (unless there is truly a reversal, and the jury is still out.) suggest strongly that the direction volume wants to move in is DOWN. If there is a gap up move, the first resistance for the DJIA is 12143. R2 12220. High probability that today's low gets tested.

I show 30 min and 3 min UP trends for DJIA. 30 min UP trend vs 3 min DOWN trend on Nasdaq.

The XAU gave a positive signal today by closing above the previous 2007 low. Today's activity does suggest some further probing under the 129.04.

So I guess anything can happen overnight or premarket these days. In most cases, unless the move is obvious like the Bullish Spring last night, then the thing to do is be ready with your Support numbers and resistance numbers, rather than try to forecast an otherwise psychotic market. I'm watching gold and $/Yen for clues.
And this IS Scam Week, so who knows maybe there's a lot less volume short squeeze setup?

I think you have to play it light, play it safe and don't go ALL IN without a pair of As or Ks.

Edited by SemiBizz, 14 March 2007 - 05:27 PM.

[sglasson]

Well done, Semi -- what's your take at this juncture? . . . further up, or do you think we get a gap up and then resume the downtrend?

The comparison candle is 3/6. Today on the DJIA, we made a new low on 10+% MORE VOLUME. That suggests weakness and another test to come. The high of that candle is 12220, on 10% better volume we failed to test it today... Whichever way we open tomorrow is probably going to be the wrong way is my best guess. The volume patterns (unless there is truly a reversal, and the jury is still out.) suggest strongly that the direction volume wants to move in is DOWN. If there is a gap up move, the first resistance for the DJIA is 12143. R2 12220. High probability that today's low gets tested.

Cool. . . Semi, Frac, xD etc... vs. Todd who said about today:

"As it turned out, the lows did hold and what we ended up with was a high volume reversal. There are no guarantees in this business, but that normally has bullish implications for the next several weeks. The next task for this market is to close above the levels of March 12. This will give us a pattern of ascending highs and ascending lows or an upward zig zag on the daily charts." (FYI Mar 12 DJIA hi 12349)ToddMarketForecast03/14/07

[pdx5]

S. Todd has been bullish from SPX 1460 something all the way down to 1370 something. His crystal ball needs windex.