6 replies to this topic

[Darris]

We have discussed some of the recent net cash flow moves at Rydex with a focus on the NDX Dynamic Fund. The 2x Long fund received a moderate $60 million yesterday, so what are the End of Day results when only the NDX 2x Dynamic funds (short or long) receive an inflow of $40 million or more (Oct 27, 2006 thru March 26, 2007): -- 17 Long Losses for 155 NDX pts -- 8 Short losses for 112 NDX pts -- 19 Long Wins for 262 NDX pts -- 8 Short Wins for 96 NDX pts Again no idea what these folks do at the 10:30am cut off, so the assumptions are based on end of day NDX cash index price changes, and the magnitude of the bet is not used to smooth the loss or gain. I will venture a guess, that today, the NDX will close down by the close.

[OEXCHAOS]

That's fair enough. The sentiment is a tough read in here, though. Lots of cross currents. Ideally, we'll get a decline of some magnitude that builds more excessive Bearishness. M

[kemo1k]

OEXCHAOS, have you noticed an exit from Rydex, in general asset levels, with the gaining popularity of other 2X vehicles like QID/QLD?

[OEXCHAOS]

OEXCHAOS,

have you noticed an exit from Rydex, in general asset levels, with the gaining popularity of other 2X vehicles like QID/QLD?

Big time! Almost $1.5BILLION (with a "B") over past 18 months. It has rendered one of my analysis methods nearly useless. I had a neatly quantified system, too.

Oh, well. On to figuring out the QID/QLD!

Mark

[spielchekr]

I still notice that intraday prices gravitate around the 10:45 prints, which is Rydex's AM pricing time. In fact, they're doing it now as I post this. Old habits (like this ritual) are hard to break.

[Darris]

Just to close this thread out, the Rydex dynamic NDX long took a 13 pt loss yesterday based on the NDX closing price index. For today, there is no large position in play, so we will see if today's action creates interest one way or the other for a position on Thursday.

[OEXCHAOS]

Amateurs were actually BUYING, for the most part. No pessimism there. Mark