8 replies to this topic

[A-ha]

http://xtrends.blogs...round-1400.html

[espresso]

http://xtrends.blogs...round-1400.html

I believe there is more upside next few days...
I don't trade volume
Only mom!

[A-ha]

Neither do I... Volume is a product of price... When price gets accepted, it is reflected in volume. Just like other 100s of indicators... This doesnt mean I should not consider volume signals... Yesterday\'s so called \"reversal\" was not accepted as evident from the volume... So you may have a little round trip down there to get your next few points rally from here

Edited by xD&Cox, 15 March 2007 - 08:55 AM.

[arbman]

It is hard to call yesterday distribution, the volume momentum was lower than the previous days sell off. I would call yesterday a first step toward bottoming, not accumulation, not distribution. Just a day where the trend is starting to change. If today goes up the whole days with heavy volume though, I would not expect the price lows to be visited again for a while. I closed almost all of my short positions yesterday and now slowly buying long positions. I hope the final plunge you are predicting comes, I was actually predicting the test of the 200 dma on this move too, it is around 1345-1350 region now. I would rather buy on the way to the bottom than on the way up obviously. But the time to heavily short this market is probably now behind us... Good luck, - kisa

[A-ha]

It is hard to call yesterday distribution, the volume momentum was lower than the previous days sell off. I would call yesterday a first step toward bottoming, not accumulation, not distribution. Just a day where the trend is starting to change. If today goes up the whole days with heavy volume though, I would not expect the price lows to be visited again for a while. I closed almost all of my short positions yesterday and now slowly buying long positions. I hope the final plunge you are predicting comes, I was actually predicting the test of the 200 dma on this move too, it is around 1345-1350 region now. I would rather buy on the way to the bottom than on the way up obviously. But the time to heavily short this market is probably now behind us...

Good luck,
- kisa

I dont know why someone would want to consider the daily volume of a round trip day as a accumulation/distribution signal while the large portion of the volume could be on the one side of the market...

To be more clear, It is the intraday volume that I was talking about... not daily

Also I got the impression that folks think volume is the only factor in this.

It is not.

It is those major price breakdowns on weeklies that will dominate the tape in my opinion.

Volume is an indicator of conviction that is all

Edited by xD&Cox, 15 March 2007 - 09:22 AM.

[arbman]

OK, let me be very clear then, the odds to test the 50 dma or 200 dma for the major indices at this point is about 50-50, imho. If today we get a good volume up, it is going to tag 50dma and continue to DECLINE (I would probably get fully short there again). If it goes straight down to 200 dma from here (around mid next week), it is likely that a much longer lasting bottom is in the making since it will be a capitulation. Of course there will be backing and filling, if it declines straight down... That's how my system picks up the current configuration. I agree with you there is more downside likely, especially if the indices continue higher immediately from here for the intermediate term. That's why I am still keeping some shorts and but also looking for some good longs... - kisa

Edited by kisacik, 15 March 2007 - 09:31 AM.

[arbman]

Option volume and non customer volume ratios...

Date Customer Firm MarketMaker Non-Cust Ratio
20070216 0008783412 0002705938 0007986918 0.178572
20070220 0007594027 0002632633 0007920086 0.280372
20070221 0007004209 0002606246 0007046567 0.274387
20070222 0007774327 0002928919 0007641682 0.264533
20070223 0006508894 0002449900 0006566134 0.278076
20070226 0007273321 0002536730 0006961945 0.234280
20070227 0014691678 0004443298 0017454306 0.329074
20070228 0009819178 0003447189 0010449247 0.293403
20070301 0010422728 0003995191 0011890995 0.343913
20070302 0009376105 0003026027 0009566904 0.255447
20070305 0011383786 0003562418 0011333550 0.235781
20070306 0009209781 0004195834 0010500715 0.373337
20070307 0007780513 0003762768 0008209887 0.350143
20070308 0007812102 0003814808 0008030422 0.340485
20070309 0006746073 0003178529 0007558560 0.371704
20070312 0007123540 0005028138 0011083850 0.557873
20070313 0010319953 0004146928 0012362717 0.374914
20070314 0011782045 0004970787 0012727716 0.334291

I don't see much yesterday, neither in the open interest as reported by OCC, it is still at 13M net calls, not much increase in the institutional interest there yet either. I think we will only see a better bounce here, perhaps this is hardly the bottom. I expect another plunge in the open interest after the expirations, it might tell us what they really did early next week...

- kisa

Edited by kisacik, 15 March 2007 - 09:58 AM.

[sglasson]

I dont know why someone would want to consider the daily volume of a round trip day as a accumulation/distribution signal while the large portion of the volume could be on the one side of the market...

To be more clear, It is the intraday volume that I was talking about... not daily

Also I got the impression that folks think volume is the only factor in this.

It is not.

It is those major price breakdowns on weeklies that will dominate the tape in my opinion.

Volume is an indicator of conviction that is all

FYI from Steve Todd comment . . .

"As it turned out, the lows did hold and what we ended up with was a high volume reversal. There are no guarantees in this business, but that normally has bullish implications for the next several weeks. The next task for this market is to close above the levels of March 12. This will give us a pattern of ascending highs and ascending lows or an upward zig zag on the daily charts."

[arbman]

OK, here's my current thoughts, I will limit my long exposure and open any new option positions according to a test of the 20 and 50 dma over the next few sessions. If in fact, we get there I will turn these positions into the full hedges for the all in short for the following few weeks. I think we are now done half way through the correction and a better bounce is due.

The correction should have about 3-4 wks more to go thereafter and the final lows will be probably slightly below the 200 dmas imho. But we can get a good 20 wk cycle low rally starting anytime between now and FOMC over the next 2 wks. I will add to longs very gradually if we get a decline into FOMC. Again, these leveraged long positions will have a small overall portfolio exposure (less than 20%) with some hedging, if I see a plunge to 200 dma on the FOMC and thereafter I will probably go all in long since I will conclude that the 20 wk cycle low had a solid bottom...

The main strategy in all of this is to prepare long positions to short a mediocre rally to 50 dma into early April, possibly with the FOMC as a catalyst, and flip to long if we get a good plunge thereafter. That's my expectation...

So long is still the way to go for the very short term since this is still my road map...

- kisa