4 replies to this topic

[eminimee]

Will continue to play these swings both ways.......that's how you play volatility........but still measuring wealth by BMW's and not Lear's to this point. OEX will probably head to 648/653 before final dump to 616.

Bottom will come in at least two weeks.

Thought you might have a close up of 1994....I wouldn't be surprised if the entire year goes something like this....

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$OEX&p=D&st=1993-08-01&en=1995-03-01&i=p50581820641&a=100827111&r=1371.png

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$OEX&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=21&i=p88894786002&a=91757908&r=4814.png

[securelstmile]

I love the story in Barton Biggs book, "Hedgehogs." where he describes a story about a hedge fund manager's daughter who when asked what she wanted for her birthday stated, "I want to fly on an airplane." the hedgehog replied, "But honey you have flown on planes many times." She said, "I want to fly on a commercial airline not the private jet." Just cracked me up.

[da_cheif]

Will continue to play these swings both ways.......that's how you play volatility........but still measuring wealth by BMW's and not Lear's to this point. OEX will probably head to 648/653 before final dump to 616.

Bottom will come in at least two weeks.

Thought you might have a close up of 1994....I wouldn't be surprised if the entire year goes something like this....

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$OEX&p=D&st=1993-08-01&en=1995-03-01&i=p50581820641&a=100827111&r=1371.png

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$OEX&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=21&i=p88894786002&a=91757908&r=4814.png

funny thing happened on the way to the crash....
the low close was on march 5th....the biggest up day in history can come at any time.....
overplaying ur bearish hand is not a good idea

[eminimee]

Bearish?....nope.... just smart.

Edited by Teaparty, 14 March 2007 - 09:23 PM.

[PorkLoin]

Worthy Teaparty, nice thread. One thing I was thinking is that the decline into yesterday's low looked awful impulsive. You've got it labeled as a "b" for the OEX. Or are the five waves I've got labeled "c" of that b, with the overall b starting on March 9, perhaps?

I probably have already glazed some eyes over with that.... Anyway, some indices made the highest highs after the March 5 low on the 12th, and after yesterday's turnaround my bullish antennae were perking up. Looks like five-wave declines for the SPX, WLSH, etc., too for that March 12 - 14 period, and if that was "C" of an overall ABC from the late February high, then it seems quite bullish to me. In the decline to yesterday's low, the bear forces couldn't even manage a .618 multiple of "A" if so....

Just speculating here and waiting to see what develops henceforth. Obviously there are possible bearish resolutions as well. I don't have a Lear or a BMW, but maybe I can get a cup of Starbuck's coffee.

Oh, look at this -- uranium oxide up another $6 to $91. One year ago it was $40. Sweet -- now I can drive to the airport and watch the Lears take off as I drink that coffee.


Best,

Doug