11 replies to this topic

[denleo]

Fine rally. Breadth is great, price structure is fine... But volume is low too days in a row. And in general it is low on up days and high on down days. I am long, but this concerns me. I would like to ask people who are more bullish than me, if this is a concern or should I forget about it. Denleo

[greenie]

Fine rally. Breadth is great, price structure is fine...

But volume is low too days in a row. And in general it is low on up days and high on down days. I am long, but this concerns me. I would like to ask people who are more bullish than me, if this is a concern or should I forget about it.

Denleo

fuggedaboutit - sentiment and CLX say rally to Dow 30000

[Bandit]

Fine rally. Breadth is great, price structure is fine...

But volume is low too days in a row. And in general it is low on up days and high on down days. I am long, but this concerns me. I would like to ask people who are more bullish than me, if this is a concern or should I forget about it.

Denleo

I think volume is important, but Options Expiry on Friday drove higher volume on that down day. It would be nice to see volume go up if the S&P can continue breaking through 1410. Closed right on it today. Would love to see it close over it again tomorrow on higher volume.

I think a lot of shorts have stops between 1410 & 1415 on the S&P. If it moves up through that zone, volume will have to pick up as shorts are stopped out have to cover.

Bandit

[hiker]

conisder a sub to Larry Williams

[VolPivots]

http://stockcharts.c...85689&r=389.png

[flyers&divers]

We are 10 trading days from the bottom and the ETF's have not retraced even half of the ground lost. Not knowing the larger picture, like some people on this board do, just looking at the low volume up days - and contracting ranges I might add - a chartist can only be bearish. The key could be momentum. If the market can not be pushed down in these conditions from these levels the shorts will get nervous and have to cover. There is a degree of unreality reading the board sometimes - like in this case - when even a very clearcut chart pattern is suspect. This kind of ABC daily pattern seldom resolves itself in a quick up. So at best it will creep up a bit or after more sideways or a little pullback it may take off but for the next few days I see little risk being short. A good swing position is which is made from a good vantage point. This spot on the daily chart is a clear vantage point for a short probe. And one more thing: The very first pullback after a quick reversal is the highest probability trade (this is true ID also)on any time scale of all swing trades because the element of surprise is still present. I do not have a position overnight because I am scalping ER2 and CL but if they would put a gun to my head and I had to choose I would sell this without hesitation. Here, I stuck my neck out. Regards, F&D PS: marketneutral's chart above illustrates the concept very well.

Edited by flyers&divers, 20 March 2007 - 05:33 PM.

[Jnavin]

I think the low volume is a concern if you're a bull here. Another up day on light volume would be a set-up for another sell-off, in my opinion. An up day on heavy volume changes the picture entirely.

[flyers&divers]

Denleo, BTW I admire your ability to call IT moves with the accuracy you have done in the 2or 3 years I have followed your posts. Best, F&D

[arbman]

Volume will show up tomorrow.

[denleo]

Thanks F&D, As far as IT is concerned, I am not sure, but something tells me that we can not avoid meeting 200-day MA and possibly May 06 highs. Which means this ABC type up move should be over soon and another sell off will take place before the end of the month or before April expiration. The problem with this is liquidity. Money don't mean much on Wall Street (sounds crazy). There is too much money and FED keeps giving it to anybody who asks. This has been the case for several years, and as we all know, shorting the market for more than a couple of days is not a good idea. Denleo