5 replies to this topic

[eminimee]

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=M&st=1994-01-01&i=p70196499137&a=60906880&r=2824.png

[HiFiGuy]

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=M&st=1994-01-01&i=p70196499137&a=60906880&r=2824.png

Hmmm, that MACD peak is showing negative divergence from that 2000 peak - must be a w5.

And is that a fractal i see??? 1995 to 2000 = 2003 to 2007.. looks like we're right at Aug 98... one last w5 of 5 and down we go into the next "2002" low. My guess - 2012.

but what do i know, i'm just sittin' here high on a friday night, gettin all insight full on yo'[bleeep]....

Edited by HiFiGuy, 16 March 2007 - 09:38 PM.

[HiFiGuy]

Here's my take, using a little Frac_Man, combined with a little eminimee.

FF:
Up to 1405,
Down to 1280
UP to 18500 (2010) 5 of 5 of 5...
Down to ?? uh oh.. (2012)


http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=M&st=1990-01-01&i=p40119879541&a=101033216&r=5761.png

Edited by HiFiGuy, 16 March 2007 - 10:17 PM.

[borland]

Well that's a nicely annotated monthly. Consider the Stochastic Energy for a clue to market direction... Look at the Nasdaq's monthly..... The stochastic has not dipped below the 20% line since 02'. It's overdue don't you think?



Then there's the weekly Stochastic Energy....notice how the energy slowly subsides with lower highs into oversold (20%). It does this in Jan 05, Aug 05, May 06, and today. Generally, a stochastic rise above 20% is your buy signal, but these were early signals for these periods.

So, I'm expecting more time for things to get settled. Specifically, I'd like to see a stochastic double bottom out of the 20% area, or a stochastic higher low before going long.

[kc135a]

Here's my take, using a little Frac_Man, combined with a little eminimee.

FF:
Up to 1405,
Down to 1280
UP to 18500 (2010) 5 of 5 of 5...
Down to ?? uh oh.. (2012)

Hi HiFi

I am doing it differently and coming up with almost the same answer.

1405? Maybe and maybe not.

First stop to about 1330 (11400) and to the 1280 (10750) area by late June-July.

Up up and away to 17500-20000 by April 2009-October 2009 with and outside chance of the final highs in 2010.

And then? Down to oh no with a major bottom 2012 and the final bottom 2014.

After the current correction is complete this summer it is going to be some ride up and then down.

KC

[Russ]

These kind of panic sell-offs are normally over in 6 weeks, it is keeps going down into july that would argue bear market, which I doubt we are going into. R

Here's my take, using a little Frac_Man, combined with a little eminimee.

FF:
Up to 1405,
Down to 1280
UP to 18500 (2010) 5 of 5 of 5...
Down to ?? uh oh.. (2012)

Hi HiFi

I am doing it differently and coming up with almost the same answer.

1405? Maybe and maybe not.

First stop to about 1330 (11400) and to the 1280 (10750) area by late June-July.

Up up and away to 17500-20000 by April 2009-October 2009 with and outside chance of the final highs in 2010.

And then? Down to oh no with a major bottom 2012 and the final bottom 2014.

After the current correction is complete this summer it is going to be some ride up and then down.

KC