10 replies to this topic

[Chilidawgz]

[Chilidawgz]

so, are we going down?

[jmicou]

Getting ready to hit the road. Just wanted to say, check out the ARMS and so other internals to 87. The "crash" may have already occurred with relatively minor price damage. Yet, the market is not out of the woods for more downside pressure. So far, a corrective process. Many have become accustomed to fairly narrow range days with little volatility.

[prman]

What are the criteria -- or the methodology in assigning -- the A to F,G or whatever tops? This is quite interesting, but hard to evaluate without some knowledge of the rules of the game.

[Chilidawgz]

What are the criteria -- or the methodology in assigning -- the A to F,G or whatever tops? This is quite interesting, but hard to evaluate without some knowledge of the rules of the game.

That is the Chapman Wave:

http://chapmanwave.t...ducing_the.html
http://chapmanwave.t...om/chapmanwave/

[HiFiGuy]

Every dip was a buying opportunity. Sound familiar?

[PorkLoin]

I think we had more warning in 1987, though it'd depend on what one was looking at.



Now, are those EMAs going to turn up convincingly?

Doug

[OEXCHAOS]

I don't know that this was your thrust, Chili, but the 87 period was pretty different from the current. I was actually looking for an analog there, too, but it's not forthcoming, at least not yet. I was a broker in partnership with my dad back then. I remember, big name stocks up big day after day. Better "values" languished or even went down. The A/D line lagged badly. Valuations were up there. It felt "artificial" but it wouldn't go down. Interest rates started rising, then we got a sell from Sedge Coppock's Timing Technique for Texas Traders in late August, I think. Then we got the first big down day in September (19th? I seem to remember my first squash lesson that day. I owned a passel of OEX puts and thought that I should play more squash--it was good for my account). Then we bounced and it still felt sick. I remember talking with my father at the end of the first week of Oct. and asking him how we would handle our business in the event of a Crash. (I'm serious, he still shakes his head about that one). In any case, this market is almost the opposite. Interest rates are stable and pretty low and breadth is hellish. Even shorting "crap" can get your naughty bits handed to you if you're not careful. Mark

[Chilidawgz]

Hi Mark,

Yes it's not the same as '87. Pulled up this article this morning.

http://www.sonic.net...Crashof1987.doc

Edited by Chilidawgz, 27 March 2007 - 10:11 AM.

[Chilidawgz]

Try this link

1987

It feels a bit like the current market is at a point where a significant correction can occur at any time but I am not calling for a crash.

Chili (Ron)

Edited by Chilidawgz, 27 March 2007 - 10:17 AM.