This is what I gleaned from sentiment and the calendar alone (published on Saturday):
Conclusion
In Friday's letter, I said that the gap was probably a fade and that while we'd probably close up on the day, I was doubtful of the initial staying power of the gap. I also advised of a T-4 Sell, but I wanted to see how the weekend data came out. We didn't get much help. There are lots of Bears. Of course, there SHOULD be lots of Bears. The level of Bearishness, as far as I can tell, hasn't reached those gut-wrenching levels that normally precede good lows. We've certainly got enough Bearishness to get more upside here, but not enough to have real confidence). My gut level read is that we have a just plain nasty all out scary decline next week. The problem is that it's expiration week and that's just not very high probability. Don't totally disregard this possibility, but our official call is going to be up on Monday, down on Tuesday, and then a turn and rally on Wednesday into Thursday and then sideways chop.
This is a time to play it close to the vest, and look both ways. I do not believe that this decline is typical of most and as such, may not play out normally. If I did think that we were in a normal correction, I'd be Bullish here. I'm of the opinion that some big player is in a spot of trouble and that probably won't be finished until we get a deeper decline as the rest of the sharks pile on.
