10 replies to this topic

[airedale88]

SPX nominal 5 wk cycle price projection 1426 +/- 6.2 pts.

[arbman]

Yes and the 50 dma is also at 1424, I think it will hit there in 2 days (left translation) and then it tops for a week, imho.

- kisa

[Russ]

60 minute vix channels are looking like they are not going any lower, tick declining, yen rising, nikkei closed it gap, xau closed its gap...things are not looking too sweet auntie M.

Yes and the 50 dma is also at 1424, I think it will hit there in 2 days (left translation) and then it tops for a week, imho.

- kisa

[arbman]

I am accumulating the short positions, I hope I won't have to chase it down... I really want my hedges to come significantly into the money first since I am going to load up the shorts much larger than before if this market structure continues... - kisa

[arbman]

I have 1 unit NDX 1700 calls for April, I hedged them with 25 units SMH April 35 Puts (hypothetical amounts), the dollar ratio is around 3:1 now (deltas are around 0.7 at the moment), If the market tanks immediately, I will chase down for a ST trade. If the market rallies to 50 dmas, I will load up the NDX at the money puts for May around 4:1 dollar ratio. Then I can ride some pain before I give up the positions, if it continues up. I think any sell off will develop very quickly there since it will be a bearish recognition and break down... I think the yen carry trade issues must be priced in already, so we will see the reaction to the Fed's message, I don't think the message will be bearish immediately, but the implications will be bearish meaning an economic slow down recognized by the Fed for the longer term. This is not this quarter or next quarter, but usually several quarters out, or about a year. This would be clearly bearish and the first 1 or 2 rate cuts would not stop the market declines either... I find this scenario more likely. The less likely scenario is if the Fed does not change its bias and says the economy is still strong and the sub-prime problems will not spill to the prime mortgages, I think the market will sell off first anyway due to the rate concerns, but then rally much stronger to a climax top... Some thoughts... - kisa

Edited by kisacik, 20 March 2007 - 02:04 PM.

[airedale88]

geez kisa, fundamentals on a cycle post? LOL. we're 4 days along in a 6/7 day cycle that's showing high right translation. Hurst would suggest that the sum of larger cycles is up. don't think you're gonna get your lower low short term.

[arbman]

I don't think either (meaning a lower low immediately here), that's why I keep a ST trading position with bullish bias at the moment, but I think if it tops, it will happen until early April, or about 2-3 wks from the 20 wk cycle low. My time frame for the larger positions is always intermediate term, it would be for May for the 10 wk low... If the market keeps going higher, I will take my profit when due and do it again for a trading position again (I trade this actively now) or start building my IT shorts, I will not be probably fully capitalizing on this rally, but it is still the best odds for the accounting purposes, imho... - kisa

Edited by kisacik, 20 March 2007 - 02:24 PM.

[arbman]

I sold the NDX longs at the gap up open, riding the SMH shorts now, I have a feeling that things will change after the Fed, but I have several hours to think about it. This is a small position...

Edited by kisacik, 21 March 2007 - 08:48 AM.

[arbman]

I also closed the SMH shorts for break even. If the bears can not push lower from here, the market will most likely rally after the FOMC, for now I am flat and stress free

[airedale88]

SPX nominal 5 wk cycle price projection 1426 +/- 6.2 pts.

that was easy.