1 reply to this topic

[Shazzam]

I've been reading numerous comments here about sentiment right now, and there is no question we have some fear, high put/call ratios etc. My best tell for lows has always been the anchors on CBNC. They don't seem to be worried about the decline - today is a prime example - they spend the whole day talking about a "potential" Blackstone IPO. If they we had already made an important low they would be focusing on every up and down tick. Question for the board as energy stocks have held up well yet the commodity continues to go south. Are money managers hiding in energy or will energy lead to the upsdie going forward?

[PorkLoin]

Hi Shazzam,

I see us as in rather neutral ground right now. The easy and fast money made in the 2003-2005 time has given way to what is at least a decidedly two-way market now, one with a pretty good periodicity of late, a cycle of 3-4 months.

Long term I'm very bullish on energy - I think world demographics argue for that. Nuclear/uranium and electric power generation are strong; IMO the demand and long-term prospects there are more immediately bullish than for coal, oil and natural gas, and less likely to fluctuate.

Big coal, ACI, BTU, CNX, etc., had huge multi-year moves up into 2006, then in general got their share prices whacked in half. Now, are they resuming the long uptrend, or are they pausing in bear markets from last year? I think it could go either way.





Same for Oil and NG. Big moves down that I think scared out lots of money-managers. Both look half-decent (?) for having put in head-and-shoulders bottoms. They've recently turned down a little again, as has the $BPENER. If they keep making higher bottoms, that'd be bullish. My main concern as a bull is the threat of deflation and economic slowdown. EVen barring that, I think we may be in for a year or two of relatively sideways motion, and I like the more "defensive" and nice dividend-paying stocks for now.

Best,

Doug