Quad witch, rebalancing...
Don't think anyone wants to do anything today other than settle their bets. If some people got shafted from this decline and are forced to liquidate due to margin, that will likely occur on monday.
Today, I don't expect anything other than flat the entire day.
It would be highly unusual for volatility today
Started by
dcengr
, Mar 16 2007 09:06 AM
5 replies to this topic
#1
dcengr
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Posted 16 March 2007 - 09:06 AM
Qui custodiet ipsos custodes?
#2
arbman
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Posted 16 March 2007 - 09:24 AM
I am going to close a few longs I had from yesterday, this leadership is terrible btw...
Gold, SPX, OEX, NDX, DJI, HHH, MID, RUT, SMH
The volatility indices are barely dropping too...
S&P 500's internal leadership is not bad though, it has its techs and financials leading there...
http://ichart.financ...,^IXB,^IXU&.png
By closing, I mean I am going to short more and make the gains a hedge...
- kisa
Gold, SPX, OEX, NDX, DJI, HHH, MID, RUT, SMH
The volatility indices are barely dropping too...
S&P 500's internal leadership is not bad though, it has its techs and financials leading there...
http://ichart.financ...,^IXB,^IXU&.png
By closing, I mean I am going to short more and make the gains a hedge...
- kisa
Edited by kisacik, 16 March 2007 - 09:32 AM.
#3
arbman
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Posted 16 March 2007 - 10:23 AM
Now I am closing half of the large short position and waiting to see whether the indices will bounce here...
(btw, I didn't say it above, but kind of obvious, the hedges stopped out as they crossed the zero lines)
(5 min later) I am going to put some of the hedge back on now though...
(10 min later) There, hedged on that blip lower, I think this might be it for the morning...
Let's see whether it bounces at all now...
- kisa
Edited by kisacik, 16 March 2007 - 10:32 AM.
#4
arbman
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Posted 16 March 2007 - 11:45 AM
I am reducing the short positions now to hedge the earlier long hedge now. 
Taking whatever profit left in them...
If I can get the hedges to break even I will close everything, this is really play money at the moment though...
I will think about what to do around 2:00pm again.
- kisa
Taking whatever profit left in them...
If I can get the hedges to break even I will close everything, this is really play money at the moment though...
I will think about what to do around 2:00pm again.
- kisa
Edited by kisacik, 16 March 2007 - 11:46 AM.
#5
arbman
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Posted 16 March 2007 - 11:58 AM
While thinking, I should probably sell some March call and put options too... 
#6
arbman
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Posted 16 March 2007 - 02:12 PM
I decided to buy some longs right now for a test of the 50 dma next week.
I am going to hedge them for a surprise in FOMC, but the surprises will probably come to the upside in FOMC...
I don't think the market will crash.
Again, not much change in my thinking, I think a rally until early April is a possibility now and I think we will see another round of declines in April. If we go straight down, I will also fully plunge in the long side next week. The market never makes it so easy though...
- kisa
