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#1 spielchekr

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Posted 16 March 2007 - 09:21 PM

My spreadsheet tells me this...



During the 10-year period from 03/15/1997 to 03/15/2007:


Had you simply held your SP500 position...
you would have made...

596.57 points.



Had you always opened/closed your SP500 position...
at the end of the day...
on every 20ma rollunder/rollover day (respectively)...
you would have made...

130.47 points.



Had you always opened/closed your SP500 position...
at the end of the day...
one day prior to every 20ma rollunder/rollover day (respectively)...
you would have made...

2877.63 points.



One thing this says to me...

you definitely, absolutely, want to be the entity controlling the tape. :lol:


Edited by spielchekr, 16 March 2007 - 09:22 PM.


#2 traderpaul

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Posted 17 March 2007 - 10:33 AM

My spreadsheet tells me this...



During the 10-year period from 03/15/1997 to 03/15/2007:


Had you simply held your SP500 position...
you would have made...

596.57 points.



Had you always opened/closed your SP500 position...
at the end of the day...
on every 20ma rollunder/rollover day (respectively)...
you would have made...

130.47 points.



Had you always opened/closed your SP500 position...
at the end of the day...
one day prior to every 20ma rollunder/rollover day (respectively)...
you would have made...

2877.63 points.



One thing this says to me...

you definitely, absolutely, want to be the entity controlling the tape. :lol:

Can you do another one? Buy on the close and sell next morning (open)? With and without the MA....Should be interesting....

Edited by traderpaul, 17 March 2007 - 10:35 AM.

"Inflation is taking place now. Prices may not appear to be rising because they are making packaging smaller. "— Rickoshay

#3 doc

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Posted 17 March 2007 - 02:06 PM

My spreadsheet tells me this...



During the 10-year period from 03/15/1997 to 03/15/2007:


Had you simply held your SP500 position...
you would have made...

596.57 points.



Had you always opened/closed your SP500 position...
at the end of the day...
on every 20ma rollunder/rollover day (respectively)...
you would have made...

130.47 points.



Had you always opened/closed your SP500 position...
at the end of the day...
one day prior to every 20ma rollunder/rollover day (respectively)...
you would have made...

2877.63 points.



One thing this says to me...

you definitely, absolutely, want to be the entity controlling the tape. :lol:


It also points out how easy it is to make money by betting on knowledge of the future, rather than knowledge of the past. Even if that knowledge comes from placing your bet just "one day prior to". Maybe that's why the hardest thing to predict is the future! :D

#4 spielchekr

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Posted 17 March 2007 - 03:41 PM

Paul: no time this weekend for another project. Doc: Monday requires a closing price of 1456.8 on the SP500 for a 20ma rollunder. I can confidently go so far as to predict that Monday will not be the "one day prior to" day that I'd like to be long for. Not that it won't be an up day.

#5 spielchekr

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Posted 18 March 2007 - 12:35 PM

Can you do another one? Buy on the close and sell next morning (open)? With and without the MA....Should be interesting....





Given the way that opens & closes are printed in Yahoo for various indices, I went to Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) historical info to get a better picture. Comparing these two periods, looks like the Golden Era for overnight trading was somewhere between 5 & 10 years ago. But it's still superior. I did the 20ma roll days for the 5-year period only, and the 20ma's are of the daily open prices (overnight closes). Perhaps the best overnight method over the past 5 years has been to just buy the close and sell the open every single trading day in a brain-dead manner. Since I'm using ^IXIC here, I can't rightly do a final comparison between the likely best overnight method (buy close & sell open) and the liekly best market-hours method (sell EOD before every 20ma roll day).



10 year period from 3/15/1997-3/15/2007, using ^IXIC (Nasdaq composite).

simple buy & hold, price grew from 1265.17 to 2371.02..................1105.85 pts.

brain-dead~ buy every close and sell every open............................7179.46 pts.



5 year period from 3/15/2002-3/15/2007, using ^IXIC (Nasdaq composite).

simple buy & hold, price grew from 1868.3 to 2371.02.....................502.72 pts.

buy/sell at end-of-overnight upon overnight's print of a 20ma roll....286.91 pts.

buy/sell 1 day prior to such overnight prints with 20ma rolls.............775.19 pts.

brain-dead~ buy every close and sell every open.............................832.24



In any case, buying & selling end-of-session (day or night) upon the occurance of a 20ma roll, with any frequency, has got to be a very bad idea. Those are probably the epicenters of panic price movement in most cases.

#6 spielchekr

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Posted 22 March 2007 - 12:22 PM

Back of the napkin calculation...today will require a close of 1458 for yesterday to have been "the day". FYI.



Paul: no time this weekend for another project.



Doc: Monday requires a closing price of 1456.8 on the SP500 for a 20ma rollunder. I can confidently go so far as to predict that Monday will not be the "one day prior to" day that I'd like to be long for. Not that it won't be an up day.



#7 spielchekr

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Posted 26 March 2007 - 02:10 PM

Buy the close, anyone?



My spreadsheet tells me this...



During the 10-year period from 03/15/1997 to 03/15/2007:


Had you simply held your SP500 position...
you would have made...

596.57 points.



Had you always opened/closed your SP500 position...
at the end of the day...
on every 20ma rollunder/rollover day (respectively)...
you would have made...

130.47 points.



Had you always opened/closed your SP500 position...
at the end of the day...
one day prior to every 20ma rollunder/rollover day (respectively)...
you would have made...

2877.63 points.



One thing this says to me...

you definitely, absolutely, want to be the entity controlling the tape. :lol: