9 replies to this topic

[mmm]

I will not go over the latest stats for why Da bears are in trouble other than to refer to this board. As I stated in previous postings this board tells me a lot where we are. The fear is tremendous from my viewing of the posts and the readership of the posts. The bearish posts still get the greatest reads. Look at Fractal Man's latest post of his fractal crash beginning on Monday. So far he has 920 views with 14 responses. The other bearish posts also have higher reads. The intensity of these posters also is a clue since they are so insistent on their opinion. Over the last 3 year or greater that I have followed these posts I would say the bottom is in at least for the intermediate term. I will state once more that this is no disrespect to these posters since I have a great deal of admiration for their trading experience and knowledge. At these bottoms it is rarely the same individuals that make these posts. That is; the names may change but the story is the same. Despite the criticism I have gotten for stating these opinions I think it is time to state the other side from a trader who does not view the market in terms of bear or bull. I trade both sides as I see it. Right now the trend is up. We will have some sort of retest of the bottom but my models say the retest will be rather weak. Mr market will show us the way. Dennis

[89S10]

I think the bears would be estatic if the market pulled back one percent, let alone a retest of the recent bottom.

Inasmuch as many of the traders are very focused on the short term, what is important is what happens Monday and Tuesday, and then into month end.

Traders with a bearish tilt can make money, even if the market ends up substantially higher in the coming months.

Here is one reason why many short term traders have a bearish tilt: They are more terrified of holding a long position than they are a short position, especially over night, presumably because of the fat tails on the short side of the return distribution.

This fear is justified by market expectations. A five percent out-of-the-money call (June 150) on SPY has an implied volatility of 9.2%. Meanwhile, a five percent out-of-the-money put (June 136) on SPY has an implied volatility of 16.1%. Source http://www.theocc.com.

Trading from the short side can also offset losses incurred on core long holdings during market declines.

A preponderance of bears may reflect a tendency to use more leverage. I am guessing that the bulls use less leverage, allowing them to take sharp market declines in stride.

So I see no reason why there should be conflicts, although they may occur after sharp moves that cause losses to one side or the other. This could easily be the case now.

I hope this post is seen as constructive. I have traded for many years and have exhibited virtually every possible trader pathology, and I still get into trouble from time to time.

Edited by 89S10, 24 March 2007 - 10:17 PM.

[Frac_Man]

I'm simply following my system ..... it's telling me a turn is due ..... then I follow the next signal ...

The Hankster

I will not go over the latest stats for why Da bears are in trouble other than to refer to this board. As I stated in previous postings this board tells me a lot where we are. The fear is tremendous from my viewing of the posts and the readership of the posts. The bearish posts still get the greatest reads. Look at Fractal Man's latest post of his fractal crash beginning on Monday. So far he has 920 views with 14 responses. The other bearish posts also have higher reads. The intensity of these posters also is a clue since they are so insistent on their opinion. Over the last 3 year or greater that I have followed these posts I would say the bottom is in at least for the intermediate term. I will state once more that this is no disrespect to these posters since I have a great deal of admiration for their trading experience and knowledge. At these bottoms it is rarely the same individuals that make these posts. That is; the names may change but the story is the same. Despite the criticism I have gotten for stating these opinions I think it is time to state the other side from a trader who does not view the market in terms of bear or bull. I trade both sides as I see it. Right now the trend is up. We will have some sort of retest of the bottom but my models say the retest will be rather weak. Mr market will show us the way.

Dennis

[klono]

I click his posts because I know who he is, I understand his fractal, and he has been accurate in the past. I would much rather be long at 1329 than here if there is a choice. By the way (twt), waiting until Monday does not require that much patience to see if he is correct.

Edited by klono, 25 March 2007 - 07:27 AM.

[nimblebear]

I will not go over the latest stats for why Da bears are in trouble other than to refer to this board. As I stated in previous postings this board tells me a lot where we are. The fear is tremendous from my viewing of the posts and the readership of the posts. The bearish posts still get the greatest reads. Look at Fractal Man's latest post of his fractal crash beginning on Monday. So far he has 920 views with 14 responses. The other bearish posts also have higher reads. The intensity of these posters also is a clue since they are so insistent on their opinion. Over the last 3 year or greater that I have followed these posts I would say the bottom is in at least for the intermediate term. I will state once more that this is no disrespect to these posters since I have a great deal of admiration for their trading experience and knowledge. At these bottoms it is rarely the same individuals that make these posts. That is; the names may change but the story is the same. Despite the criticism I have gotten for stating these opinions I think it is time to state the other side from a trader who does not view the market in terms of bear or bull. I trade both sides as I see it. Right now the trend is up. We will have some sort of retest of the bottom but my models say the retest will be rather weak. Mr market will show us the way.

Dennis

It has over 1300 views. Wow !

[Russ]

Look at Vecor's bullish post 845 views and the guy doesn't know what he is talking about. He is da cheif's sycophant.

[thespookyone]

MMM- I can't speak for others, but I clicked on Hanks post out of respect for his knowledge. Before I took my very recent short positon in the QQQQ's by buying puts when the Q's where in the 44.35 range, I had contacted Hank. From the recent bounce off the bottom it appeared that the SPX could bounce another 20 to 25 points, giving me a better short location. I asked Hank his opinion. He was kind enough to respond, and agreed that the bounce was likely, and the area I wanted to short from would be reached=and would indeed be a good location. So far, so good-it was hit, and I'm short. It was not, however Hanks fractal charts alone that drove me to my position. In my particular counting of the elliott wave on the Q's, it seemed we had gone through an a and b,and were on our way to complete c of 2-headed for a serious 3 down wave. I believe that count to STILL be correct, although I have seen others waver. I believe c to now be complete, and the 3 wave down is ready to commence. The beauty of this is that most of us know what a true wave 3 down looks like, and after it gains the proper speed and volume-any other labeling of it will have little basis. The tiny volume on the heilum up move on the Q's would seem to support my case, minus the big volume up move on Fed misinterpretation day-which is actually quite the norm. By the way-what an incredible SPIN interpretation that was-OH MY. Inflation not likely to subside, but mom and dad see rate cuts coming-my,what an Alice in Wonderland approach the bulls are taking! Unfortunately, beneath the surface lies the WORST bredth day the market has ever seen. Many were quick to blow that off as meaningless,but, as I have traded for a living for over 25 years-I am NOT in that camp. When the PPT stepped out of the way on the Q's the last five minutes Friday, it,in my opinion gave a view to the next two weeks, in the speed that will accompany this drop-it will be brutal. I'll know soon if my Q count was right or wrong-as will most objective traders. If my count is correct, I have a feeling that Hanks fractals will turn out to be deadly accurate here. In fact, I have my money where my mouth is-on both. Good trading to all. Thespookyone.

Edited by thespookyone, 25 March 2007 - 09:29 PM.

[redfoliage2]

I will not go over the latest stats for why Da bears are in trouble other than to refer to this board. As I stated in previous postings this board tells me a lot where we are. The fear is tremendous from my viewing of the posts and the readership of the posts. The bearish posts still get the greatest reads. Look at Fractal Man's latest post of his fractal crash beginning on Monday. So far he has 920 views with 14 responses. The other bearish posts also have higher reads. The intensity of these posters also is a clue since they are so insistent on their opinion. Over the last 3 year or greater that I have followed these posts I would say the bottom is in at least for the intermediate term. I will state once more that this is no disrespect to these posters since I have a great deal of admiration for their trading experience and knowledge. At these bottoms it is rarely the same individuals that make these posts. That is; the names may change but the story is the same. Despite the criticism I have gotten for stating these opinions I think it is time to state the other side from a trader who does not view the market in terms of bear or bull. I trade both sides as I see it. Right now the trend is up. We will have some sort of retest of the bottom but my models say the retest will be rather weak. Mr market will show us the way.

Dennis

Insstead the bottom is in for the IT term, I see the top was in for the IT term.

[Vector]

if one more pullback is still out there don't let it fool ya...COT right now is as long (bullish) as it was in the Fall of 2005. anyone short is eventually going to get their doors blown off.

Edited by Vector, 26 March 2007 - 09:12 AM.

[Russ]

COT commercials are still short as of Mar 20.

if one more pullback is still out there don't let it fool ya...COT right now is as long (bullish) as it was in the Fall of 2005.

anyone short is eventually going to get their doors blown off.