6 replies to this topic

[arbman]

I sold the opening (OIH)... I am disappointed by the follow though of the other indices as well... This is a day to VST trade...

Edited by kisacik, 19 March 2007 - 09:09 AM.

[arbman]

stopped out of this position with the further b/o, only keeping longs for now... I actually like that the NDX gained more leadership on the second b/o attempt...

[arbman]

I am not sure this is a good and sustainable rally, I think it needs more volatility here, the only stuff led was the inflationary issues... - kisa

Edited by kisacik, 19 March 2007 - 11:55 AM.

[arbman]

The energy is leading, the NDX is at the bottom of the gainers among the senior averages. Within NDX, the tech components are all lagging. Within the SPX, the financials, energy and materials are leading. The industrials and technology are underperforming. RUT is up obviously because of its heavy financial and material weighting. In short, the Fed rescued the recent mortgage banking problems by injecting liquidity into the system, the excess liquidity is going straight into the gold and oil and the oversold financials are leading. The real growth must be near zero, imho... It is hard to know how much more money can come and get sucked in here, I would say up to 20/50dmas are good resistance areas here, I think it will go there fast and come back down fast too unless the avove picture changes drastically... - kisa

[arbman]

The option premiums, especially on RUT, are extremely high ahead of the FOMC, the premiums barely moved down despite the rally. I think a very steep sell off is a possibility this week... As I said before, I will turn any further gains into an hedge for a fully short position, especially if the indices go to the 50 dma region in the next few days with this kind of leadership. The internals just crossed the zero lines for a trend change, but this is also where a reversal can occur with the rejection at the neutral readings... Good luck, - kisa edit: typo

Edited by kisacik, 19 March 2007 - 04:32 PM.

[PorkLoin]

First off, does anybody know why Brent North Sea crude now is at a premium to WTIC? Used to be the other way around.




Kisa, maybe the energy stocks "know" a bullish move is coming, but I'm not very trusting here, although I guess the stocks should lead the products. This latest move down in oil is not impressing me as being a bullish pattern. Could still be a Head and Shoulders bottom, and $NATGAS looks better for such, but one wonders...




Doug

[arbman]

There is nothing bullish, imho. This market looks like shiyt to me, this whole move in the resources is in response to the under the table rescue that the Fed had to do for the banking melt down. I mean really, this market is at the verge of a significant decline again... How do I know? The open interest came out as 7M net call contracts! This is lower than the past 3 years. The total open interest is also at the multi-year lows now after the last week's expirations. There is absolutely no interest in buying this market by the institutional investors. There is a serious deficit in the commercial interest in the futures too... - kisa